The Smart Yield

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[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

The funds decide it, because owners do not redeem on a Tuesday. If the spot funds lose another $500 million over five sessions, the shelf is borrowed money (KuCoin, Nov 12).

Share this with the trader still buying the dip.

#Crypto #ETF #Leverage

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

Which seller is in the tape, the owner or the borrower? Bitcoin sits near $73,600 after an 8.3% slide (Moneycontrol, Nov 12) #Bitcoin. Only one of those two can survive a bad week.

What does the flow say?

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

The biggest wallets kept buying. TokenPost puts wallets holding 100 to 10,000 coins at accumulation scores above 0.5. Support sits at $73,100 to $73,500, with $75,500 the level to reclaim (https://t.co/l3AkBv8Der, Nov 12).

How do you tell them apart?

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

A closed strait would, and nothing else does. If the front-month contract trades more than $1 above the next month for a week, the market is pricing a shortage (CME, Nov 12).

Bookmark the slide before the next inventory print.

#Energy #Crude #OPEC

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

Which number won in October, the barrels or the attacks? The price fell anyway, and the reason matters. Brent fell to $91.29 while 37 ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC, Nov 12) #Oil.

So why did the price fall?

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

The surplus shows up in the American Petroleum Institute's count, which rose 9.0 million barrels in a week (CNBC, Nov 12). Traders left the war premium before the peace talks started, and the slide continued.

What would bring the premium back?

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

Central banks are still buying. If the ETFs lose $2 billion over three weeks, the official bid is not absorbing the selling (mitrade, Nov 12).

Vote on the metal you would rather hold.

#Metals #Dollar #Rates

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

Gold fell below $4,000 because the dollar broke out. Official buyers have not stopped. Spot sits near $3,975 as the dollar index hit a 19-month high at 102.9 (CNBC, Nov 12) #Gold.

Why does a stronger dollar pull metal down?

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

That message shows up in the ten-year at 4.98%, after touching 5.00% this week (Treasury, Nov 12). Higher yields raise the cost of holding metal that pays nothing.

So who is still buying?

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

Spending shows up in interest. Interest reached $846 million, up from $310 million (company release, Nov 10). If exit run-rate revenue lands below $20 billion, the backlog is not converting.

Send this to the AI bear.

#Cloud #Capex #Debt

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

The AI trade did not break last month, yet one balance sheet did. CoreWeave shares rose 24.7% to $60.77 in a single session, its best day in 17 months (Yahoo Finance, Nov 11) #CoreWeave.

So how did the quarter look?

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

That spending is covered by signed contracts. Backlog reached $132.5 billion, and customers will prepay about $9 billion within three months (https://t.co/j2oxIiApd5, Nov 10).

Where does the cash gap show up?

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

The first day will settle the argument. If the placement is trimmed below $20 billion at pricing, the strategic money was a prop (Guardian, Nov 10).

Tag the investor who would take the placement price.

#IPO #AI #Semis

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

Private buyers set the price in May, yet the public must pay more. Anthropic set the range at $70 to $78 a share (TechCrunch, Nov 10) #Anthropic. That is $1.404 trillion at the top.

What did the May round price it at?

[The Smart Yield @thesmartyield]

The offering comes with $26 billion of non-voting stock at the same price. Nvidia and Google each committed $10 billion of it (Yahoo Finance, Nov 11). The buyers are also the company's chip suppliers.

Who ends up holding that risk?