The Swing Is On

Interactive models for Australian federal elections 🗳️

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

Also did we mention that our NSW, QLD, SA and WA models are now live at https://t.co/Wi9rTxoPhu? 😏

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

🗳️ NSW state polling & seat nowcast 🗳️

🔴 Labor: 30.7% (53 seats)
🟠 One Nation: 24.8% (8 seats)
🔵 Coalition: 22.8% (22 seats)
🟢 Greens: 11.5% (3 seats)
⚪ Other: 10.7% (7 seats)

Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own.

#auspol #elections #polling

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

🗳️ NSW state polling & seat nowcast 🗳️

🔴 Labor: 30.7% (53 seats)
🟠 One Nation: 24.8% (8 seats)
🔵 Coalition: 22.8% (22 seats)
🟢 Greens: 11.5% (3 seats)
⚪ Other: 10.7% (7 seats)

Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own.

#auspol #elections #polling

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

While One Nation comes out short at just 3 seats in the current model, they remain competitive in another 31 close seats – similar to the SA state election earlier this year.

👀 Check out our latest article to learn more about how this works in VIC: https://t.co/ju7TvCyWAP

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

🗳️ VIC state polling & seat nowcast 🗳️

🔵 Coalition: 28.5% (43 seats)
🔴 Labor: 25.5% (37 seats)
🟠 One Nation: 22.3% (3 seats)
🟢 Greens: 13.2% (5 seats)
⚪ Other: 10.5% (0 seats)

Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own.

#auspol #elections #polling

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

With more than half of all seats (52 of 88) considered "close" at this stage, the model is very volatile.

That's what 3 parties in a 22-29% polling range will deliver.

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

Meanwhile, a declining Other vote (usually happens in polling far from election time) sees the crossbench shrinking – take that finding with a grain of salt. 🧂

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

🗳️ AUS federal polling & seat nowcast 🗳️

🔴 Labor: 29.0% (82 seats)
🔵 Coalition: 21.2% (21 seats)
🟠 One Nation: 27.2% (40 seats)
🟢 Greens: 12.8% (2 seats)
⚪ Other: 9.8% (5 seats)

Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own.

#auspol #elections #polling

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

The two traditional major parties – Labor and the Coalition – have been improving slightly in the last few weeks, but One Nation remains on track for official Opposition status at 40 seats.

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

A handful of you have asked: how is One Nation polling at 22.2% in VIC, but our model only gives them 3 seats?!

It's a fair question – and the answer shows the volatility of single-member seats in Australian preferential voting.

Read the analysis here → https://t.co/ju7TvCyWAP

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

Our Victorian state poll aggregate after recent Newspoll, Redbridge and Freshwater additions:

🔵 Coalition: 29.8% (47 seats)
🔴 Labor: 25.4% (33 seats)
🟠 One Nation: 21.6% (3 seats)
🟢 Greens: 13.5% (5 seats)
⚪️ Other: 9.7% (0 seats)

The Coalition on track for a slim majority.

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

Our model predicts a minority 🔵 Coalition govt if the next VIC state election were held today.

Do you think the 🔵 Coalition would form a govt with 🟠 One Nation to oust the Allan Labor govt?

Check out latest polls at https://t.co/Wi9rTxoPhu.

#auspol #vicpol #elections

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

Our model predicts a narrow 4-seat 🔴 Labor majority if the next Australian federal election were held today.

Check out the latest polls and simulate the next election for yourself at https://t.co/Wi9rTxoPhu.

#auspol #polling #elections

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

More #auspol Lower House seats are now 3-cornered contests or a fight between 2nd and 3rd at the final elimination count.

So we’ve introduced an updated “close seats” logic in our election visualisations:

⚖️ Close final pair only
📐 3-cornered contests
🥊 In-bloc contests

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

Here's our modelled seat count for the next Victorian state election since 2022 based on poll averages.

The VIC Coalition is polling +8pp vs the fed Coalition nationally – so just 7 seats off a majority on current numbers:
🔵 Coalition 38
🔴 Labor 25
🟠 One Nation 20
🟢 Greens 5

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

Our VIC 2026 state election models are HERE! 🎉

Explore our poll tracker, 88-seat model and preferences simulator for yourself → https://t.co/Wi9rTxoPhu

#auspol #vicpol

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

📊 To explore our other election modelling tools – or check out the full breakdown, interactive maps, and methodology – head to: https://t.co/Wi9rTxoPhu

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

Track a Poll aggregate update: One Nation leads nationally at 29.6%, ahead of Labor (27.4%) and the Coalition (18.9%).

Our model projects 59 seats changing hands — One Nation wins 55, the Coalition collapses to 9, and Labor falls to 70.

🔗Full analysis: https://t.co/MmFaaRKaYb

[The Swing Is On @theswingison]

The demo divide. Among the 15 most Christian electorates, 11 flip – all to One Nation. Among the 15 with the most overseas-born parents, zero change hands.

One Nation's gains map onto older, more Christian, more Aus-born, home-owning communities.