TingHan

u have no responsibilities yet so risk everything to success

[Killa @KillaXBT]

The funniest part is everyone wanted to long below the lows.

Hindsight is a b*tch. The market doesn’t reward the majority. Let that be a lesson!

Currently, we have a sell wall building above us. The 80-83K region will take some time to crack for $BTC.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

You’re never seeing $50K again.

The bottom is in, and next cycle, the bottom will likely be in the high 90Ks. We are going to 160K+.

i.e.) I posted this chart a few weeks back. Aged like fine wine.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

“Which means BTC bottoms in July/August.”

They called me a fool for betting against something that had never happened before.

They said I was early.
They said Q4 was the time to buy.

In the end, the ATH pre-halving changed everything just like I said it would.

I was right for spotting the subtle shifts ahead of the 99%.

And that’s my friend is why $BTC will create a new ATH next year quicker than every previous cycle.

[Pierre @pierre_crypt0]

$BTC - H4

Before planning for any HTF retests (D1 or W1, with W1 being ideal after yesterday close), focus remains on LTF trend and particularly H4.

Notes on chart, pretty straightforward imo.

Let's see what Bessent has to say and if market likes it.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

If we observe the 2022 bottom, most of the time bottoms form with 1 major impulse candle, like what we have seen.

In terms of retests, we usually don't see the "ideal retest". After BTC broke from 16K to 25K, it retested 19K, aligning with the 0.618.

If we apply the same principle to this impulsive candle up, then any push down is likely to be shallow, with the 73-70K region potentially serving as the local range bottom before pushing through 80K.

Before that, I expect some sort of range to form, accumulating late longs and building liquidity. We may even see another sweep above 79.5K before the final flush into the low 70s, followed by expansion.

You usually don't see an instant retrace of these trend shifting impulsive candles because it defeats the objective. The market needs to build long liquidity first before the final sweep and expansion.

So before we test any of these lower regions, I think we can expect more range based movement to accumulate liquidity.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

The $BTC bottom is in.

We flipped STH cost basis. Something which I mentioned at 65K.

Quote: "The moment we reclaim 67.4K and start trading in the mid-70Ks, holding above the STH cost basis, the bottom is in."

But before we even think about 90K, 80-83K is the area to crack.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

Disbelief.. $BTC ✅

[Heiro @HeiroCapital]

holy banger of a read

can just use this framework again the next time you want to buy/sell cyclical lows/highs

this one goes in the bookmarks, will be used again in the 2-3 years for guidance

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

Are they really going to let everyone long the sweep?

Cause it sure as hell looks like that's what people want...

[Tim Denning @Tim_Denning]

When you turn 35 you'll see the difference between those who took risks and those who didn't.

[Stoic @Stoiiic]

Detailed BTC Top-Down Outlook

bookmark away, not making this an article.

1W

> declining volume for ~5 weeks now = high disinterest.

> 44 weeks of bearish weekly trend being resistance for any attempt at a counter trend rally (started w/ 10/10.

> historical cycle statistics in image.
(will post separately about comparison to this and potential divergence)

[Lima @limalemonnn]

this is insane. i genuinely don't understand why ambitious people aren't shown this lecture before their careers start consuming their entire lives.

clayton christensen spent his career studying why successful companies collapse. in his final class, he asked students to apply the theory to themselves: if you keep allocating your time the same way, what life are you actually building?

he had already seen the answer in his own harvard mba class. everyone looked successful at the fifth reunion; by the 10th, 15th, 20th, and 25th, many were unhappy, divorced, and living far from their children.

work shows you the score immediately. close a sale, ship a product, finish a presentation, earn a promotion, get paid.

an hour with your child may produce nothing you can measure today; it may take 20 years to understand what that hour built. so the next free hour goes back to work, one rational decision at a time.

this is how people build lives they never planned: through hundreds of right decisions that lead in the wrong direction, day after day.

money, titles, and headcount are easy to count. christensen believed a life should be measured by the people who became better because you were there.

he died in 2020.

one question remains: if someone saw only where your time, energy, and attention went this year, what would they think actually mattered to you?

the full 19-minute lecture is in the video below.

