tickeryard

Hi there, call me Martin. This is my journal of an aspiring trader. Here to learn and share knowledge.

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

My path: I've walked varied paths already, professional athlete, entrepreneur, management consultant and corporate leadership. Along the way, I’ve learned a lot about people, money, and the quiet patterns that shape them. Trading wasn’t the plan, I stumbled into it, then I made some, lost some and then…I paused. Over the last two years, I’ve taken a step back to study, not just the markets, but myself in relation to them. I built databases, watched and documented price action, developed patterns, studied those who cracked the code, and found something unexpectedly beautiful in the rhythm of it all. For me, trading is a new craft I would like to master, it is a blend of freedom, discipline, and discovery and I’m curious to see how far I can take it.

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

@ChrisCamillo @MrBeast @BeastPhilanthr Chris, you are awesome, thank you for inspiring the kids and the future generation!

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

And this is why @TheShortBear is a market wizard and most of us are not, plain and simple. Great inspiration to go further and deeper in my thinking, analysis and reasoning, thank you TSB 💪

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

I thought we would go over the $CAR dynamics in a deep dive which I haven't done in a while publicly.

I hope this explains what was lacking on Fintwit.

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

Overall, it is absolutely incredible what legends walk amongst us and what they do, how they do it and how humble they are around about it.

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

I am sure many read about this story, 24-year old made $5b in a year. I keep reading about it again and again. Its core premise is simple, develop a thesis, gather facts/data, validate and make informed bets and course correct along the way, plus be super smart in how you do it. Sounds simple :) This substack describes the story well.. https://t.co/2CmdYv4i5e

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

...and this is the thesis he wrote and followed for his bets, my weekend reading :) https://t.co/fWoMtC057L

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

This rebound happened crazy quick, it was difficult to get positioned well for this move. If I were not in market indexes in long-term accounts I would be very upset. Also, imagine how this move stregthens the mindset of buying the dip, tarrifs, wars, all dips leads to higher grounds, kinda of crazy, but that is what forward looking, AI super cycle and margins and earnings expansion mean imo.

[Roy Mattox @RoyLMattox]

This is literally the most extreme momentum event in 40 years of recorded data. The Nasdaq 100's RSI went from 28 (oversold) on March 30 to 70.5 (overbought) by April 15 — in just 11 sessions. That is the fastest oversold-to-overbought transition in the Nasdaq 100's 40-year recorded history. The previous fastest was 25 sessions after Liberation Day last year. The historical average is 60+ sessions. Benzinga

According to Bespoke Investment Group, this also marks the fastest move from a correction of this size to a new record high since 1928. Yahoo Finance

The forward return data is actually quite bullish long-term. Across all 44 historical episodes where the Nasdaq gained 11% or more in 10 sessions, the 12-month forward return averaged +24%, with a median of +30%, and a win rate of 80%. At 6 months, the win rate is 74%. Benzinga

But the near-term pullback is almost guaranteed. The average maximum drawdown following these signals was −18.39% — meaning while the 12-month destination is historically higher, the journey involves deep, punishing pullbacks that can severely impact over-leveraged portfolios. Ainvest

The key number to watch: Based on the 6 most comparable historical analogues — COVID recovery (−8%), Liberation Day 2025 (−4%), Fed pivot 2018 (−6%), Asian crisis 1997 (−7%) — the most probable near-term pullback is 3-8% within the next 2-4 weeks. The April 22 ceasefire expiry is the most likely trigger. After that consolidation, the historical data overwhelmingly favors a resumption of the bull trend.

The S&P 500 has experienced average intra-year declines of roughly 14% since 1990, even in years that finish strongly positive — and the average correction (10-20% decline) lasts just 17 days. U.S. Bank

A pullback here isn't a disaster; it's the historical norm and historically the best re-entry point.

Wes and I are extremely well positioned in the leaders.

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

@TheShortBear Maestro 🥂💪

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

This was worth the risk for sure and good level to risk off of, the q is what's next and how to place bets. In my view, the next leg will for sure depend on latest devs in Iran war, but i think less probability for continuation and more probability to fade most extended oil related tickers, lets see :)

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

$USO clearly, a macro trade since Feb, this weekend super important to see what happens in the Iran Us conflict as breaking the 125 level would be totally catastrophic for almost everything in real economic sense. I sense BTC will give us a sense check of reactions to market developments this weekend, followed by futures on Sun evening. Also notable the intraday price action on Fri with the wicks on volume above VWAP in second half the day and the overall reaction off the 121 level. Next week will be super interesting.

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

@James_F94 for me, it for sure is "Reminiscence of a stock Operator Jesse Livermore", so many lessons in that book

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

$USO clearly, a macro trade since Feb, this weekend super important to see what happens in the Iran Us conflict as breaking the 125 level would be totally catastrophic for almost everything in real economic sense. I sense BTC will give us a sense check of reactions to market developments this weekend, followed by futures on Sun evening. Also notable the intraday price action on Fri with the wicks on volume above VWAP in second half the day and the overall reaction off the 121 level. Next week will be super interesting.

