Tim Watson

Sir Roland Wilson Scholar / Policy Dude / 2e Economist / Crawford School of Public Policy / Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis / Usual disclaimers...

[Tim Watson @TimxWatson]

@rohan_connolly @7RockLists Yep, their cover of Ticket to Ride is great also.

[Tim Watson @TimxWatson]

@davegraney Great book!🤓

[katy 🌸 @KatyKray73]

The Australian accent was first noted around 1820. Colonial authorities were puzzled by the distinctive way the children of the settlers were speaking.

It had developed as a unique blend of English, Irish, Scottish, and Welsh dialects that had never been heard together in Britain, formed through daily mixing in the new townships.

The Australian accent evolved from:
🏴��󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇮🇪 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

[Tim Watson @TimxWatson]

@MattCowgill @Simon_Mongey Perth or Melbourne? Is this a Russell Crowe situation?😆

[Florin Bilbiie 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @FlorinBilbiie]

🚀 Draft chapters my forthcoming MIT Press book:
𝗛𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝗔𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀: A Tractable New Keynesian Framework
A modern, analytical roadmap to TANK & HANK models for researchers, students and policy institutions
https://t.co/La1oqEmGEY
👇

[Joshua Gans @joshgans]

I have a new paper out today. Gen AI shows a pattern: it excels at some tasks but fails at seemingly similar ones. This "jagged" performance creates a fundamental problem for users trying to decide when to rely on AI. I explain why this happens and what it means. 👇🧵

[Tim Watson @TimxWatson]

@BenPhillips_ANU I got it funded and reestablished in the 2018 Women’s Economic Security Statement- But I don’t think it has ongoing funding at present. The next release is listed as ‘unknown’

[AEA Journals @AEAjournals]

Forthcoming in the JEL: "How Do Central Banks Control Inflation? A Guide for the Perplexed" by Laura Castillo-Martinez and Ricardo Reis. https://t.co/yoAOXAvbZa

[Karsten Müller @KarstenMueIIer]

🚨 New Paper and Public Good🚨

"The Global Macro Database: A New International Macroeconomic Dataset", joint with @chenzix, Mohammed Lehbib, and Ziliang Chen.

We built the most comprehensive macro database ever—covering 243 countries from 1086-today, integrating 110 sources. 🧵

[Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1]

DeepSeek and what happened yesterday: Probably the largest positive tfp shock in the history of the world.

[Kweku Opoku-Agyemang, Ph.D @KwekuOA]

Don't miss out on this guide on how to run surveys: on creating your own identifying variation: more than 80 pages and an Appendix with examples including social desirability, vignettes, information treatments and more.

[Graeme Innes @Graemeinnes]

I live in a world not built for me, here is what I have learned

https://t.co/ho8pbrZksL

[Chris Richardson @ChrisEconomist]

TREASURY HAS RELEASED ITS LATEST ESTIMATES OF THE COST OF TAX CONCESSIONS

Exciting, huh? (I have a low excitement threshold. I am, after all, an economist.)

To me the standout is that Treasury has hugely revised up its estimates of the cost of superannuation tax concessions.

The cost of those concessions next year is now estimated at $64bn - some $9.3bn more than estimated less than a year ago.

The bulk of the higher costs are due to a huge lift in the estimated cost of tax concessions on earnings within super.

To be clear, it's hard to properly estimate the tax concessions given to super.

To be even clearer, the concessions given to earnings within super are cray cray.

That’s because parts of the tax system that make sense in isolation collide in silly ways inside super:

(1) The tax system should encourage saving – and ours does through super.

(2) The tax system should recognise that inflation can artificially inflate capital gains – and ours (indirectly) does through a capital gains tax discount.

(3) And the tax system should avoid taxing the same income twice – as ours does through franking credits.

But super funds get the benefit of all three of these. And super has a very heavy reliance on Australian shares, many of them with fully franked earnings.

The upshot is that we’ve massively overdone the concessions. Super funds make earnings on which they have to pay 15% in tax, but then those same earnings often come with a 30% tax credit attached.

Nice little earner, huh?

No wonder that Treasury has had to massively revise up its estimates of the concession ...

(More ranting here ... https://t.co/iVnaKMsgmm and here https://t.co/HyyZBuZoER)

[Melbourne Disability Institute @mdi_unimelb]

📢Very important new research from @unimelb's Dr @_yi_yang, Peter Summers, @ZoeAitken11 @Kavanagh_AM @gdisney_melb looking at mortality inequalities between people with and without disability. Targeted interventions and policy reforms are needed now. https://t.co/wC3gGDTyPl

[Austaxpolicy @Austaxpolicy]

#TTPI #Seminar Parenting Payment Single is a welfare payment for low-income single mothers in Australia. Does changing the payment eligibility have employment and earnings effects? @SobeckKristen https://t.co/kR5tWTOjo8

[Chris Richardson @ChrisEconomist]

My truly wonderful friend and mentor – Geoff Carmody – has passed away.

This lovely story by @Johnkehoe23 – https://t.co/Qj7GhsI1Nf– gets to the heart of it: Geoff had an absolute passion for a better Australia.

That meant no phone call from Geoff was ever short: he brimmed with ideas on everything from tax to super to aviation and tourism policy and the energy transition.

(And no phone call ever finished without a joke – the man had an endless supply!)

A better Australia is built on the back of people like Geoff and the passion they have.

I miss him already.

[Tim Watson @TimxWatson]

@BlairWilliams26 You’ve just got to change companies- I get these notices all the time for insurance. All the companies do it, and you just have to switch

[Tim Watson @TimxWatson]

Some news coverage today suggesting the COVID-19 SME Cashflow Boost measure has never been formally evaluated- it has been! https://t.co/DhVpbkW8Pb