Humpy

[ChimpZoo @ThinkingBitmex]

Bitcoin broke $60k, and couldn't get any lower

Orderbooks are the most stacked I've ever seen them

The latent demand between 50-60k is absurd

We've clearly bottomed around here, and the next move will be to the upside

"Ultimately, we're all dead men. Sadly, we can not choose how. But, we can decide how we meet that end in order that we are remembered as men"

Long BTC as a man, or die as a coward

[Max Crypto @MaxCrypto]

Crypto prices since Trump took office:

$BTC: -44%
$ETH: -49%
$XRP: -68%
$SOL: -77%
$DOGE: -79%
$AVAX: -82%
$ADA: -85%
$SUI: -86%
$ENA: -92%
$APT: -93%
$TRUMP: -97.7%
$MELANIA: -99.5%

Thank you, Mr. President.

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

Stocks are crashing.

Crypto is dumping.

Gold and silver have erased hundreds of billions.

Here is exactly where all that money is flowing:

[DCF GOD @dcfgod]

Even the Coingecko ui doesn’t believe it 1,3,2

[koeppelmann @koeppelmann]

ETH still up from not even 13 month ago. 😅
People forget so quickly.

[Zach Rynes | CLG @ChainLinkGod]

Saylor needs just to rip off the bandaid and default on $STRC

He’ll never be able to raise capital again but he can retain his 4% of the $BTC supply forever

There’s no universe where the crypto market will stomach a real Strategy $BTC firesale to fund $STRC dividends

[Lookonchain @lookonchain]

As the market dropped:

Strategy is down $11.07B on $BTC;
Bitmine is down $9.58B on $ETH;
SharpLink is down $1.59B on $ETH;
Metaplanet is down $1.38B on $BTC;
Forward Industries is down $1.13B on $SOL;

[Pledditor @Pledditor]

Charles basically telling $ADA holders it's over...

[Cheshire Capital @Cheshire_Cap]

Saylor’s sell of 32 BTC yesterday is percolating through today with STRC depegging down to 96s. It is becoming more and more likely that STRC will not pull to par this month.

Saylor has backed himself into a corner. The sequencing of his actions has been, to say the least, incredibly suboptimal. He first established a ~22 month div reserve, only to deplete a quarter of it with further issuance. Note that he could've issued STRC responsibly, setting aside 1-2yrs of divs as he sold. Instead he aped the full raise qty into BTC. He then used another 2/3 of it to buyback converts, which were not even due this year or next, with no communication around topping the reserve back up.

The only "out" for his actions was that he was going to use this month's STRC issuance to replenish reserves, but that would be highly inconsistent with his previous behaviour.

Something needs to give here, whether it's the common, the prefs, or BTC. The longer run optimal choice for him is to give up on the prefs but I am not convinced he'll go that route just yet, hence the selloff in coins today.

STRC alone is 1.2bn of annual div obligations. While he could sell 1 large clip of BTC down to 60k and fund it for a year, if he believes he will get minimal issuance out of it for the next 1-2 years, then why would he bother? By the time the next bull market rolls around in, say, 3 years, the market will have forgotten and forgiven the transgression of a dividend pause.

Funding the reserve is only worth it to inspire confidence in the product insofar as his ability to extract dollars out of it, and it's clear the market thinks he's tapped now.

I think there's a >50% chance we see sub 60-70 in the product by September.

[Anthony Napolitano @iTzAnthonyNap]

Michael Saylor did something very strategic this morning.

Strategy sold roughly $2.5M worth of Bitcoin.

Why would the biggest Bitcoin bull sell any BTC?

Because he’s sending a message to STRC holders: the dividend comes first, and Strategy is willing to sell a tiny amount of Bitcoin if needed to meet its obligations.

That confidence makes the product more attractive. More demand for STRC = more capital raised. More capital raised = more Bitcoin purchased.

Selling a tiny amount today could help them acquire a lot more Bitcoin tomorrow.

Very strategic ⚡️

[Gabriel M Haines @gabrielhaines]

POV - your @saylor and you explain why you’re selling bitcoin

[WhalePanda @WhalePanda]

When Saylor buys $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, price doesn't move.

When Saylor sells $2.5 million worth of Bitcoin price dumps.

Lessons here.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨Michael Burry just said Elon Musk and Nvidia's deal is built on fake numbers.

Burry published a detailed breakdown calling the entire structure "Fugazi", his word for fake.

He is alleging that billions of dollars in Nvidia chips are being hidden off balance sheets, and that American retirees are unknowingly funding the whole thing.

