tobes

patience

[tobes @tobesbtc]

Rejected on the weekly close

[tobes @tobesbtc]

i am not gonna lie its not looking good brev.

failed to break above the 50 week moving average.

all eyes on the monthly close.

Was this all a fakeout and we go lower?

[tobes @tobesbtc]

i am not gonna lie its not looking good brev.

failed to break above the 50 week moving average.

all eyes on the monthly close.

Was this all a fakeout and we go lower?

[profit | eca.eth @FlippingProfits]

ye this shi just getting started

[tobes @tobesbtc]

RSI has come back to its ascending trendline after the intra day dip below. The daily candle is still open, so the reclaim is unconfirmed for the next two hours.

My expectation is that a daily close above the line keeps the RSI higher-low structure intact. If anything, this third point of contact is bullish until we get a clear break of that structure. 60-70 rsi next?

[tobes @tobesbtc]

BTC Weekly candle has closed below $66k (currently $63.4k) and broken the rsi trendline thats been up only since June 6th.

While I don’t think this is going to lead into any dramatic pullback in price I do think theres room for lower prices

Imo the next couple months is just going to be meaningless chop and oscillation

[tobes @tobesbtc]

BTC Weekly candle has closed below $66k (currently $63.4k) and broken the rsi trendline thats been up only since June 6th.

While I don’t think this is going to lead into any dramatic pullback in price I do think theres room for lower prices

Imo the next couple months is just going to be meaningless chop and oscillation

[tobes @tobesbtc]

BTC has so far rejected off $66k.

The recovery from $58k has been pretty slow and constructive. We swept the June low and reclaimed it and so far daily RSI has held its uptrend off the oversold low and is back above 50.

We need to watch where this weekly candle closes

Break and hold $66k and the trendline is the next test. Reject here and I want to see a higher low form above $60k.

[tobes @tobesbtc]

BTC has so far rejected off $66k.

The recovery from $58k has been pretty slow and constructive. We swept the June low and reclaimed it and so far daily RSI has held its uptrend off the oversold low and is back above 50.

We need to watch where this weekly candle closes

Break and hold $66k and the trendline is the next test. Reject here and I want to see a higher low form above $60k.

[tobes @tobesbtc]

$BTC

If we go back to the 60k region it's most likely going to mark a third point of contact on the daily RSI uptrend line, and a second point of contact along the price uptrend line (not validated yet as we haven't had the second point of contact to confirm direction, which is why it's dotted blue).

From there we see a positive continuation of price into August and maybe September, marking the final counter trend rally that leads into the October low.

I say "maybe September" cause September could just be a month of low volume and small trading ranges, leading into a price capitulation lower in October.

My thoughts anyways

[Fav @Favwontmiss]

Being neurodivergent is noticing patterns early, warning people, being ignored, then watching exactly what you predicted happen months later. By then, everyone acts like it was obvious all along, and nobody remembers you called it first. It’s a uniquely frustrating experience.

[tobes @tobesbtc]

We're saying the same thing then, that's the whole post. Below par they can't raise, so they keep selling btc. And the reset works against them, STRC's rate goes up while it trades under $100 (11.5% to 12% on 1 Jul), every 0.25% is another ~$26m a year on $10.5bn, so the longer this drags on the more they are going to pay. Also STRC is a preferred not a debt instrument

[tobes @tobesbtc]

Everybody is wrong about Strategy $MSTR. There is a ~10% chance they default in the next 3 years, but I will acknowledge the chance the stock still drops another 70%+ from here is ~52%. This doesn't mean a drop is guaranteed, we could actually see the opposite, but there are so many factors, like how long btc spends under their cost basis, that play into this.

If you are wondering where I got that data from, I got it from their SEC filings, I gave it to Claude and calculated what they owe against what they can pay.

From my findings the debt isn't the problem, the preferred shares are. Preferred shares are basically a bond that never gets repaid, they pay a fixed dividend instead of interest. And skipping that dividend isn't a default, the company can just pause it. They stacked $15.5bn of them on top of $6.7bn of convertible bonds, and the preferreds cost ~$1.73bn a year in dividends forever. The debt itself is nearly interest free and nobody can demand repayment until 1 Mar 2028, when $2bn of it can be handed back and you have to wonder, what is the price of BTC going to be in 20 months? will the price still be below their $75k cost basis? Highly unlikely in my opinion but worrying too much about predicting the future is a fools game.

