Todd Little

Oil and Gas Software Executive

[Todd Little @toddelittle]

@mattbarcomb Yes. Even if they don’t have their own specific data there is always some reference data that can help. I find industry reference data quite useful for making sure the confidence interval is realistic. As you saw from HTMA people are hugely overconfident.

[Todd Little @toddelittle]

@mattbarcomb What I’m trying to understand is what you find as a typical ratio between the high and the low.

[Todd Little @toddelittle]

@mattbarcomb Totally agree, although would add that all decisions are made under uncertainty and that many organizations and individuals are very poor at understanding the reality of the inherent uncertainty.

[Todd Little @toddelittle]

@mattbarcomb Or I’ll also take the average of the range ratio.

[Todd Little @toddelittle]

@mattbarcomb If you have highs and lows you have ranges. If you have more than one time on a new instance you have multiple ranges which can give a range of ranges.

[Todd Little @toddelittle]

@jasonh2374 @TotherAlistair We had some fun going down memory lane.

[Todd Little @toddelittle]

@allenholub If story points are done right (as originally suggested in XP) it is possible to do math on the numbers and not commit any mathematical fallacies. However, that does not mean that the results are meaningful.

[Todd Little @toddelittle]

@johncutlefish Fourqued up.

[Todd Little @toddelittle]

@johncutlefish They each have different feedback loops (or lack of)

[Todd Little @toddelittle]

@duarte_vasco I see this all the time. "We have to do this project because it aligns with our strategy." Aligning with a strategy is a bucket. Lots of things align with a strategy, but that doesn't make it "strategic." Make sure you use your strategy as a filter, not a bucket.

[Vasco Duarte @duarte_vasco]

I once heard this from @toddelittle in this form: "strategy is a filter. Problem is, most people think it is a bucket" (where everything fits until it overflows)

[LitheSpeed @lithespeed]

Watch this video to learn how, with Joey Spooner @spoonstein and Todd Little @toddelittle of Kanban University.

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[Todd Little @toddelittle]

@PeterKretzman @Daniil_B_1993 @duarte_vasco It entirely depends on what you are trying to predict and what predictability means in that context.