Tim @timdole - Twitter Profile

Tesla and SpaceX over the next few months: • June 18: CRSP index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $4-7B in forced buying by passive funds. • June 18: FTSE Russell index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $6-9B in forced buying by passive funds. • June 26: MSCI index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $3-5B in forced buying by passive funds. • End of June: HW3 Tesla owners get FSD V14 Light. Expect possible delays. • July 2: Tesla Q2 vehicle and energy storage delivery report. • July 6: NASDAQ 100 index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $8-12B in forced buying by passive funds. • Late July: Tesla Q2 earnings call. • Early-mid August: SpaceX Q2 earnings call, their first earnings call as a public company. • 2 trading days after SpaceX's Q2 earnings released: 30% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 12% of all outstanding shares). NOTE: Since only about 40% of all outstanding shares are eligible for early release lockups, that 30% above equates to 12% of all outstanding shares. Elon's shares, board member shares, and some others, are subject to an extended lockup of 366 days. Together, the shares subject to these extended lockup restrictions represent 60% of SpaceX's outstanding shares. • August 21: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares). • September 10: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares). • September 25: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares). • September: Indexes rebalance. SpaceX will then have a higher weighting in those indexes due to an increase in the public float from insider shares being unlocked. Passive funds would likely need to purchase billions of dollars worth of additional shares to bring their holdings in line with the new index weight. • October 2: Tesla Q3 vehicle and energy storage delivery report. • October 12: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares). • October 26: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares). • Late October: Tesla Q3 earnings call. • Early-mid November: SpaceX Q3 earnings call. • 2 trading days after SpaceX's Q3 earnings released: 28% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 11.2% of all outstanding shares). • December 9: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares). • December: Indexes rebalance again. SpaceX will then have an even higher weighting in those indexes due to an increase in the public float from insider shares being unlocked. Passive funds would likely need to purchase billions of dollars worth of additional shares to bring their holdings in line with the new index weight. (The Cursor acquisition will likely affect these lockup percentages slightly)

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