Tilted Table

Teaching you how to be +EV. I don't work in a discord, but I'm in a bunch! Bet with me in the BetRecaps community!

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

OK as promised, here are some paid discords I'm in. I use them data, pings, and plays. I also have my own bots (separate topic).

If you want an affiliate link to support me with like 3 bucks referral dm me, I don't work in any of them.

[1/n]

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

https://t.co/UJH9c58yOB

Carnegie mellon potentially teaching a sports betting statistics class.

If you were a professor teaching sports betting, what are some topics you think more people should learn?

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

I haven't posted a bet in a minute because I feel like all my followers joined all the good discords I recommended and there's not much value in posting bets. One I didn't see from a cord

Pistons series:

Fanduel is 570/-820
Circa is 455/-600

Taking some FD to circa

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

In honor of 538 being killed off, an old statistical analysis of their results shows they were really just a big brand, and not all when it came to modelling.

https://t.co/4XZKwxe4tK

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@EV_Mobley Always the hard part

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

Intermittent stock market question...

Is there any reason the stock market hasn't tanked way further than it has? Tariffs, retaliatory tariffs from china, Elon saying we have to take the pain, etc.

I'm normally a buy and HODL guy but tell me why I should keep holding.

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@EV_Mobley I feel like he kinda gave the game away by saying and implying over and over that it's not his economy for the first 6-12 months, so to me it sounds like he'll enjoy it collapsing and then taking credit for the improvement headed into midterms.

[EVBetsMA @EVBetsMA]

Hey ⁦@DraftKings⁩ that’s not how O/U works.

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@DoctorG0lf Never joined your cord, so I can't speak to it. No argument, just wanted to know the truth.

You build your own MLB models then?

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@DoctorG0lf is sharp and have followed his page for a while.

Dude clearly makes money and has a solid track record through pikkit.

I hope he either credits the models he's using or shows some proof of his own models. Using models for paid discords often has legal asterisks.

[Bonesaw @BillyBonesaw]

Woke up to @DoctorG0lf denying the accusation that he rips off popular models (batx) to sell them to his discord.

The point of this thread is not to dispute that he is a winning bettor, but to show he is not being truthful.

Below are numerous occasions in which he posted overnight strikeout props shortly after Batx released their projections with time stamps and proof of batx projections (i have a back log)⬇️

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@EVBonesaw @DoctorG0lf I think @DMProps had a thread on this a while ago, so shout out to him too.

I tend to avoid "drama" and use my platform to educate but selling someone else's work and calling it your own feels weird.

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@gambleshouse Have a good night lmao

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

Average gambler on twitter.

If each leg is -EV (just picking random teams or not +EV legs), parlays increase hold with each leg.

Also, spoiler alert, most retail books short-pay on SGPs pretty aggressively, so this is *usually* even worse for SGPs.

[GAMBLE @gambleshouse]

@ButlerBets Parlays don’t increase the hold, unless they’re intentionally short paying you which most retail books aren’t.

They increase betting volume.

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@gambleshouse Have a good night lmao

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@gambleshouse

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@gambleshouse I don't want your money or the hassle.

Every single resource you can find on the topic from people who have done the math, both analytically and via simulation come to the same conclusion.

https://t.co/HkMlxYOyXY

Just learn dude!

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@gambleshouse lmao

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@gambleshouse Yes but your payout over time is also held more. The hold from each leg compounds as you add more legs. You're just handwaving away the actual critical parts of the math dude!

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@gambleshouse Bro your class is 5 youtube videos with AI generated thumbnails and half of them are like 3 minutes long. You keep avoiding answering my question or any of the other commenters saying you're wrong, so I'm gonna end this chat here lol.

Have a good night man.

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@gambleshouse https://t.co/xz0Hthb9Ug

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@gambleshouse Can you refute my math? Genuinely. If you're right, I'll publicly apologize.

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

That settles it.

Imagine paying for a sports betting masterclass for this dude to tell you THAT NORMAL PARLAYS DON'T INCREASE HOLD.

Man I'll tell you free, they do. Save your money, go pay for any of the dozen discords I don't work in but have publicly endorsed.

[GAMBLE @gambleshouse]

@tltdtable You’re adding two independent bets together to double the hold.

Mathematically that’s incorrect.

If you make 2 straight bets, did you bet into a 9% hold or did you bet into a 4.5% hold twice?

(Yes these are different things)

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@gambleshouse Can you refute my math? Genuinely. If you're right, I'll publicly apologize.

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@gambleshouse https://t.co/4GJ5jqHIMO

Man just read the math and learn from it lol

[Tilted Table @tltdtable]

@gambleshouse Theoretical settlements of earlier legs in a parlay is certainly a bizarre and complicated way to do it.

-110+-110 parlayed is +264. Fair is +300. If you bet 100$, you win 264 and lose 300 on avg. -36$/400$ is 9%.

The book has a 9% hold on a 2 leg parlay.