Nvidia, the world's largest AI chip company sold $5.4 billion worth of its most advanced GPUs, the GB200, to a company called Valor.

Valor is not a real operating business. It is a special purpose vehicle, a shell company created specifically to hold these chips and nothing else. Nvidia also invested $1.9 billion of its own money directly into Valor on top of the sale.

Those 100,000+ chips are now physically inside xAI's data center. xAI is Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, the one that builds Grok. xAI is using every single one of those chips right now to run its AI models.

But here is what Burry is flagging.

Neither Nvidia nor xAI owns those chips on paper. Valor, the shell company holds legal title. That means $5.4 billion in GPU assets do not show up on Nvidia's balance sheet as inventory.

They do not show up on xAI's balance sheet as assets. They are legally invisible to both companies.

Nvidia gets to book the $5.4 billion as a completed sale and record it as revenue. xAI gets full use of the chips without owning them. And the risk disappears into a shell company in the middle.

Now here is where American retirees enter the picture.

Valor needed $3.5 billion in debt to fund this structure. Apollo provided it. Apollo is one of the largest asset managers on earth with $1.03 trillion under management and $834 billion specifically in private credit.

Apollo raised the $3.5 billion, packaged it into debt securities, and sold those securities to Athene.

Athene is Apollo's own insurance company. It sells fixed and indexed annuities, retirement savings products, to ordinary Americans.

When a retiree buys an Athene annuity, they believe their money is sitting in safe, stable investments. That money is now inside a structure funding Elon Musk's AI data center.

The numbers inside Athene are most alarming.

Athene holds $74.2 billion in reserves. It has moved $217 billion in assets into a captive insurer based in Bermuda, meaning those assets sit outside normal US insurance regulation and oversight.

Of the entire portfolio, 34.7%, equal to $103 billion, is classified as Level 3 assets.

Level 3 is an accounting classification that means there is no observable market price for these assets. No outside party can independently verify what they are actually worth.

The leverage sitting on top of those unpriced assets is 16 times.

Burry's says:
Every step of this structure is technically legal and publicly disclosed. But the entire thing was deliberately engineered across 8 to 12 steps to move credit risk off balance sheets and away from any market pricing.

- Nvidia books the revenue.
- Apollo collects the fees.
- xAI gets the computing power.
- And retirees sitting at the bottom of a 16x leveraged Bermuda insurance structure, holding $103 billion in assets with no market price carry the risk without knowing it exists.

[Bitcoin for Freedom @BTC_for_Freedom]

The greatest trick they pulled was convincing you that losing 7% of your purchasing power every year is normal and that the people running the printer are the ones who will save you.

[Ed Elson @edels0n]

I read all 277 pages of SpaceX's IPO filing so you don't have to.

Losses up 700%. Revenue decelerating. 107x price-to-sales multiple.

It's a trainwreck. Full breakdown below 👇

[cryptothedoggy @cryptothedoggy]

🚨OPENAI'S REVENUE IS FAKE, AMAZON'S PROFITS ARE FAKE, GOOGLE'S PROFITS ARE FAKE🚨

YOUR RETIREMENT FUND IS BUYING ALL OF IT AUTOMATICALLY AND IT'S 100% LEGAL.

Here is the trick nobody is talking about. 👇

Step 1: Tech giant "invests" billions into an AI startup

→ but it's not cash
→ it's cloud credits
→ forced to be spent back on the same tech giant's servers

Step 2: AI startup uses those credits to train models

→ money goes straight back to the tech giant
→ tech giant records it as brand new "cloud revenue"
→ from a paying customer
→ that customer is themselves

Step 3: Tech giant books paper profits

→ every time the startup raises at a higher valuation
→ the tech giant updates its investment value on its books
→ counts that unearned paper gain as real profit
→ without a single dollar changing hands

this is not a theory
this is documented

→ Microsoft invested $13B into OpenAI via cloud credits
→ OpenAI spent it training models on Microsoft servers
→ Microsoft recorded it as cloud revenue from a customer
→ OpenAI's cloud bill: $60B annually
→ OpenAI's actual revenue: $25B
→ the difference? recycled funding loop

→ Anthropic spent $2.66B on AWS in just 9 months
→ that was 100% of everything it earned at the time
→ Amazon then reported record $30.3B profit in Q1 2026
→ but $16.8B of it was just a paper markup on Anthropic's valuation
→ not real cash
→ not real profit

Amazon's free cash flow collapsed 95%

→ from billions to just $1.2B
→ because it spent $44.2B in real cash building data centers
→ record profits on paper
→ bleeding cash in reality

Alphabet reported $62.6B profit in Q1 2026

→ $28.7B of it nearly half was just a paper Anthropic markup
→ not earned
→ not real
→ just an accounting entry

the concentration risk is terrifying

→ Microsoft has 49% of its $627B future backlog tied to OpenAI
→ Oracle has 54% of its entire $553B pipeline tied to OpenAI alone
→ if OpenAI stumbles, the entire loop jams

we have seen this before

→ 2001 dot-com crash
→ Global Crossing and Qwest swapped identical fiber capacity
→ just to book fake sales
→ Qwest erased $1.4B in fake income
→ Global Crossing went bankrupt

the only difference?