[mentalium @mentalium_]

Jane street pays $600,000 for the skill of selling anything to anyone, and now this 21 minute Tony Robbins masterclass filmed 30 years ago in his castle gives it to you completely free.

This is the uncut 1992 session. Just raw persuasion from the master who coached presidents and billionaires.

You will learn how to find anyone's buying state and anchor your offer to that feeling. No scripts. No tricks. Just psychology that works on everyone.

This rare tape disappears regularly. Save it while you can ⭣

[Killa @KillaXBT]

Welp... by no surprise, exactly what I said would happen is happening.

We’re now at that stage of the cycle where everyone starts getting impatient due to the lack of volatility. Their dopamine levels die down, so naturally, they feel the need to overleverage even further.

It already looks like that frustration is starting to play out, with OI absolutely flying through the roof.

The only people who survive conditions like this are the ones who are simply sitting on their hands, patiently waiting for the market to show its hand, or those trading with significantly lower leverage & are buying long term bags.

We should see some nice $BTC volatility soon.

[Tomás Vendel @vendel_tomas]

Todavía lo releo cada semana.

Es, sin exagerar, uno de los artículos más valiosos que he leído sobre cómo cambiar tu vida.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

Every bear cycle, Bitcoin has always smacked into the purple and green bands. This cycle, that zone sits right around 48–52K.

With roughly 1.5 months of bear‑market price action left, it’s completely realistic. But if we roll through October/November without touching 48–52K, then we’re not going there, and the bottom is almost certainly already in.

[Ki Young Ju @ki_young_ju]

Bitcoin OG traders just had their most profitable cycle ever.

Unlike past cycles, crypto exchange traders were not the exit liquidity. ETFs and DATs were.

That structural bid pushed Binance traders' unrealized profits to nearly triple the 2021 top. 🧵

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

The more I look around, the more convinced I am that this is the scenario 90% of people are positioning for.

"Just fill my long first, then pump."

It feels like we're at that stage of the cycle where everyone is trying to play guru and catch the macro bottom, even though the cycles are shifting.

We saw a new ATH before the halving for the first time in Bitcoin's history. We're also seeing cycle bottoms form progressively sooner. Likewise, this cycle appeared to top earlier others. These are meaningful structural changes that a lot of people seem to dismiss because they expect every cycle to follow the same 4 year pattern.

I think a lot of people are going to learn this lesson the hard way. The obvious trade is rarely the one that pays, and catching the exact bottom has never been as straightforward as people make it out to be.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

They will say, “Killa won’t hold a $BTC long for 2 years.”

Hold my beer.

APR on Binance, Bybit & many other exchanges averages around 0.01% every 8H reset, which is 0.03% a day, 0.21% a week, and roughly 0.84% a month. That equates to around 10.08% funding per year, and that’s assuming funding stays at 0.03% every single day.

I remember last cycle, there were plenty of periods where funding was actually negative or sitting around 0.00%. So that metric could end up being significantly lower.

Theoretically speaking, on a 2X long position that I’ll be aiming to get a 100–120% increase on, I’m looking at a 200–240% return on my assets while paying a maximum of roughly 20% in funding over two years.

That’s a small price to pay for the potential return you’re getting.

So sure, you can think this position is irrational, and you can think the stop loss is retarded. But it’s simple mathematics. It’s the same way I positioned myself when BTC was at $123K with a 3X short position.

In the end, I was right then.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

$BTC

The 5th Pivot

As mentioned in my monthly open pivot post, we saw the expected pump at the start of the month, which played out as anticipated.

Now, we're pushing into the 5th Pivot, a key date to watch. Over the past 1.5 years, simply inversing the prevailing narrative around this period would have captured multiple 3-4% moves in the opposite direction.

If that historical pattern continues, we could see some de-risking following this pivot.

That said, it's worth noting what happened last time. While we did get the expected drop, price was trading within a difficult range, which resulted in choppy price action rather than a clean move lower. Instead, BTC consolidated and chopped into the next pivot.

So while the historical tendency points towards inversing the narrative, the current enviroment is abit tricky. So structure is just as important.