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This is a great buy-low spot for the Yankees as they look to snap a three game skid and avoid getting swept, with first place in the AL East now hanging in the balance. Clarke Schmidt takes the mound after a dominant June where he posted a 1.95 ERA, and he’s in a good position to deliver another strong outing. The Yankees’ offense showed signs of life last night with nine runs, and we expect them to carry that momentum into tonight. Let’s get the W!!
MLB: 1 Unit ( 7:07 PM EST )
Yankees ML
The Braves are in a strong position to bounce back after a lopsided 12-0 loss in the series opener, and with Spencer Schwellenbach on the mound sporting a 2.64 ERA at home, they should respond well at Truist Park. He’ll face Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo, who has struggled in June with a 5.85 ERA, making this a tough assignment against a deep Atlanta lineup. Ronald Acuña Jr. is also red-hot at the plate, hitting .366 this month with nine extra-base hits, and he’s had some success in his career against Luzardo. With the Braves in a classic bounce-back spot and Acuña seeing the ball well we like the Braves to get a big home W LFG
MLB: 1 Unit ( 7:15 PM EST )
Braves ML
The Twins finally got their bats going in Sunday’s rout of the Mariners, but they’ve been one of the streakiest teams in baseball, now just 8-16 in June with injuries piling up. With Pablo López out and no confirmed starter yet for this game, it looks like Minnesota will lean on an opener followed by David Festa, who was hit hard in his last outing. Meanwhile, Detroit’s offense continues to thrive, ranking among the AL’s best in key categories like runs and OPS. With Riley Greene red-hot and the Tigers 28-13 at home, they’re set up well to take the opener at home LFG
MLB: 1 Unit ( 7:10 PM EST )
Tigers ML
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Cristopher Sanchez continues to pitch at a high level for the Phillies, but Miami has quietly handled left-handed pitching well lately, posting a 106 wRC+ over the past month. Edward Cabrera, meanwhile, is showing signs of growth with improved command and a refined pitch mix that leans more on his sinker and slider. While Philadelphia has the stronger overall roster, Miami’s bullpen has outperformed the Phillies’ over the last 30 days, and the Marlins hold a defensive edge as well. We like the home dog to get the W tonight LFG
MLB: 1 Unit ( 6:40 PM EST )
Marlins ML
The Tigers snapped out of a mini slump with an explosive showing in the series opener, launching four home runs en route to a seven-run night against Pittsburgh. They’ve been especially strong against left-handed pitching winning 15 of their last 20 in those matchups and get another favorable draw here with Andrew Heaney, who has been vulnerable to power bats. Detroit also has ace Tarik Skubal on the mound, and he’s been dominant all season. With the Tigers set up well on both sides an offense clicking against lefties and a shutdown arm on the hill. We like them to win by 2 or more LFG big week!!
MLB: 1 Unit ( 6:40 PM EST )
Tigers -1.5
The Dodgers may be laying a big number on the moneyline, but there’s still value on the run line in this matchup. Their offense remains the most dangerous in baseball. Fully healthy and leading the league in runs, OPS, and other key metrics. Against Giants lefty Kyle Harrison, who has strikeout upside but also gives up some of the hardest contact in the league, the Dodgers have a clear path to scoring early and often.
Dustin May doesn’t need to be dominant, just steady and with L.A.’s rested, high-leverage bullpen behind him, the Dodgers are well-positioned to control this game. The Giants’ offense has outpaced expectations so far, but regression could be coming against elite arms and deeper lineups. Dodgers win by multiple runs tonight LFG
MLB: 1 Unit ( 7:10 PM EST )
Dodgers -1.5
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The Athletics may be turning a corner after taking a series from Baltimore, and today sets up well for them to keep that momentum going. Oakland has quietly mashed left-handed pitching all season, ranking top 10 in both wRC+ and BABIP. That spells trouble for Yusei Kikuchi, whose ERA is hiding red flags. A bloated 1.59 WHIP and a 4.86 xERA point to incoming regression. The Angels’ bullpen hasn’t helped either, ranking last in FIP. Meanwhile, Jeffrey Springs and Oakland’s rested high leverage relievers should handle an Angels lineup that’s struggled badly and we can get them +130 LFG
MLB: 1 Unit ( 9:38 PM EST )
A’s ML +130
The Phillies have the clear edge on the mound with Cristopher Sanchez, whose strong command and 3.48 xERA make him a steady presence. Bowden Francis has been shaky overall but has shown improvement recently, lowering his ERA and boosting his strikeout rate across his last four starts. While both offenses have been equally productive this year (107 wRC+), the Blue Jays are better positioned here, posting a 119 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching. Add in Toronto’s superior bullpen and defensive edge especially with Philly missing key reliever Jose Alvarado. We like the jays to get a W at home!
MLB: 1 Unit ( 7:07 PM EST )
Blue Jays ML
Max Fried has been dominant on the surface this season with a 1.29 ERA, but several indicators suggest some regression is coming. He’s benefiting from a low BABIP, an inflated strand rate, and a career-low called strike plus whiff rate. Meanwhile, Tony Gonsolin has struggled, but due to a packed schedule and no off days coming, he may be asked to eat innings regardless of performance. Both teams bring elite offenses. We like the dodgers to get a big home win and stop the Yankees win streak. Big weekend LFG
MLB: 1 Unit ( 10:10 PM EST )
Dodgers ML
The Pirates’ offensive struggles have hit rock bottom, ranking dead last in runs per game despite the Rockies’ historically bad season. Pittsburgh is managing just three runs a night and hitting .206 on the road making every matchup feel uphill. Andrew Heaney has been solid on the surface with a 2.91 ERA, but his low strikeout and whiff rates point to regression, especially against a Diamondbacks lineup that’s far more dangerous at home. Arizona has lost five straight, but this looks like the right spot to bounce back. With several key hitters lined up well vs. Heaney, we like the d backs to win big tonight LFG
MLB: 1 Unit ( 8:10 PM EST )
D-Backs -1.5