Toby Crabel

Institutional short-term trader.
Research • patterns • risk.
Founder of Crabel Capital Management.

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

After decades building a multi-billion dollar systematic trading firm, I’ve decided to share selected short-term research publicly.
Institutional frameworks.
Pattern durability.
Risk structure.
Notes here: https://t.co/XemCBLZPl8

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

https://t.co/iEEd4up9LT

[AlgoAdvantage | Simon @algo_advantage]

Toby Crabel — founder of Crabel Capital Management (~$5B AUM) and author of the legendary Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Intraday Breakouts (1990), the book that gave the world the opening range breakout and NR4/NR7 patterns — joins the show for a rare, wide-ranging conversation.
Toby traces his path from a pro tennis career to the Chicago trading floors, his formative stints with Victor Niederhoffer and his early connections to Monroe Trout and Paul Tudor Jones, and how zero-commission floor trading shaped his short-term edge from day one.
He unpacks why the "clean open" that powered ORB for decades has eroded under 24-hour markets and institutional flow, why studying historical price shocks (1987, COVID) is non-negotiable for systematic survival, and why PhDs and machine learning are no substitute for a causal, market-structure-driven research process.
For the solo systematic trader, Toby's advice is refreshingly practical: start with one market, build strict rules around a single idea, and know exactly when your edge has died. A must-watch for anyone serious about the history, robustness, and future of short-term systematic trading.
https://t.co/77aItLYkwr

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

@GoshawkTrades Good on you for actually testing it. We've run it back to 1923, edge's thinner now but still there. Happy to sit down and talk it through on your channel sometime. Working on a few books coming that get into it.

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

Full write-up here:
https://t.co/9xYNuriUIj

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

Re-accumulation + Spring in silver (May 2024).
A pattern without the context of the market cycle isn’t enough.

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

Managed Futures Pinnacle Awards From a few years back.

The focus has always been on process and consistency.

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

Enjoyed speaking at Battle of the Quants yesterday. Good group of people focused on the work — testing ideas, figuring out what holds up and what doesn’t. Thanks to the Battle of the Quants team, and especially Bartt.

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

Markets evolve and edges fade. The advantage comes from adapting the framework, not abandoning it.

Full note here: https://t.co/qRyEsSy9mi

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

The Opening Range Breakout still works.
Just not the way most people think.

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

The edge has changed as markets moved from a single open to nearly continuous trading.

The idea was never just the breakout, it was understanding when markets transition from mean reversion to momentum.

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

https://t.co/9Y8AbClQNV

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

Short note here: https://t.co/m94srgNiYN

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

A long base is often only understood in hindsight.
What looks like sideways structure becomes accumulation once the market transitions into force.

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

Short note here: https://t.co/FurYuw9vHq

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

Activity expanded at the lows here, with volume and volatility increasing as price moved through the range.
When behavior changes at extremes, it often reflects imbalance rather than continuation.

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

https://t.co/FIE1CrXRFe

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

The second break below the prior day’s low produced a relative volume spike. When a move like that cannot extend lower, it often reflects absorption.

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

Short note on this here:
https://t.co/nhYLbGm3LG

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

Large markets often require multiple shakeouts before they can move higher.
Most of the activity here occurred below the prior day’s low, with volume expanding into the weakness.

[Toby Crabel @TobyCrabel]

7 days of higher lows, then a low penetration that gave two long opportunities. The second one led to new highs.
https://t.co/a8Tj1iNdGl