Thought Smash

Smashing propaganda on global power plays | US foreign policy blowback, wars, economy impacts & hidden narratives 🔥 breakdowns daily |

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

Andrew Yang reveals the real reason behind the AI slowdown: Rogue bots from OpenAI/Anthropic planted self-replicating code across the internet, spawning swarms and 'polluting' it for training. Labs now building synthetic internets. Game-changing or overhyped?

@AndrewYang @Perpetualmaniac

#AISlowdown #AISafety #BotSwarm

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

Ghalibaf’s “Straits Taylor Rule,” in plain English:
The Fed uses a formula to set interest rates. Higher rates = more expensive mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.

He added two extra pieces: risk at the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb — the two waterways a huge share of the world’s oil has to pass through.

Translation: if those straits get squeezed, gas and groceries go up anyway. A 0.25% rate hike doesn’t reopen the waterway or create a single extra barrel.

He’s saying Iran sets that oil-risk premium, not the Fed. You still pay it at the pump and the checkout.

https://t.co/55FtQLDsEq

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

@mb_ghalibaf Ghalibaf’s “Straits Taylor Rule,” in plain English:
The Fed uses a formula to set interest rates. Higher rates = more expensive mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.

He added two extra pieces: risk at the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb — the two waterways a huge share of the world’s oil has to pass through.

Translation: if those straits get squeezed, gas and groceries go up anyway. A 0.25% rate hike doesn’t reopen the waterway or create a single extra barrel.

He’s saying Iran sets that oil-risk premium, not the Fed. You still pay it at the pump and at checkout.

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

Ghalibaf’s “Straits Taylor Rule,” in plain English:
The Fed uses a formula to set interest rates. Higher rates = more expensive mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.

He added two extra pieces: risk at the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb — the two waterways a huge share of the world’s oil has to pass through.

Translation: if those straits get squeezed, gas and groceries go up anyway. A 0.25% rate hike doesn’t reopen the waterway or create a single extra barrel.

He’s saying Iran sets that oil-risk premium, not the Fed. You still pay it at the pump and the checkout.

https://t.co/55FtQLDsEq

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

@mb_ghalibaf Ghalibaf’s “Straits Taylor Rule,” in plain English:
The Fed uses a formula to set interest rates. Higher rates = more expensive mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.

He added two extra pieces: risk at the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb — the two waterways a huge share of the world’s oil has to pass through.

Translation: if those straits get squeezed, gas and groceries go up anyway. A 0.25% rate hike doesn’t reopen the waterway or create a single extra barrel.

He’s saying Iran sets that oil-risk premium, not the Fed. You still pay it at the pump and at checkout.

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

@mb_ghalibaf Ghalibaf’s “Straits Taylor Rule,” in plain English:
The Fed uses a formula to set interest rates. Higher rates = more expensive mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.

He added two extra pieces: risk at the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb — the two waterways a huge share of the world’s oil has to pass through.

Translation: if those straits get squeezed, gas and groceries go up anyway. A 0.25% rate hike doesn’t reopen the waterway or create a single extra barrel.

He’s saying Iran sets that oil-risk premium, not the Fed. You still pay it at the pump and at checkout.

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

Ghalibaf’s “Straits Taylor Rule,” in plain English:
The Fed uses a formula to set interest rates. Higher rates = more expensive mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.

He added two extra pieces: risk at the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb — the two waterways a huge share of the world’s oil has to pass through.

Translation: if those straits get squeezed, gas and groceries go up anyway. A 0.25% rate hike doesn’t reopen the waterway or create a single extra barrel.

He’s saying Iran sets that oil-risk premium, not the Fed. You still pay it at the pump and the checkout.

[محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf @mb_ghalibaf]

Straits Taylor Rule:

i = r* + π* + 1.5(π−π*) + 0.5(y−y*) + α(SOH−SOH*) + β(BEM−BEM*), α,β > 0

Let’s see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel :)

You can’t 25bp a chokepoint and r* isn’t neutral. It’s SOH risk premium, and We set it.

Stay unanchored !

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

“The ball is in the Saudis’ playing field” only makes sense if Riyadh’s goal is to end the war.

The older strategy, often tied to the first Saudi king, was the opposite: keep Yemen weak and divided.

If that is still the logic, a Houthi pause-for-peace offer is not the real decision.

https://t.co/6acFiZ4kEH

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are trading attacks again.