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

My thesis on crypto was spot on, liquidations, chart levels, price action, my thesis on SPY, ORCL, CRCL, RGTI also spot on, but executions :(, so much lost in opportunity (not trades), I need to step back, rewire, rethink and link my thoughts to action.

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

I always over complicate things, over analyze, read too much, it all leads to so much lost opportunity, it is now toooooo much, i cannot let this continue. All my initial thesis, views, out looks confirm, those that I spend little time on, then I need to know more and that is where it goes wrong, action stops and lost opportunity starts. Enough is enough, I have my plan now, need to rewire many processes, need to let go!

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

The fact that some of these wizards, like @TheShortBear, are active on X is a blessing. Couple it with grok - an ai tool you can use to reason, derive insight, reconstruct his trades and his thoughts process, create summarises of his trade write ups etc. Also worth mentioning his substack and YT channel, you can mine those sources of information and get unparalleled insight into his mind. It is a huge positive net net all around.

[George Coyle @gfc4]

A lot of people are hating on the fact that the Next Gen Market Wizards are active on X and I think this is a big mistake. As you will see if you read the upcoming book, these guys are more transparent on how they do what they do than perhaps any other collection of Wizards. Combine that with the fact that you can follow them in real time and see what they are talking about in terms of trading opportunities and you basically have a playbook with real time alerts. I imagine prior generations would have jumped at the chance to see what the Wizards of old were saying. Today that is not only possible but it is actually happening! Despite this, people are hating. Make me understand. @Tradestl @TheOneLanceB @TheShortBear @Off_The_Tape

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

This is a very interesting chart. I recall for one SLT meeting I had to run last year, I needed to build a business case in xls and slides, with assumptions, value levers etc. I knew this meeting is taking place for the sake of it, so no point to invest time into it. I built the xls business case with GPT, validated all assumptions, refined the logic, numbers etc, presented it to the SLT members. They all loved it and ended up sharing it with their mgmt. It took ~4 hours to build it, but it would have taken me at least 4 full days to build in a traditional way, that was an eye opener to me, and that was early last year when the tools were less capable than today!

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

14h of work in one prompt.

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

Cannot wait to drink the inspiration from these traders who achieved such massive success in the markets!

[George Coyle @gfc4]

The upcoming Market Wizards book is approaching completion. As such, @jackschwager and I have decided to release the names of the traders included in the book and their associated X handles. Here they are:

Kristjan Kullamägi @Qullamaggie
Lance Breitstein @TheOneLanceB
Simon Russo @simonrusso__
Lukas Fröhlich @TheShortBear
Phil Goedeker @Tradestl
Kelvin Chiu @KC_SilverCape
Jason Berry @Positive_Equity
Kenny Sharkness of @smbcapital (Kenny has no public X account)
Rick Bandazian Jr. @Off_The_Tape

Looking forward to sharing the book with the world!

If you'd like to pre-order the book, you can do so here: https://t.co/yJ9wjrw9Pp

For discounted bulk orders (US only) go here: https://t.co/gJoKIF2dr5

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

Imagine refunding the revenues from tarrifs back to China and Russia, they must be laughing. The whole situation is so illogical.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

SUPREME COURT STRIKES DOWN TRUMP’S GLOBAL TARIFFS

The Supreme Court ruled Friday that President Trump’s global tariffs are illegal, rejecting his use of emergency powers to impose trade duties.

• The tariffs, covering imports from Canada, China, Mexico, and nearly all countries, were projected to raise $1.5 trillion over a decade.
• Trump justified them as a response to fentanyl and trade deficits, declaring national emergencies.
• Lawsuits argued the tariffs were unauthorized taxes on Americans, and lower courts largely agreed.
• The decision ends a signature White House trade policy, which had remained in place during litigation.

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

For a few days now I've been watching @TheShortBear's videos on his YT channel, they are from many years ago, but they offer great insight into his way of intraday trading back then, stock analysis, stock selection, setups etc, and coupled with how we can use AI today, extracting and documenting insight and logic from those videos is just amazing.

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

Did not really expect a reversal like this across the board off the jobs report, expected a little more strength. The 0DTE puts on SPY went crazy, are we in a market where good news is bad news and used for liquidity?

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

This cant be good for $BTC. Price action in BTC since the rebound off 60k has not been very strong/ convincing, are we going lower?

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

BLOCKFILLS HALTS WITHDRAWALS AMID CRYPTO TURMOIL

Susquehanna-backed crypto lender BlockFills has suspended client deposits and withdrawals, citing recent market volatility. The Chicago-based firm, which serves 2,000 institutional clients and handled $60 bn in 2025 trading, remains open for select trading but is limiting liquidity.

The move echoes past crypto downturns, including the 2022 collapse of FTX and other lenders. Bitcoin’s recent drop below $65,000—down ~45% from October highs—has intensified pressures, while stalled U.S. crypto legislation continues to weigh on the market.

[tickeryard @tickeryard]

Will $SPY finally break 700? Every now and then I add to it, my piggy bank, some idle cash aside, ATH would certainly not hurt :)