Tim Craighead

Senior European Strategist, Director of Research - Content, Bloomberg Intelligence. Opinions are my own. @BBGIntelligence

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

1Q earnings are pivotal for EU mkts after suffering two quarters of misses/negative revisions; these 10 companies will showcase key themes: AI, automation, China, energy transition, pricing power, anti-obesity, defense spending. More on @BBGIntelligence at https://t.co/nOQJKTbU06

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

A bit more give and take on our 10 Focus Ideas to Watch in 2Q - take a listen!
https://t.co/Pj2CFS7Eu4

@BBGIntelligence #stockmarkets #StocksToWatch #StocksInFocus

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

From software and travel recoveries to worries for HK retail and Chinese IPOs, our "10 Focus Ideas to Watch for 2Q" identify catalysts that could shift mkt perceptions for Salesforce, Accor, Chow Tai Fook, Tencent, Pirelli... More on @BBGIntelligence at https://t.co/qYW4UP8IoC

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

The Swedish mkt is setting records but we're leery its relying on two sectors that are both now at risk. Industrials and financials (75% of the OMX) earnings are stalling as valuations are pushing extremes. More on @BBGIntelligence at https://t.co/51U4fTMi1n
#stocks #investing

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

If not for BP, Shell, Rio and Glencore, FTSE EPS would be up 6% since Jan'23; as it is, it's down 8%. This composition challenge is core to our FTSE concern. Ests are also slipping across other key UK sectors. More on @BBGIntelligence at https://t.co/tBD1G6zm0i #investing #FTSE

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

The Swiss Market's 17x P/E, Europe's dearest, look excessive, but it's due to index composition. Many of its bellwethers - Richemont, Roche, Novartis, ABB - trade below peers. Nestle, Zurich are close. UBS' premium is one-off. On @BBGIntelligence at https://t.co/sZDjpn6kUE

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

FTSE 100 P/E vs commodity prices = inverse relationship. Oil and metal boom-bust cycles impact the index because the two add to >20% of the FTSE weight. This exposure is part of why we don't expect a big P/E bounce in 2024. More on @BBGIntelligence at https://t.co/yE4iAVF9Y9

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

LVMH, Porsche, Diageo, Nestle are 4 of 15 high-quality European brands in consumer, pharma and tech that are missing the global equity rally. That's despite high ROEs and est'd l-t growth. Reasons for the lag should pass. Find the list at @BBGIntelligence https://t.co/lveqlk0Ltr

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

Size is a standout FTSE 100 factor, beating value and growth in 2023, w/ interest rates being a key driver. If 2024 sees a sustained drop in 10-year yields, it could be a year for small caps, as was seen in November-December. More on @BBGIntelligence at https://t.co/W9vmNfTJAz

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

Final Davos day: provided a brief set up for World Bank president Ajay Banga at Bloomberg House Davos. Five @BBGIntelligence keys for 2024: central bank pivots, critical elections, China’s property mkt, energy transition trends, AI/tech spending. To watch: https://t.co/1HnA32DvSz

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

I had the good fortune to present at a Think Tank roundtable at Bloomberg House Davos today. A few points: Central Bank pivots key for markets now priced for near perfection. Also shared insights from my @BBGIntelligence colleagues re: Elections, China Tech/AI, Energy Transition.

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

Maybe the best BBG Office view: Bloomberg House.
Great to hear Sam Altman, Open AI, + Marc Benioff, Salesforce, in person at Bloomberg House in Davos today.
AI is a tool, not a creature
AI is changing jobs with a massive productivity boost, not replacing jobs
@BBGIntelligence

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

Going to Davos next week? Let's catch up! I'll be there as part of the agenda at Bloomberg House. https://t.co/n16Zm4kqn3

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

The FTSE's reversal from safe haven amid 2022's drawdown to straggler in 2023's Europe's rally is striking. As we feared, key supporting pillars turned into fundamental challenges. What about 2024? Our Outlook comes next week! More on @BBGIntelligence at https://t.co/tn8Y0CehkJ

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

Europe’s €460 Billion China Exposure Faces Early 2024 Test. While many companies' 3Q results from China were better than feared, the y/y comps were still easy. The real challenge comes in 1Q/2Q. More on @BBGIntelligence at https://t.co/2L1vAt67B3
#stoxx600

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

With just 3% est'd growth in 2024 after a 2023 drop, the French mkt's EPS outlook offers little for enthusiasm. Op margins are resilience so far, but prospects are diminishing with recent negative revisions in 3Q's wake. more on @BBGIntelligence at https://t.co/rjKq7Nb3Vg

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

The German mkt's lowly 10x P/E begs why? Composition is part w/ its big Autos. But most of the DAX's other bellwethers are also depressed vs global peers. Unfortunately, this is often for good reason. See our note for more on @BBGIntelligence at https://t.co/bywIe2nz0h #DAX

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

How to quickly assess Europe's disappointing 3Q earnings season? Go to our @BBGIntelligence Earnings Tracker on BI STOXE on the terminal at https://t.co/5lhE0TYf8l Our US team has something similar on BI STOXN.
#earnings #stoxx600 #investing

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

BBG TV always hits on the important points (European earnings today), but there is sometimes a lighter side! Thanks @daniburgz and @ManusCranny! More on our 3Q analysis @BBGIntelligence at https://t.co/IEcRzGeWLA
#stockmarkets #earnings #investing

[Tim Craighead @timocraighead]

3Q European Earnings: 1) A few points from yours truly in our midpoint assessment on BBG TV this am, and 2) our note with details on disappointing sales vs resilient margins. https://t.co/0VX3eBhpze and @BBGIntelligence at https://t.co/IEcRzGeWLA #earnings #investing #stocks