Sathish Venkat (SV)

Finance. Capital. Invest. Wealth. Freedom.
-Code. Trade. Play-

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

MSFT is trading below its multiple EMAs, at 25% down in 1 year time frame, its valuation looks decent to attractive , owns around 27% of openai and could benefit if openai goes public( I think openai is preparing for it). MSFT could be a good bet for 1 year time frame according to me if we start accumulating at this stage.

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

We have captured it rightly.

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

Caplinpoint lab has given a breakout.

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

Nifty IT index is at multi year low( almost 5 yrs low). Most of the mutual funds hold these companies and I believe they will book losses or rotate with other sectors. It is at the support level now. AI revolution has dented the whole IT large caps where they are mostly dependent on servicing model. Analysts are talking about lower valuations and I m skeptical about it as the game changes with the IT model these days. Not sure if mass recruitments and high billing would be done the same way as it was earlier. I am not still not convinced to enter at this stage but is it worth trying for a SWING?

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

India’s capital markets sector has huge potential.

The problem? Quality businesses in this space rarely come cheap. PE, P/B, and P/S often look expensive because growth, OPM, EPS, ROE, and scalability remain strong.

Waiting for a COVID-like dip may mean waiting forever.

Better approach: accumulate quality names gradually during corrections/consolidations and use rallies to book profits. This is where, technical analysis helps you a lot - look for breakouts and decide.

Note: I am not a very long-term investor in Indian stocks. Mutual funds are different. For direct stocks, I prefer a positional approach. I own a few CDSL, CAMS but interested in Groww, BSE, MCX, Anand Rathi, NAMS. Will continue to watch them..

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

Check out the USD/INR returns for the past few years. This is the reason why we need to diversify our investments across global markets. Diversification is not about distribution of your investments across multiple companies in Indian markets. Diversification is about investing in global instruments including India.

My suggestion is :
1. Mutual funds & Direct stocks @ Indian market
2. GOLD
3. US ETFs like QQQM, VOOG
4. Direct Stocks @ US - Play safe with known giants
5. Global market ETFs like VEA, VWO - exposure to Japan, China, Brazil, European
6. Real estate. - our parent's style :)
8. Very minor portion on crypto too ( I know its risky, but you never know) - genz style

Note: When you invest in US market and say, you are able to make 12% as returns, then you can get additional USD appreciation % returns too.

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

Looks like there is a good chance to see VCP(volatility contraction pattern) in this Marksans pharma's chart. Use this chart to learn the VCP.
Disclaimer: I own this stock.

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

If you are a value investor, you will never think about SpaceX
Though Spacex’s market cap valuation is more than 2.5trillion - more than 50% of India’s GDP,  SpaceX is a loss making company.
Price to Sales ratio is nearly 90+
The valuation is extremely high.

Even Nvidia which is 5+ trillion mar cap company is profit making company
Nvidia is trading at 30+ PE
Comparitively - Nvidia may look better at this stage comparing with Spacex

However, I have entered SpaceX on day2 and just riding on the euphoria as swing trade. I will exit the SWING once it starts correcting. US market looks very positive and the hype may take SpaceX even higher. I don’t know but looks like a candidate to swing. Its a very high risk , high reward swing.

Discalimer: This is purely my opinion not a recommendation.

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

It has just broken r2 - 2333, r3 is at 2567 and r4 is at 2721

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

@soicfinance @ishmohit1

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

In recent times, I have added some great businesses to my watchlist through @soicfinance channel as part of their recent initiative. Thanks to @ishmohit1 for your wonderful in-depth details. Here is a glimpse of it - worth watching the actual videos - https://t.co/lcNvCgqmr9

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

Current bias from PCR chart: Weak to bearish, unless price starts rising again with PCR also recovering.

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

Actually, in the original post above, checked only if monday is green. I reran my logic with gap-up of 0.25% and still it is negative and discouraged to hold CE
- 2Y:
GapUp>=0.25 29.35%, Flat/SmallUp 27.17%, GapDown 43.48%
3Y:
GapUp>=0.25 32.84%, Flat/SmallUp 27.61%, GapDown 39.55%
5Y:
GapUp>=0.25 34.65%, Flat/SmallUp 25.44%, GapDown 39.91%
10Y:
GapUp>=0.25 40.40%, Flat/SmallUp 26.71%, GapDown 32.89%

CE carry results:

09:30 exit
2Y: -9.13%, 3Y: -9.70%, 5Y: -9.02%
11:00 exit
2Y: -13.99%, 3Y: -13.45%, 5Y: -12.80%

The important refinement is this: the worst bucket is now clearly the stricter GapUp>=0.25 set.

2Y: -14.73% by 09:30, -21.60% by 11:00
3Y: -14.87% by 09:30, -18.82% by 11:00
5Y: -13.69% by 09:30, -17.28% by 11:00

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

WEEKEND THETA DECAY Vs MONDYA GAP-UP:
Did a quick study to see if theta decay over weekend is beating the gap up Monday days. The reason for the below analysis is, Mondays are usually with gap ups ( >50% times in last 2, 3, 5, 10 yrs). Just checking if Monday gap up premium rise is beating weekend theta decay. Actually, it is not. Its bad idea to carry CE over weekend even if the market is +VE on monday.

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

While looking at the backtesting report, don't just go only profit % - some basics to refresh

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

Market weekly report. A quick glance could give us more insights of what has happened.

[Sathish Venkat (SV) @thinkinstocks]

Crorepati Roadmap
You do savings, diversification, retirement, wealth compounding and finally becoming crorepati in 10 years. Making further crores will take less than half the time it took for the previous crore.

Note: The returns are approximate - 1-2% variance will be there.