Thad Hulett

Farmer #BBN SBN❤

[At The Races @AtTheRaces]

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Get the latest on Chad Brown's @BreedersCup string, here: https://t.co/L7livEtik8

[Frank Ammirante @FAmmiranteTFJ]

RotoBot was BANG on with a low-scoring Cowboys vs Packers game.

Let's see Commanders vs 49ers:

[College Transfer Portal @CollegeFBPortal]

WILD: Cincinnati’s athletic trainer BACKED UP into a wall with the player on the back of the golf cart.

Insane 😭

[Oscar Combs @wildcatnews]

You gotta watch this to get ready for tonight’s @UKFootball road battle with Oklahoma in Norman. #BBN

[Clayton Morris @ClaytonMorris]

Everyone should lock in and order some chlorine dioxide and ivermectin. Just keep it in your house. This new flu/covid strain is no joke. Chlorine dioxide can knock it out in just a few hours.

[Kentucky Football @UKFootball]

unKut: For the Power K 😼

📺 https://t.co/mkm4rsU6bj

[Steins Studs @SteinsStuds]

I’m gonna leave this here 😼

[Thad Hulett @THulett1991]

@RacingDownWind 1

[The RacingDownWind Community @RacingDownWind]

RDW Community: Who is playing Keeneland today

If we get over 50 Likes or Reposts,
I will Post the RDW Grid for today..
You have about 40 minutes to hit the number.

[gmoney @gmoneyNFT]

Holy shit did we just cure cancer?

[Fake David Beckham @FakeBecksKSR]

This
Hits
Like
Crack

[Thad Hulett @THulett1991]

@jenn90808 $50

[Trent Sorensen @trentonsorensen]

Week 7 CFB predictions

[Justin W @SwiftRABBI]

Prat is in Kentucky Weds. then flies into NY Thurs to Ride horse for Friday then back to Keeneland. This must be his derby horse

[Matt Barkley @MattBarkley]

BILLS WINNNN!!!!

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

‡

Magnitude in the Breeders' Cup Classic
Damned if you do, damned if you don't?

Magnitude, winner of the Dubai World Cup over Forever Young, and the Stephen Foster in a fast time, is one of the principal contenders in the upcoming Breeders' Cup Classic.

While he is clearly not the type of one-dimensional horse that needs to be in front every step of the way, it is, I would argue, important to note that he is still essentially a free-runner, and is most comfortable and effective when setting or forcing the pace.

I've marked up his lifetime DRF PPs (attached) to illustrate the point.

▶️ His record is 15 starts 8-2-1. In each of his eight wins (highlighted in green), Magnitude either set or forced the pace. In all four of his unplaced efforts, and his third, beaten over 20 lengths in the Travers (coral), he was unable to gain, or maintain a forward position. He was beaten, and at times badly, by numerous inferior horses (in terms of class), when unable to gain or maintain a forward position.

▶️ His four highest, and five of his six best Beyer Speed Figures (blue) were earned when he set or forced the pace. Note that there is no Beyer available for his Dubai World Cup win, but it can safely be assumed to have been among his four highest.

▶️ The two running lines that are highlighted in yellow represent anomalies. The first, the Gun Runner at the Fair Grounds, was a race in which he chased Built around the track, and was able to hold second (of five). Not a bad effort, in retrospect, given that Built is developing into a nice sprinter, but still only an 80 Beyer, which suggests that Magnitude failed to show his true colors, and was somewhat discouraged when outrun through the middle stages of the race.

▶️ The Pennsylvania Derby was a more clear anomaly, as he was able to rally from off of the pace, though not far off, to finish a creditable second behind Baeza. It was the only race in which Magnitude earned a triple-digit Beyer despite not having set or forced the pace.

▶️ The other two data points that I highlighted (in pink) are interesting for another reason. Since the arguable inflection point of Magnitude's career, when he crushed his opposition in the Risen Star at odds of 43/1, he has only finished worse than second twice, and been beaten by a significant margin twice. All of those occurred in the two highlighted races at Saratoga.

He reportedly became agitated prior to the Travers, and stumbled at the start of the Whitney, but I suspect that it is no coincidence that by far his two worst performances came over the Saratoga main track.

***
While it may be comfortable for handicappers to draw a line through Magnitude's poor effort in the Whitney, I would suggest that his chances of success in the BCC will be closely related to his trip. Should, for example, Sovereignty be withdrawn from the race, and Knightsbridge entered, that would almost certainly reduce Magnitude's chances of winning significantly. Napoleon Solo could also be a thorn in his side.

In essence, I would not be inclined to back Magnitude unless I was confident that he would either dominate the pace, or press other than a strong pace. And it is difficult to imagine either happening, barring key scratches.

Beyond that, despite his anomalous effort in the Pennsylvania Derby, I have little confidence that he is likely to come running from off of the pace to gain a place. Perhaps his new rider, Flavien Prat, will work some magic, but based on the colt's form to date, I'd be inclined to bet against it.

***
The above brings us to the embedded recent workout video, in which Prat got a feel for Magnitude. He is on the outside (white saddle pad) of a talented, lightly raced allowance winner named Preside (blue pad). There are some interesting nuances to note.

The work was clearly designed so that Magnitude would sit off of his workmate. That could well be a hint of the strategy to come in the Classic. Note also that he pulls roughly even at the head of the stretch, and both colts are essentially allowed to finish on their own courage, as they say. Then, watch what happens after the wire. Prat gives a couple of flicks of the whip to Magnitude, yet Preside remains very narrowly ahead, up to and through the point at which both riders are easing up.

I am not trying to suggest that Magnitude is an ungenuine horse, or that he lacks competitive drive. But I am suggesting that what can be seen in the work could possibly be connected to the colt's relative lack of success in races in which he was unable to set or press the pace.

After all, free-running horses tend to be more, and at times much more competitive when they are allowed to race freely. Magnitude appears to be fully tractable while sitting off of his workmate, and caught up with that one willingly. But the latter appeared to "want it" more.

All of this, if correct, could put Asmussen and Prat between the proverbial rock and a hard place. Let the colt roll, and live or die up on what could be a very fast pace, or plan to sit several lengths off of it, and hope that for the first time in his career, and up against the strongest field that he has ever faced, he will rally to victory.

[BigBarrelGeorge @PapawWashington]

This might be the single greatest piece of media I’ve ever made, definitely the most I’ve ever enjoyed making, thank you @CoachWillStein @UKFootball this fanbase needed that

[Thad Hulett @THulett1991]

@RacingDownWind Keeneland. - braida

[The RacingDownWind Community @RacingDownWind]

RDW Community: Saturdays Game Plan?

Rise & Shine, it’s Horse Racing Time

What Track are we playing today?

VOTE: Deadline is 11:00am est. time

1, Belmont Park
2, Keeneland

Who Wins the Queen Elizabeth II ?

If this post gets 225 Likes, Comments or Re-Posts I will post the RDW Grid for the Full Race Card of the Winning Track.

@KeenelandRacing #Keeneland
@TheNYRA #BelmontPark

[Thad Hulett @THulett1991]

@fatbaldguyracin @fatbaldguyracin do you think Knightsbridge gets lead over magnitude in classic ? My thinking would be you have to catch magnitude