Three Line Capital

public capital allocation from an obsessed retail investor with skin in the game.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

https://t.co/IIsNw18OtO

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

Interesting things happening in power/800V land.

I publicly took profit on $WOLF after being up 300% while twitter gurus were still forcing the trade down your throat to squeeze out a measly extra 25% that I'm sure nobody took because you wanted more gains in a late trade.

Alpha somewhere in there

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

🔥Fire sale this week for stocks.

Bought a decent amount of $RIVN down 40% from recent highs @ 13.28.

Bought $DASH coming off 50% lows from recent highs @ 159

Trimmed Entire $WOLF position 300% gain this month alone, looking to re-build exposure at a lower valuation

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

Everybody seeing the CPI headline but nobody reading the CPI is exactly the problem with today's market.

Echoing similarities with WTI algos hanging on to every Trump/Iran headline.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

Missing the part of the main driver in this "soft" print is car insurance going down, largest single drop in that segment since covid.

Everything else was up. I guess you could hang your hat on "people driving less because gas is so expensive, so insurance inflation took a hit" but that's a big bet on a little thread.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

Anthropic and OpenAI speed ran the two-decade iPhone cycle in 12 months. We don't need these frontier models for 90% of people on the planet.

This isn't even AGI and the outrage is interesting in my opinion. The line is beginning to be drawn on the latest models having marginal to zero use for everyday users and everyone was speaking on AGI like it was going to be mass available.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

I am more confused on why people thought otherwise? Everyone was scared of AGI but nobody ever thought who would even be eligible to get access to AGI?

I think a lot of AI sentiment is going to be re-rated in the next 12 months and that doesn't mean AI is dead, it just means now that the rose-colored glasses are off, we can get more sober takes.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

Everybody is up in arms about the Fable-5 / Mythos nerf. When in my opinion this was always how it was going to be. Did you really think AGI would be available to everyone?

Safety theater that cripples day-to-day utility doesn’t just slow progress; it creates a two-tier system where only a handful of vetted labs get real tools while everyone else gets lobotomized versions. We’re optimizing for the worst-case actor at the expense of the best-case upside.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

https://t.co/IIsNw18OtO

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

@KakashiCapital_ About time people caught on, on top of them building exit liquidity, DC builds have been getting delayed let and right.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

Seeing a lot of $AAOI heavy loses out there today. Always funny to me how surprised people become when it happens, as if prices were suppose to be up only everyday forever.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

Price moves for one simple reason: someone bought, or someone sold. Nothing more, nothing less.

My mentor often echoed fundamentals of investor like Buffet with quotes such as "The stock market is a voting mechanism"

For years I understood the quote on paper, but only recent price action made its power viscerally clear.
Prices don’t tell you what a company is fundamentally worth. They tell you who is emotionally popular right now. This week, thousands of retail tourist are learning that lesson the hard way. A stock doesn’t rocket 48% in three days because of magic, perfect fundamentals, or individual genius. It happens because a crowd of buyers piled in together, creating a vertical bid. The “vote” became overwhelmingly bullish. Unsustainably popular. Sentiment went parabolic. That’s it.

Now I am not saying this is the say-all, be-all top but the thing about crowds is they are fickle. When the first sellers step in (and there are *always* sellers), momentum stalls. Those who rode the 300% gain begin locking in profits. Then the more recent buyers, now sitting on smaller gains or losses, start to panic. Nobody wants to be the last bagholder. Selling begets more selling. What was a self-reinforcing rally becomes a self-reinforcing collapse. The chart forms a perfect parabola up, then a mirror-image unwind down.

And yet, throughout the entire move, the underlying business barely changed. Same products, same customers, same operations. The only variable that swung wildly was human emotion.

My Takeaway: The market is not a weighing machine in the short term, instead it is a popularity contest. Master sentiment, and you’ll stop being surprised when prices detach from reality on the way up… and violently reconnect on the way down. Understanding this doesn’t make you immune to the swings, but it keeps you from confusing a crowd’s temporary enthusiasm (or fear) with permanent truth.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

@FunOfInvesting To be fair this isn't new, DC builds have been constantly being out right halted or delayed since this year. https://t.co/bRFRrHYTYa

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

Interesting dynamic developing with Data Center buildouts.

Demand-side reality check: Enterprises wake up to true token/compute costs and cut waste/improve token efficiency.

Supply-side overcommitment: Chipmakers and data center developers bet big on subsidized hypergrowth that isn't materializing on schedule.

Huge stockpiles of high-end RAM and GPUs, valued in the tens of billions, to remain boxed up in warehouses, waiting for power and buildings that aren’t ready.

