The Value Pond

Hunting small caps | Turnarounds | Capital cycle | Special sits. Professionally managing capital.✍️ Deep dives • Articles • Portfolio upd. Not investment advice

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

Semapa may be making moves toward another attempt to go private.

Three clues:
1️⃣ With the sale of Secil, the holding sits on €761M in net cash (40% market cap)
2️⃣ Despite the cash position, the company has maintained last year's dividend.
3️⃣ At the AGM on May 28th, a buyback of 10% of shares will be voted on and approved.

Many Spanish value investors like @HolyFinance @JRuizRuiz @JRDA85 @GustavoBolsa have been following this holding for years. The catalysts may finally be aligning.

Full article on the blog.
🔗in next comment.

$SEM $NVG

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

@MorningstarInc 🤝

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

@qualityandalpha @BuyAndHold2015 Siempre vivo.

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

@qualityandalpha @BuyAndHold2015 Yo cumplo años el mismo día que el difunto señor del bigotillo. No me quiero ni imaginar 😂

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

✈️ This slide is widely repeated in Ryanair earnings presentations, claiming a wide cost leadership gap over rivals. But does it hold up?

❗The table contains one inaccuracy (1️⃣) , one nuance worth mentioning (2️⃣), and one rather cheeky omission (3️⃣). Let's go. 🧵 (1/)
$WIZZ $WIZZ.L $RYA $RYAAY

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

Hey Mr. Market. What about ForvIA? They were on IA before.

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

@creandocartera Madre mía, alguien dijo "Data center" y bumpeó un Autoparts 😂.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

Those starting points are further confirmed by valuation via the 5-year CAPE ratio, as shown below. By that measure, the P/E bottoms that line up with the above are also 1921, 1949, 1982, and 2009. /END

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

Combining effects 1️⃣ and 3️⃣, Wizz Air's unit costs are ~9% lower. Normalising for effect 2️⃣, they are ~14% lower.
The conclusion is clear: Wizz Air is Europe's real cost leader.

⚠️ this is not an attack on Ryanair. Ryanair sustains higher load factors, charges more per seat by flying higher-income routes, and has real advantages in areas like ground handling. It is an exceptionally well-run company with strong margins. (6/)

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

IFF’s new CEO has purchased $20 million in shares. This comes shortly after IFF announced the sale of its Food Ingredients business, leaving three segments: Scent and Taste (closer to Givaudan’s model) and Health & Biosciences (similar to Novozymes).

It has taken six years to digest the merger with DuPont’s Nutrition & Biosciences business, forcing the company to divest quality assets like Lucas Meyer Cosmetics and divisions such as Pharma Solutions.

After all this, it’s a company in a sector I really like. It underpins consumer staples, operates as a NIMBY-style oligopoly with high barriers to entry, and its products represent a very low percentage of the final product's total cost.

$IFF $GIVN $GIVNY $NSIS $NVZMY

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

Sometimes the numbers tell a different story.
If you found this useful, like and repost the first tweet. It helps more people see the analysis.
Follow @TheValuePond for deep dives on overlooked companies. 🦆

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

✈️ This slide is widely repeated in Ryanair earnings presentations, claiming a wide cost leadership gap over rivals. But does it hold up?

❗The table contains one inaccuracy (1️⃣) , one nuance worth mentioning (2️⃣), and one rather cheeky omission (3️⃣). Let's go. 🧵 (1/)
$WIZZ $WIZZ.L $RYA $RYAAY

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

✈️ This slide is widely repeated in Ryanair earnings presentations, claiming a wide cost leadership gap over rivals. But does it hold up?

❗The table contains one inaccuracy (1️⃣) , one nuance worth mentioning (2️⃣), and one rather cheeky omission (3️⃣). Let's go. 🧵 (1/)
$WIZZ $WIZZ.L $RYA $RYAAY

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

📖 I published a full thesis and an update on Wizz Air: fuel crisis, demand signals, sale & leaseback mechanics, and the full Excel model for paid subscribers.

Read it at https://t.co/TzjUzWG5q4 🦆

$WIZZ $WIZZ.L (8/)

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

@nataninvesting Let's see June and Rev RPK 😀

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

Wizz Air🛫May traffic statistics:

👤+26% passengers in May despite war.
✅91.7% load factor (+50 bps) despite +25% capacity increase.
⛽️Lower CO2 per passenger/km, less fuel consumption. 70% of jet fuel is hedged around US$720/MT for the key part of the year.

Strong metrics in a key month, with operational fleet size up approximately 18% compared to Q2 2026.

In case you missed, should read this thread 👇 https://t.co/LyxsmgQsPT $WIZZ $WIZZ.L

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

Michael O'Leary, Ryanair's CEO, recently said about Wizz Air: "If oil stays at these levels, two or three European airlines in October or November could go bankrupt, like Wizz Air."
A great CEO. But always provocative. And in this case, wrong.
A thread. 🧵(1/12)
$WIZZ $WIZZ.L $RYA $RYAAY

[The Value Pond @TheValuePond]

@Bonumcapital @HolyFinance @LuisMiguelValue @TorrasLuis @ASESOREFA @Gestiprudent @dapreal4 @creandocartera @foso_defensivo @MartaEscribanoL @marcgarrigasait @dantelriv @Carlos_MoraM Muchas gracias, menudo listado 🔝.