After I made a thread about prediction markets back in 2025, I had plans to look into them more deeply but that didn't end up happening.
Back to it now, 2 days ago I found a rising prediction market being built on the BNB chain that's got backing from YZI Labs as its tier 1 investor.
Fundraising incubation happened on the 16th of December 2024 (still early).
Introducing Probable (@0xprobable)
Here's a quick 2 min intro ๐งต
In essence, I think this question keeps coming up because the bull market made room for a lot of BS and experiments.
When liquidity was flowing, almost anything could attract capital and attention. Projects that had no real reason to exist were able to survive simply because money was abundant.
Now liquidity is tighter and users are becoming more selective. There's no capital left to support every narrative, token, or copy-paste experiment.
What we're seeing isn't crypto dying, it's the market naturally filtering out what never had PMF to begin with.
crypto is dying?
think this question is a result of oversimplification or lazy thinking about the current crypto situation
crypto isn't dying except that some parts are, which to me is normal considering that we spent years funding or even overfunding experiments that never worked
a lot of projects/tokens were never meant to exist:
- generic L1s
- vanilla L2s (lol)
- governance tokens (lmao even)
- 69th derivatives of every memecoin
the bull market condition allowed them to cos capital and attention was abundant then...
now a lot has changed, liquidity has tightened, the market has become more efficient and as a result, users are becoming super selective, it's almost like what we're seeing now is natural selection happening
cos zoom out and you'd see stablecoins being used by real businesses and payment companies (neobank), blackrock coming onchain thanks to tokenization, prediction market attracting normies etc
zoom out again, and you'd notice these signals aren't really coming from ct native users
zoom out even further and you'd notice these products are becoming less visibly crypto
so what's the point here? in the midst of "crypto is dying", mainstream adoption is growing really fast, you just can't see it cos you're balls deep in shiba inu's 69th deriv and waiting for a normie to dump on (sorry for your l0ss)
so now, stop dwelling on the dyรฏng part and focus on the part proving real pmf, identify what's gonna survive and be early to
@Wesley12_11 I'm a skilled writer & designer, check my highlights for some of my best work.
I've been inactive for months due to some IRL commitments, but I'm ready to get back to writing and creating again.
A 3-month blue tick would be the perfect push to get me started.
๐ฉท&๐ก