The Wealth Ward

NFA! We are a community of macro traders that profit off every market cycle.

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

Metcalfe’s Law & Crypto’s Future 🚀

Metcalfe’s Law states that a network’s value (V) is proportional to the number of users (n) raised to an exponent (α), which reflects network effects. Applied to crypto, adoption fuels exponential market cap growth.

Formula:
V = k ⋅ n^α

Where:

V = total crypto market cap
n = number of crypto users
k = proportionality constant
α = exponent reflecting network effects

Current (Feb 2025):
n = 580M users
V = $3.8T total crypto market cap
Solving for k using α = 1.5 (subquadratic growth, more realistic than α = 2), we get k ≈ 0.272.

Projection for 2035:
Assume crypto adoption 10x’s to 5.8B users (~72.5% of the global population).
V_2035 = 0.272 ⋅ (5.8B)^1.5
Result: $120T total crypto market cap in 2035. 🚀

CAGR Calculation:
CAGR = (120T / 3.8T)^(1/10) - 1
= 41.25% annual growth rate 📈

But this assumes today’s money supply. With infinite QE and UBI, global fiat supply is inflating fast.
41% CAGR may be conservative.
Mass adoption + fiat devaluation = 🚀
We are still early.
RT if you found this interesting! 🔄🔥

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Chamath's best trade idea for 2026 is not a stock. It is copper.

"We are still completely underestimating how short we are in terms of the global demand and supply dynamics of a handful of critical elements that we need.

The asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic is copper. The reason is that it is, at least as it stands today, the most useful, cheap, and amenable conductive material that we have

That material manifests in everything from our data centers, to chips, to our weapon systems. It is just everywhere, everywhere, everywhere"

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

Monero will be the best performing crypto asset of the next five years.

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

We’re seeing Metcalfe’s law play out with monero.

>Less than 1% of bitcoin’s market cap
>XMR’s supply inflates at a rate of less than 0.8%
>The demand for private wealth storage is increasing at a rate that far exceeds XMR’s inflation rate.

The useful technology wins.

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

The issue with UBI is it’ll eventually be used malevolently and it’ll be contingent on you having a certain degree of compliance with authority

ie you need these shots or else your UBI will get cut off

“it’s for the greater good”

they’ll wave the UBI around like a carrot on a stick and use it as leverage to make you do whatever they want

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

The fed funds rate now isn’t much different from 2008-2010 while we have twice the debt today relative to our GDP.

A crash in this environment isn’t random. It makes sense.

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

This is the first time since the pandemic that the Atlanta Fed has had a negative growth forecast.

Tarriffs might just end up being the straw that broke the camel’s back on this overvalued market.

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

@themoneygps Is the app live yet? I’d love to try it out

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

cooked this up with ChatGPT but still an important concept for everyone to understand

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

Metcalfe’s Law & Crypto’s Future 🚀

Metcalfe’s Law states that a network’s value (V) is proportional to the number of users (n) raised to an exponent (α), which reflects network effects. Applied to crypto, adoption fuels exponential market cap growth.

Formula:
V = k ⋅ n^α

Where:

V = total crypto market cap
n = number of crypto users
k = proportionality constant
α = exponent reflecting network effects

Current (Feb 2025):
n = 580M users
V = $3.8T total crypto market cap
Solving for k using α = 1.5 (subquadratic growth, more realistic than α = 2), we get k ≈ 0.272.

Projection for 2035:
Assume crypto adoption 10x’s to 5.8B users (~72.5% of the global population).
V_2035 = 0.272 ⋅ (5.8B)^1.5
Result: $120T total crypto market cap in 2035. 🚀

CAGR Calculation:
CAGR = (120T / 3.8T)^(1/10) - 1
= 41.25% annual growth rate 📈

But this assumes today’s money supply. With infinite QE and UBI, global fiat supply is inflating fast.
41% CAGR may be conservative.
Mass adoption + fiat devaluation = 🚀
We are still early.
RT if you found this interesting! 🔄🔥

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

It smells like nation states are about to start dumping eachother‘s debt and trigger a massive domino effect.

Bond market starts to crack ——> debt spiral collapse ——> equity markets collapse ——> infinite QE resumes at an unprecedented rate ——-> hyperinflation endgame.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Things are starting to get crazy in the gold market.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Things are starting to get crazy in the gold market.

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

The four pillars of the economy are labor, intelligence, materials, and energy.

The cost of intelligence is going to zero and throughout history capital has always been tied to labor. We’re now entering a period where the constraints on growth are going to be materials and energy.

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

It looks like there might be another commodity super cycle ahead of us.

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

Global liquidity and the NASDAQ have a 97% correlation.

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

AI agents are going to participate in the marketplace as owners and allocators of capital.

This won’t be through the traditional banking system, but rather through crypto assets. Instead of having checking accounts, they’ll have their own digital wallets.

[TREX Oil and Gas @TREXOilandGas]

Market valuations are at their highest levels in history, when taking into account multiple methodologies

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

Agentic AI is a massive deflationary catalyst and will crash all risk assets over the next few years.

It’ll hit white collar first, which makes up ~60% of the U.S workforce. If you have an assumption that in the next five years that even 10% of this white collar population gets automated, that’ll raise the unemployment rate by 6% in absolute terms, pushing us from 4% to 10%+. This is just the conservative estimate. 10% was where we were at during the bottom of the GFC in 2008-2009.

The cost of creating goods and services will go down as labor costs go down, but as labor costs go down, substantially less people will be receiving job-based income and thus won’t be able to cover their liabilities or spend as freely. Deflation 101.

Here’s the endgame: Inevitable deflation from AI automation makes the dollar stronger and makes debt unserviceable, which causes a massive default crisis. This makes the dollar-denominated price of stocks, real estate, and pretty much all risk assets (including crypto) tank in the short to intermediate term.

This will then trigger a response where massive amounts of stimulus will be ushered in via universal basic income (UBI), infinite QE, and other methods. The endgame is currency devaluation, just like with every other fiat credit-based system in history.

TLDR: one more crash before hyperinflationary endgame. the severity of the crash depends on how quickly and how hard central banks & governments intervene.

[The Wealth Ward @thewealthward]

Risk assets are going to take a massive hit these next few years.