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My notes from Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom of Charlie Munger turned into maxims:
1. Find a simple idea and take it seriously.
2. Good ideas are rare. When you find one bet heavily.
3. Humans have been writing down their best ideas for 5,000 years. Read them.
4. Avoiding stupid mistakes is more important than being smart.
5. Don’t work with anyone you don’t admire.
6. Don’t sell anything you wouldn’t buy.
7. Avoiding a bad habit is easier than breaking a bad habit.
8. Work on your best idea. Don't diversify
9. Incentives rule everything around you. Look for them.
10. Great businesses are built by going ridiculously far in maximizing or minimizing one or a few things. Think Costco.
11. Learning is changing behavior.
12. Do the unpleasant tasks first.
13. Charlie has read hundreds of biographies. Do the same.
14. Stop multitasking. Concentrate.
15. Many hard problems are solved best when approached backwards.
16. Think of ideas as tools. When a better tool comes along use it.
17. Clip your business and personal expenses. Small leaks sink big ships.
18. Make friends with smart dead people. Adam Smith, Darwin, Cicero, Ben Franklin —whoever interests you. Read their writing. Steal their ideas. They don’t need them anymore.
19. Don't confuse intelligence with invincibility.
20. Bad things will happen to you. It’s inevitable. When they do get up and keep going and remember the next maxim.
21. Self pity has no utility.
22. Find out what you are best at. Then pound away at it. Forever.
23. Only plays games where you have an edge.
24. Avoid mob rule. Avoid demagogues. Avoid dogma. Avoid bureaucracy.
25. Optimize for independence.
25. Use money to buy freedom.
26. Develop durability.
27. What do you have an *intense* interest in? Do that for money.
28. Self improvement has no end.
@SantiagoAuFund That wasn’t the question. I think US holds power over USD exchange rate. Why / when do they want it up va down? Feels like this would be a time to add geopolitical pressure with dollar up, but the opposite is happening
@KeithMcCullough Keith, what do I subscribe to in order to get these trades? Your website has too many options and I have a full time job. I just need the triggers to place 15% of my portfolio to your recommendations. Is it the signals subscription or do I need something else?
My Venezuela experience as head of trading in the region for Cargill.
Cargill was/is the leading producer of critical staple ingredients such as flour, pasta, vegetable oil, and rice in VZ. I am not saying I agree with grabbing the dictator, but I did have a front row seat to the damage a kleptocracy did to innocent people.
1. The government took over our "minute rice" facility at gunpoint because we were "gouging" the nation's poor. The government was never able to run the plant. It never ran again. It was returned years later with no equipment inside
2. There are 1000's of generals in the army. They are each given a slice of the economy to loot. The large number of generals made it difficult to organize a coup against the regime.
3. The government opened grocery stores and sold staples below the cost we sold them to the government. In theory they used petro oil money to lower grocery prices. Our regular grocery outlets were forced out of business. When the government demanded we sell them products below cost we simply had to shut down. The populous became ever more dependent on the government handouts. (PS this is the mayor of New York City's proposal.
4. Dollars- We needed dollars to go buy raw materials like wheat from places like the US and Canada. The government would periodically allocate us some dollars that could only be spent for raw materials and freight. Eventually only the local companies that can and would pay bribes got dollar allocations. We had several facilities closed for lack of raw material
5. My employees liked working for Cargill. The office was an armed compound with access to a gym, high speed internet, global communications, and a weekly box of basic staples. Cargill provided a safe and secure environment if only for the working hours.
6. Employees became very close to others inside the apartment building. Going out on the street with a desperate population was not advisable.
7. I needed wood pallets for feed. We tried to export wood pallets to swap for grain. We refused to pay the bribes it would take to export the pallets
8. I once tried to set up a closed loop wheat planting to flour mill supply chain. A. They came and stole all the seed wheat for food. When we tried to ship in seed wheat in containers via US donors there was no way to get it out of the port without it being stolen
9. Livestock- Our feed business completely collapsed. Even if you could raise a pig, you couldn't defend it from being stolen. People with guns were hungry.
10. Employees- In the end my highly skilled team alone with other highly educated people chose to leave. Cargill often found jobs for them in other Latin countries. The regime was more than happy to see the well-educated leave the country. Setting these employees up with high quality stable jobs after fleeing remains one of the best things I ever did in my career. No one remembers millions in trading earnings.
This is a short list. In my opinion the first money spent needs to happen now and it needs to be food. The US is already on the clock. The current regime does not care if it starves the population. The orgy of theft will actually accelerate if they believe their days are numbered. VZ should be an outstanding customer of US grown ag products. Rice, bread wheat, veg oil ect. Feed the people first.
Jeff Kazin
Former head trading Cargill
The only reason the Rules Based Order mattered in the first place was because the U.S. wrote it and the U.S. enforced it.
And the reason it no longer matters is because the U.S. is the one tearing it down.
To those appealing to international law…who exactly are you appealing to?
@cboyack And then some idiot on X claims that there was no due process to capture the abusive guy who’s been violating humans rights in every way possible for years. Come on man, grow a pair of brain cells or shut up
@cboyack Best way to describe this: A house where there’s abuse from the head of household. The kids and neighbors call 911 and no one comes to help for years. Murders happen. Child abuse happens. Rape happens. Then a guy from another town sends private security and captures the bully.
@cboyack “Maduro is bad (he obviously is). The question is whether we are governed by law or by appetite.”…. Sir, Maduro is the unlawful president here. There was no due process for him so stay in power. We needed an international organization to stop him. Thanks Trump!
@ErikSTownsend If OAS does nothing, and no other international organization respects human rights of Bolivian and Venezuelan citizens, who shall bring peace and fairness to us?
Trump did the right thing, I hope this continues for other illegally governed countries like Nicaragua.
@ErikSTownsend Wrong again. Every Bolivian prayed for years that the US would do something to take unconstitutional al president Evo Morales out (yes, I’m Bolivian), he was in power for 20 years with rigged elections and changing the constitution to be re-elected múltiple times…..