theshoe72

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@1769_alex Wild turkey

[Jeffrey P. Snider @JeffSnider_EDU]

Something strange is happening in markets, and almost nobody is watching it.

US stocks are surging. Tech is euphoric. Semiconductors are going vertical. The party is back on.

Except in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng is falling hard, going the opposite direction.

That matters, because Hong Kong is the money gateway into China and across Asia. Money flows through it when people believe in China, when trade is strong, when dollars are easy.

So ask the uncomfortable question. What is Hong Kong seeing that everyone else is ignoring?

The answer is in China's credit markets. For new credit, bonds have now passed bank loans for the first time. About 30% of the credit stock in May, a record.

The official spin is modernization. China moving from property to a high-tech, capital-markets future. It sounds reassuring.

It is not. Here is what they leave out.

Bank lending creates money. A loan makes a new deposit, new purchasing power, on the spot. Bond issuance does not. Someone buys the bond with savings that already exist. It just moves money around.

So bonds can only cushion the fall. They cannot replace the credit that banks are no longer creating.
And the banks are pulling back for a reason. A slow-motion credit crisis. As many as 100 million consumers struggling to service their debt. Bad household loans up 21% to a record 2.2 trillion yuan. Nearly 11% of adults behind on payments.

Now ask who is issuing all these bonds. Not companies expanding. The government, borrowing to paper over the gap.

That is not modernization. Heavy government issuance means the private sector is too scared to borrow, so the state steps in. That is desperation.

We have seen this movie. Post-2008 US and Europe. Banks retreated, bonds backstopped, and the economy got the silent depression anyway.

That is what Hong Kong is pricing. Not a recovery. Bonds are not the sign China solved its problems. They are the sign the banks can no longer carry them.

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@TheBronxViking @unusual_whales

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@market_sleuth

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@salmaogs

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@DarioCpx Let’s fast forward
To the 9th ,12th and 16th

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@WhaleInsider Rocket man feeling all left out

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@1769_alex

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@HazelAppleyard We thought the same here in Canada when Turdeau resigned. Careful what you wish for. Carney(Carnage)is 10x worse.

[Options selling with Christian @optionscjp]

I am NOT a memory bear

However

All I need to know to not chase this trade at all-time highs is the fact that every single person on this app is on the same side of the trade

Pass for me.

Way too many people just looking at the headline low PE number and thinking it’s a good trade

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@salmaogs $KN

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@MichaelPBento Same here had like 4 alone this week. Totally ignoring my no solicitation sign

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@colin_gladman Exactly just the typically weekend theatre

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

It looks like that after GPUs, DRAMs and CPUs the buying frenzy is now moving onto MLCCs

For those who enjoy chasing bubbles, these are the companies making MLCC listed in US:

- Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. $VSH
- Knowles Corporation $KN

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@TheBronxViking Get the cjc

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@1769_alex USA vs England final. Better yet USA vs Iran

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@cdntradegrljenn I have renamed it to hummus

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@MichaelPBento

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@1769_alex AMC😉

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@MichaelPBento And now this

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

U.S. Vice President JD Vance has cancelled his trip to Switzerland, according to a spokesman.

"As the Vice President said at his press conference, the plans for the upcoming technical talks have not been finalized, and the U.S. delegation has been prepared to depart at the first available opportunity. But the logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable. As of now the Vice President is not departing tonight. We will let you know as soon as we have a concrete update about next steps.”

[theshoe72 @theshoe72]

@MichaelPBento https://t.co/vXwuZek7Uh

Thought it already started

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran has suspended its entire 60-day negotiation period with the US over the direct violation of the MOU's first clause, with Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon constituting a breach less than 24 hours after the MOU was electronically signed, per Fars and Al-Mayadeen.

Iran's negotiating delegation had already been preparing to depart for Switzerland to launch the first round of talks before Iran made the decision to suspend the entire trip.

Iran will also not unilaterally fulfill its commitments, and until Iran is fully assured Israeli attacks on Lebanon have stopped and the US has practically adhered to the first-clause obligations, talks remain cancelled.