Let me tell you exactly what's happening here. Just like with currency intervention the amount they're intervening with (or buying back) is peanuts compared to the actual problem....but it often kickstarts a chain reaction.
That's the hope here. The Treasury is getting desperate for buyers so Bessent is threatening to buy more in hopes that bond buyers rush in.
So far, the bond market is telling him to F off.
⚠️ We are seeing INSANELY low $SPY volume here. We basically see this every year and 2026 is following the age old pattern.
Is it something to worry about? Not really.
HOWEVER, VIX is also near the lowest point relative to the year. And this typically leads to BIG VIX pops in the Sep-Oct period.
IMO, you'd be a fool not to be in VIX calls 1-2 months out.
If the Fed hikes now, expect something to break as mid/long yields are soaring organically already.
As Warsh pointed out during the last FOMC press conference market forces (i.e. yields) were effectively handling part of the tightening process for the Fed.
The steepening curve is doing some of the central bank's heavy lifting without requiring explicit policy changes.
$AMZN implied earnings move +/- 7% ish
$AAPL implied earnings move +/- 4.5% ish
$META implied earnings move +/- 8% ish
$MSFT implied earnings move +/- 7% ish
Early implieds. Could shift a little bit as we get closer to Wed/Thurs. But general sense.
$NVDA
The same way I called the top in $MU and bottom and rotations in Software like $NOW
ALL LF YIU WILL REGRET NOT GRABBING $NVDA here when it’s $220 soon 😘
The average drawdown for $SPY in midterm years is -17%. Although seasonal data is a great foundation sometimes, these are the 2 levels that make sense to me for the S&P 500 current structure.
✅ 100MA at June lows
✅ 0.5 retracement of the entire "peace deal" run, at previous all time highs
Key Events This Week:
1. ADP Employment Change data - Tuesday
2. Tesla, $TSLA, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Report Earnings - Wednesday
3. Initial Jobless Claims data - Thursday
4. Intel, $INTC, Reports Earnings - Thursday
5. July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data - Friday
6. July New Home Sales data - Friday
Earnings season is officially in full-swing.
Key Events This Week:
1. Markets React to Strait of Hormuz Closure - Today, 6 PM ET
2. June CPI Inflation data - Tuesday
3. June PPI Inflation data - Wednesday
4. June Retail Sales data - Thursday
5. July Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday
6. July MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday
7. July MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday
8. ~10% of S&P 500 Companies Report Earnings
We have a highly eventful week ahead of us.
Key Events This Week:
1. US Markets React to Strait of Hormuz Strikes - Today
2. May JOLTs Job Openings data - Tuesday
3. June CB Consumer Confidence data - Tuesday
4. June ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Wednesday
5. June Jobs Report - Thursday
6. US Markets Closed, Happy 4th of July! - Friday
We have a short but busy week ahead.
🚨 Heisenberg Observation
There are over 800 stocks with a $13B market cap or higher in the market.
There are only 3 names out of those 800+ that have a Daily RSI under 20:
$STRC
$NFLX
$BABA*
*currently at an all time low RSI in its history too.
Extrapolate how you see fit
$AMZN
FREE PUBLIC Trade ideas
Anytime AMZN drops below 28 forward PE I nibble
I just bought June 26 $245 calls and June 12 $240 calls
May GOD have mercy on my soul
Not financial advice!
⚠️ June will likely see a ton more volatility...and I really mean A TON! Most will react to this incorrectly.
You need to understand that the higher the VIX pops, the more violent the market drops, the better your returns are statistically.
Most don't even want to look at their portfolios on red days when in reality that is when you should be buying.
🚨 June volatility catalysts:
- CPI Jun 10
- SpaceX IPO Jun 12
- Kevin Warsh's first FOMC Jun 17
- Quad witching/OPEX Jun 19
- Removal of PDT rule (already occurred last week)
- $MU earnings Jun 24
- Potential US government partnership with AI companies (TBD)
- $AAPL AI announcement Jun 8
- June midterm seasonality
Stay the course! The AI buildout is a multiyear thesis. No, this is not the top.
The less you know why you're currently in the market, the less you should be actively participating.
Good luck to all the players.
software is PUMPING on a day where Anthropic announced their new fundraise AND put out a new model?
yeah this AI destroying software narrative might be done
we may have a bunch more stocks join the bull market !!!!
🚨 NEXT WEEK’S SCHEDULE IS INSANE FOR MARKETS
MONDAY → WARSH BECOMES NEW FED CHAIR
TUESDAY → U.S. CPI REPORT
WEDNESDAY → FOMC CHAIR SPEECH
THURSDAY → FED BALANCE SHEET
FRIDAY → TRUMP-XI MEETING
GET READY FOR THE MOST VOLATILE WEEK OF 2026!!