Graduated! Very grateful for my advisors, Mike Jordan and Ryan Tibshirani, who set the Pareto frontier for brilliance and kindness 🧠🩷
Next stop: MIT for a postdoc with @stats_stephen!
Come say hi at my @iclr_conf poster (Friday 10:30am, Pavilion 3 #316) to chat about prediction sets or why @PlantNetProject is my favorite plant identification app!
New paper: Conformal prediction for long-tailed classification🐒
https://t.co/J1PJARDU3M
🧑🌾 (plant enthusiast): Help me identify plants!
🤖 (existing conformal algs): Do you want sets that never include rare plants or sets that contain 100s of labels?
🧑🌾: Uhh… neither? A🧵(1/n)
My collaborator Joseph Salmon made a beautiful blog post about our paper, featuring an *interactive* recreation of a figure from Sadinle, Lei & Wasserman's iconic 2019 conformal prediction paper. Go check it out!
Blog post: https://t.co/IBp17upNQa
New paper: Conformal prediction for long-tailed classification🐒
https://t.co/J1PJARDU3M
🧑🌾 (plant enthusiast): Help me identify plants!
🤖 (existing conformal algs): Do you want sets that never include rare plants or sets that contain 100s of labels?
🧑🌾: Uhh… neither? A🧵(1/n)
@kayo_yin So fun biking with you! More rides soon… Just found out that Wildcat Canyon Rd is being closed to cyclists so it can be reopened for cars — tragic. Have to take advantage of good biking while we can :)
This is joint work with Jean-Baptiste Fermanian & Joseph Salmon and inspired by discussions with the rest of the @PlantNetProject team (p.s. Check out their awesome plant identification app if you haven’t yet!🌱) (n/n)
New paper: Conformal prediction for long-tailed classification🐒
https://t.co/J1PJARDU3M
🧑🌾 (plant enthusiast): Help me identify plants!
🤖 (existing conformal algs): Do you want sets that never include rare plants or sets that contain 100s of labels?
🧑🌾: Uhh… neither? A🧵(1/n)
All of these tools lead to strong empirical performance on PlantNet and iNaturalist. Check out the looooong tail; this is a tough setting! Some classes are left with 0 holdout examples for calibration (4/n)
📯 New work! Conformal Prediction Sets with Improved Conditional Coverage using Trust Scores.
https://t.co/fWBfRIObOf
How useful are prediction sets that achieve 90% marginal coverage by failing on 10% cases that are challenging? Not very useful for clinicians who require uncertainty estimates for critical cases in diagnosis!
Can we improve coverage where it matters most? 🧵 (1/n)
📣Announcing the 2024 NeurIPS Workshop on Statistical Frontiers in LLMs and Foundation Models 📣
Submissions open now, deadline September 15th
https://t.co/mJeNkWQv2U
If your work intersects with statistics and black-box models, please submit! This includes:
✅ Bias
✅ Benchmarking
✅ Automatic evaluation
✅ Watermarking
✅ Conformal prediction and black-box uncertainty quantification
✅ Privacy and data rights
✅ Auditing
We’re looking forward to seeing your submissions!
Co-organizers: @stats_stephen@alexdamour@tatsu_hashimoto@JessicaHullman@FannyYangETH !
Program Committee: Chance Johnstone @DrewPrinster@huiwensun_ Eleni Straitouri @MargauxZaffran
Provisional speakers include: @MihaelaVDS@bschoelkopf Virginia Smith and @weijie444 , up to scheduling considerations :)
@JessicaHullman Thanks for the post! I’m curious what you think the conformal community (i.e., ppl working on methods + theory) could do to complement the great work being done by your group and others in HCI to understand how humans decision makers actually use conformal prediction sets
The greatest accomplishment of my statistics career has been winning this year’s @UCBStatistics T-shirt design competition with a @SFBART-inspired shirt designed w/ @aashen12!
{stats nerds} ∩ {public transit nerds} ≠ ∅ 📉🚅
Interested in uncertainty quantification and how to make conformal prediction sets more practically useful? Come to our poster at #NeurIPS23!
📍Poster #1623
🕙 Thursday 10:45-12:45
w/ @ml_angelopoulos, @stats_stephen, Michael I. Jordan & Ryan Tibshirani
https://t.co/t8QZT827j0
This is joint work with @ml_angelopoulos, @stats_stephen, Michael I. Jordan, and Ryan J. Tibshirani.
Please reach out if you’re interested in chatting about conformal prediction or statistics in general! (4/4)
📢New paper! Class-conditional conformal prediction with many classes
https://t.co/t8QZT827j0
👩⚕️ (doctor): “Give me uncertainty on the patient diagnosis.”
🤖(conformal): “The 95% prediction set is {normal}.”
👨🏻(patient): ☠️
How do you avoid this negative outcome? A 🧵(1/4)
A naive strategy is to split the data classwise and run conformal once per class.
But with many classes/limited data, this gives bad results (big sets, etc.)
In clustered conformal prediction, we cluster classes that have similar score distributions and pool their data! (3/4)