This creates almost a double squeeze that makes the true cost to the end of token subsidies far more brutal.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

Valid and I'd even argue coming from crypto lets you synthesize information faster and digest narratives before the crowd, if you were good in crypto in the first place and wasn't just lucky.

Things moved so fast in web3 that being slow was as deadly as being late. Huge benefit of tradfi is that there is an order of magnitude less supply than in crypto. Millions of tokens in crypto but only 10s of thousands of stocks on public exchanges.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

I would add that also too many are writing off robotics as just “arms and legs.”

There’s already a trillion-dollar adjacent market doing the exact same core job: observe, process data, and take physical action in safe environments.

The only real difference is that humanoids market the hands and legs as the sexy part. The real value is software defined machines.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

Price moves for one simple reason: someone bought, or someone sold. Nothing more, nothing less.

My mentor often echoed fundamentals of investor like Buffet with quotes such as "The stock market is a voting mechanism"

For years I understood the quote on paper, but only recent price action made its power viscerally clear.
Prices don’t tell you what a company is fundamentally worth. They tell you who is emotionally popular right now. This week, thousands of retail tourist are learning that lesson the hard way. A stock doesn’t rocket 48% in three days because of magic, perfect fundamentals, or individual genius. It happens because a crowd of buyers piled in together, creating a vertical bid. The “vote” became overwhelmingly bullish. Unsustainably popular. Sentiment went parabolic. That’s it.

Now I am not saying this is the say-all, be-all top but the thing about crowds is they are fickle. When the first sellers step in (and there are *always* sellers), momentum stalls. Those who rode the 300% gain begin locking in profits. Then the more recent buyers, now sitting on smaller gains or losses, start to panic. Nobody wants to be the last bagholder. Selling begets more selling. What was a self-reinforcing rally becomes a self-reinforcing collapse. The chart forms a perfect parabola up, then a mirror-image unwind down.

And yet, throughout the entire move, the underlying business barely changed. Same products, same customers, same operations. The only variable that swung wildly was human emotion.

My Takeaway: The market is not a weighing machine in the short term, instead it is a popularity contest. Master sentiment, and you’ll stop being surprised when prices detach from reality on the way up… and violently reconnect on the way down. Understanding this doesn’t make you immune to the swings, but it keeps you from confusing a crowd’s temporary enthusiasm (or fear) with permanent truth.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

$RDW raising $500M via an ATM. First, it was $GOOGL now its bleeding into space. Everybody rushing to cash in their chips while valuations are stretched because C-Suites know it.

Note that this is not bad for the business. Plenty of great even necessary business can be overvalued and at least in my experience the money is made getting in when its undervalued/overlooked.

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

#China: crude imports were at 7.82mbpd in May 26, vs 9.40 in April 26, 11.02mbpd in May 25, 11.11mbpd in May 24, 12.16mbpd in May 23 - customs office data #oott

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

@ThinkingUSD I talk about this in my first X article but tldr: I lost it all and went negative on Luna and UST https://t.co/NbdeX3ou6Q

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

https://t.co/m0PAIYi7VI

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

@0xBold Tom Lee has stated that $BMNR will stop buying at or around owning 5% of $ETH and after today's purchase they are 0.5% away from getting there.

Bigger question should be other DAT's following in their steps.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

Comments are proving why so many will never do well in financial markets which simultaneously is why intelligent investors always make money.

"Learn to buy when the chart is ugly and when to sell when everyone else wants in"

Excerpt from my first X article:

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

@HFI_Research I've stopped paying attention to it, like you said earlier: "Nothing will materialize till we hit tank bottom"

Till then the tape is kind of pointless.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

@DeItaone Was buying cheaper stocks in the room with everyone 2 weeks ago during parabolic moves?

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

🚨 KOSPI triggers circuit breakers as SK HYNIX tumbles at Korean open.

I warned you last week with plenty of time.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

🚨 KOSPI triggers circuit breakers as SK HYNIX tumbles at Korean open.

I warned you last week with plenty of time.

[Three Line Capital @threelinecap]

Reminder: Korea is leveraged to the gills as of late.

Surely, they will all unwind these positions in a perfectly orderly fashion. No forced liquidations, no domino effect, nothing to see here folks...

Margin loans hitting a record ~35 trillion won — the highest ever. This isn’t just “some retail enthusiasm.” over names like SK Hynix, This is full-blown leverage mania on South Korean stocks, now at extremes not seen in years. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent… but when the tide turns, it turns fast.