NEW: US Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow suggests that Russia may be preparing to conduct an act of aggression against a NATO member in the relatively near term to invalidate NATO’s Article 5. A near-term Russian attack is highly unlikely to involve a full-scale conventional invasion of a NATO state.
The nature of the Russian threat that the US is reportedly attempting to deter in 2026 is significantly different from the threat of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late 2021.
The Kremlin continues to deflect Western concerns and deny any intention of conducting aggression against NATO, but these statements are part of a larger effort to create ambiguity and to degrade the alliance’s resolve to counter Russian threats.
Baltic state officials and government-affiliated analysts emphasized that NATO should take the Russian threat seriously but that their immediate threat assessment has not changed.
Russia may conduct air, missile, or drone strikes or a limited incursion against one or more Baltic states to test and seek to break NATO’s resolve to invoke and respond under Article 5.
Several unidentified drones entered Moldovan airspace on the night of August 26 to 27, demonstrating that the Kremlin continues to accept the risk that Russia’s war against Ukraine can cause damage to other states, including Moldova and NATO states bordering Ukraine.
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Japan is geographically distant from Ukraine, but we are very close in terms of our values, shared principles, and our common understanding of how important freedom and independence are. Thank you, Prime Minister @takaichi_sanae, for your congratulations on the 35th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence.
We are constantly working to strengthen the defense of both our peoples and our regions. Russia’s cooperation with North Korea is truly dangerous for everyone in Asia as well. In light of all this, we highly value your messages about the importance of strengthening sanctions against Russia and increasing support for our country and our people. Thank you for speaking so warmly about the Ukrainian people and for always recognizing the courage of Ukrainians. Thank you, Japan!
For the first time in its history, Russia cannot wage war without reinforcements from North Korea. It is now preparing to deploy an additional North Korean contingent on its territory. It has also received additional ballistic missiles from North Korea. Everyone around the world must understand what this means.
This is not only about the lives of people in Ukraine, and not only about the threats we face. North Korea’s ballistic missiles and other weapons are being improved through its collaboration with Russia. The more North Korean strikes there are here in Ukraine, in Europe, the more their missiles and soldiers are used, the more they correct their shortcomings and blind spots, the greater the danger will later be for Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, and other countries in the region.
That is why, when we speak about the need for joint action, for coordination and mutual support, when we speak about the need to help us strengthen our air defense, we are also, in fact, speaking about taking away North Korea’s appetite and any interest in coming here – to our land and into our skies – with its weapons in order to learn how to wage war. Everyone across the globe who respects human life must stand together in taking action to protect people.
From the evening address.
Hey @GretaThunberg on behalf of all of the fallen Ukrainian soldiers, murdered Ukrainian children and Ukrainians suffering because of russia every day - fuck you.