→ those swaps were illegal
→ today's AI loop is fully legal under current accounting rules

your retirement fund is buying these stocks automatically

→ index funds
→ pension funds
→ 401Ks

all forced to buy more as stock prices inflate on paper

→ investments go up
→ sales go up
→ stock prices go up
→ all on paper
→ zero real cash profits

the $2 trillion AI boom

might be the most sophisticated legal accounting trick
in the history of financial markets

[Jim Stewartson, Decelerationist 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇺🇸 @jimstewartson]

This is collectively the largest financial iceberg ever put in front of the stock market. This is $5 trillion in TOTAL AIR.

These companies have never made a dime.

SpaceX is literally a government welfare project. OpenAI & Anthropic burn money in a furnace.

I see dead people.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MIGHT BE BUILT ON FAKE REVENUE.

Latest corporate filings show that OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up over half of the entire $2 trillion future cloud backlog held by Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon.

This massive pipeline is actually being created through a circular accounting trick called a round trip revenue loop.

But how it works ?

A tech giant gives billions of dollars to an AI startup as an "investment". But hidden in the contract is a strict rule forcing the startup to hand that exact same money straight back to the tech giant to rent their computer servers.

Look at the documented case of Microsoft and OpenAI.

When Microsoft invested $13 billion into OpenAI, it didn't just give them cash; it gave them "cloud credits" to use Microsoft servers. OpenAI used those exact credits to train its AI models, and Microsoft then turned around and recorded that server usage as brand new "cloud revenue" from a customer.

The tech giant is literally paying itself with its own money and calling it a sale.

This is why OpenAI’s annual cloud bill has ballooned to over $60 billion, double its actual revenue of $25 billion, kept alive solely by this recycled funding loop.

Anthropic runs the exact same play, spending $2.66 billion on Amazon Web Services in just nine months, which was basically 100% of all the money it earned at the time.

This manufactured demand triggers a second accounting trick where tech giants book massive paper profits. Every time a startup gets a higher value from a new funding round, the tech giant updates the value of its investment on its books and counts that unearned paper gain as direct profit.

In Q1 2026, Alphabet reported a record $62.6 billion profit, but $28.7 billion nearly half, was just a paper markup on its Anthropic investment. In the same quarter, Amazon reported $30.3 billion in profit, but $16.8 billion of it was just an Anthropic paper gain.

While Amazon reported record profits, its actual free cash flow collapsed 95% to just $1.2 billion because it had to spend $44.2 billion in real cash to build physical data centers.

This has created a massive danger where these giant companies rely heavily on just one or two unstable startups. Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion future backlog tied to OpenAI, while Oracle has an incredible 54% of its entire $553 billion pipeline relying on OpenAI alone.

This perfectly mirrors the 2001 dot-com crash when Global Crossing and Qwest Communications swapped identical fiber-optic network capacity with each other just to book fake sales.

Qwest had to erase $1.4 billion in fake income, and Global Crossing went completely bankrupt.

The only difference is that the dot-com swaps were illegal, but today's AI loop is fully legal under current accounting rules.

This legal loop inflates tech company stock prices, forcing automatic retirement accounts and index funds to buy even more of these tech stocks. It is a self feeding loop where investments, sales, and stock prices all go up on paper without the AI technology ever making real cash profits.

[Bitcoin for Freedom @BTC_for_Freedom]

The scariest part of the broken money system isn’t the inflation. It’s that most people will work their entire lives inside it, never understanding why they can’t get ahead, and blame themselves.

[Jameson Lopp @lopp]

I can NOT overemphasize this enough:

DO NOT TRUST EMAILS
DO NOT TRUST PHONE CALLS
DO NOT TRUST SMS MESSAGES
DO NOT TRUST CHAT MESSAGES
DO NOT TRUST INCOMING COMMUNICATIONS!

Any message saying there is a security problem with an account that needs to be urgently fixed is a 🚩