They hold 843,775 BTC at a $75,476 average. That's $63.7bn spent for bitcoin holdings worth ~$54bn at spot, roughly a $10bn unrealized loss. But none of it is collateral. They have no margin loans, no credit lines, and no fine print that can force a sale. Nothing in the structure can liquidate them and if they sold their btc, it could cover the $6.7bn of converts 8.1x over.

Their cash reserve was $2.55bn on 28 Jun. That covers the ~$1.73bn a year of preferred dividends plus ~$35m of interest on the converts, ~$147m a month all-in. So 17.3 months of runway, 25.9 if you count the $1.25bn of btc sales the board approved on 29 Jun. And they can rebuild it fast, the same reserve was $871m on 25 May and they refilled it in five weeks off the share ATM and btc sales (atm means at the market, basically a standing program that lets a company sell new shares directly into the open market).

They've already started selling. 3,588 btc sold for ~$216m over 29 Jun-5 Jul at around $60k average, that went straight to their dividends. Selling under their $75,476 cost means every sale books a loss, so no tax on the way out.

The way this plays out is probably boring but everything rests on one price, their $75,476 cost basis. While BTC sits under that, the stock trades for less than the coins they hold (basic mNAV is 0.64x right now). And when the stock is worth less than the btc they hold, selling new shares raises less cash than the btc behind them, so raising money just screws shareholders. That option is off the table while price is <1mNAV. The only cash left is the bitcoin, so they sell every month until the Mar-Jun 2028 wall, that's when bondholders can hand back $3.5bn and demand cash. If something breaks before then it's a pause on the preferred dividends, ~28% chance by 2029. Actual bankruptcy FTX style is the long shot.

And circling back, all of it leans on the same assumption. The dividend pause only happens if BTC stays below cost with the raise windows shut for 18+ straight months. So the entire bear case boils down to one question. What's the chance BTC stays under $76k for the next two years?

Even the bond market isn't panicking. Strategy bought back $1.5bn of the 2029 converts in May at only 8% below face value. If default was close that discount would've been way bigger.

Watch mNAV vs 1.0x, it's ~1.04x once you count the debt and preferreds. Hold above ~1.1-1.2x with STRC back near $100 and the whole bear case is dead. Q2 filing lands ~4 Aug.

[tobes @tobesbtc]

Both numbers are right, mine is par (the company's own enterprise definition), yours is marked to market. The dividends accrue on par though, so the bill doesn't get $2.85bn lighter unless they buy the paper back below it, which is what the $1bn repurchase authority is for. Also 0.96x makes my case better than 1.04x does, below 1.0x means both raise windows are shut and the forced selling continues

[tobes @tobesbtc]

Honest thoughts, they're quite healthy, the weird financial products like STRC are the only products I'd cut, just stick to the core btc strategy. They're positioned well for btc and I think btc keeps appreciating over the coming years, that'll dwarf any of the current bearish sentiment.

[tobes @tobesbtc]

I couldn't include everything so if you want my full analysis (I structured it into a doc with Claude) you can read it here for free, although I would recommend uploading it to an ai model and asking questions, there is a lot of information:

https://t.co/9ZC32VJ2ec

[𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 @nobrainflip]

it’s really that simple.

[tobes @tobesbtc]

Didn’t quite retest the 200D SMA. Expect volatile price action and lower lows for the next 8-10 months.

Look forward to q4.

It’s going to be a choppy year boys.

[tobes @tobesbtc]

What kind of luck is this lol

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Pakistan's Prime Minister announces US and Iran have reached a peace deal.

Signing ceremony is set for June 19th in Switzerland.

[tobes @tobesbtc]

Sunday will most likely close a couple hundred negative but this has been a pb week for me. +$4.7k usd

[tobes @tobesbtc]

"Drop me smokes for mid"

[tobes @tobesbtc]

nice