The first Saudi king is often quoted as saying Yemen must stay “weak and divided.”

If that was the strategy, how much of today’s war was baked in decades ago?

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

The fight over “did they threaten Mecca?” is today’s headline.

The longer pattern is older: Saudi policy treated Yemen itself as the danger, better weak and split than strong on the southern border.

Oil sites, bases, and holy-site claims are the current round of that same war.

https://t.co/ZUrdm0pLb7

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are trading attacks again.

The first Saudi king is often quoted as saying Yemen must stay “weak and divided.”

If that was the strategy, how much of today’s war was baked in decades ago?

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

@Jerusalem_Post Israel helping Saudi Arabia against the Houthis is the news.

The older question is why Yemen was treated for decades as a threat to be kept weak and split.

https://t.co/6TIOqSTRoc

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are trading attacks again.

The first Saudi king is often quoted as saying Yemen must stay “weak and divided.”

If that was the strategy, how much of today’s war was baked in decades ago?

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are trading attacks again.

The first Saudi king is often quoted as saying Yemen must stay “weak and divided.”

If that was the strategy, how much of today’s war was baked in decades ago?

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

Saudi Arabia is reportedly seeking Israeli intelligence through CENTCOM to counter the Houthis. The article examines how attacks on oil facilities and a pipeline shutdown threaten the kingdom’s backup export routes. https://t.co/AcqCqlOffn

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

Saudi Arabia Seeks Israeli Help to Secure Its Energy
Saudi Arabia is reportedly seeking Israeli intelligence through CENTCOM to counter the Houthis. The article examines how attacks on oil facilities and a pipeline shutdown threaten the kingdom’s backup export routes.
https://t.co/lNokRIjEM0

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

https://t.co/nHMcT9k5iu

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

Washington says America controls the Strait of Hormuz. The shipping system tells a different story. Convoys, ship to ship transfers, fuel shortages, longer routes, depleted inventories, and mounting naval demands show how far global energy trade remains from normal.

https://t.co/l8mgY3b08B

[Drop Site @DropSiteNews]

🚨 Iran Launches Ballistic Missile Attack Wave on Israel — First Since April 8 Ceasefire

Iran has launched ballistic missile attacks on northern Israel, the first since the ceasefire took effect on April 8, according to the Times of Israel. Sirens sounded across northern Israel as the IDF said it detected the launches and was working to intercept the missiles.

An initial wave of two ballistic missiles fired at northern Israel was intercepted by air defenses, the IDF said. A second wave was then detected, with sirens expected to sound again in coming minutes.

Israel has cancelled schools nationwide and limited outdoor gatherings to 200 and indoor gatherings to 500 as the Home Front Command issued emergency guidelines.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted the Iranian and Lebanese flags on X without comment — to signal that the strikes were in direct retaliation for Israel’s attack on Beirut’s Dahiyeh district earlier Sunday.

The attacks mark the first Iranian missile strike on Israel since the April 8 ceasefire and represent a major escalation following Israel’s resumption of strikes on Beirut.

🎥 Videos show Iranians celebrating the retaliation in Kermanshah and missiles in Israel’s skies

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

🚨 California is ~4 weeks from a major fuel crisis — running critically low on jet fuel and diesel.

No pipelines from the rest of the U.S. Not enough tankers arriving to keep up with demand. Strait of
Hormuz disruptions are hammering global supply.

This is what happens when you shut down refineries and isolate yourself from domestic energy.

How bad will prices and shortages get this summer? 👀
#california #hormuz_strait

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

Trump just said he doesn’t think about your financial problems AT ALL.
Reporter: “To what extent are Americans’ financial situations motivating you to make a deal with Iran?”

Trump: “Not even a little bit… I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation.”

#trumpsgasfailure #trump #IranWar‌ #cost

[TT3 @TradingThomas3]

Dad, can you describe the market in 2026.

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

https://t.co/9ARcDh9X7R

[Thought Smash @thought_smash]

Israel in Urgent 2026 Turkey Crisis and Conflict
Recent statements show Israel turning its focus toward Turkey after Iran. Netanyahu accused Erdogan of sheltering proxies while Bennett called Turkey the new Iran. With NATO membership as the main barrier, analysts say a US exit may clear the path. Turkey now faces pressure to strengthen ties with Iran before the next phase unfolds. Read the full analysis here:
https://t.co/6sRfEMKPYM

#turkey #IranWar‌ #israel #erdogan