Todd Salamone

Senior V.P. Research, Schaeffer's Investment Research.

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

$SPX 6 978.40 is 10% above 3/30 closing low…also the area from which short-term pivots to downside occurred in mid-January and in mid-February. More sideline $ and short-covering potential now relative to early’26 but still an important area for those looking to de-risk

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

$SPX levels that are important overhead: 6,780 - the Jan-midden lows…6,815, site of 80-dayMA that was supportive Nov-Feb. And 6,845 - the ‘25 close.

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

The $SPX’s month-end close above its 12-month (one-year) moving average is encouraging for bulls with some sentiment measures nearing extremes in pessimism after an inta-month move below this long-term trendline.

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

$SPX 80-day moving average back in play. Marked low on 1/20/26. Only once close below it since May'25.

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

$SPX gap lower has pushed it into vicinity of its '25 close in the 6,845 area.

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

Big surge in short interest on $SPX components last report. Highly shorted market in an uptrend has been an underlying bullish theme for the past two years (SPX component short interest at multi-year highs amid SPX all-time highs)

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

$SPX (post $NVDA earnings-driven pop) now battling to push above its 30-day moving average - support on multiple pullbacks since April low - and 6,760, which is 10 percent above the prior all-time high in February '25 and where index incurred resistance in Sept. & Oct.

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

Another increase in $SPX component short interest, which grew 3% in the last report ending 9/15/25 to another multi-year high. And some say euphoria in the market? If anything, SPX should be higher if not for the persistent growth in short interest.

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

The $SPX's 30-day moving average proved its relevance again on 9/2 with the open and close above it. Also, like the first trading day in August, SPX gapped lower (August gap lower was immediately bought).

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

$SPX's 30-day moving average, which has had importance as discussed in my weekly commentaries, marked the low in Wednesday's (8/20/25) session https://t.co/yvkuFv0A4J

[Schaeffer's Investment Research @schaeffers]

Stock Market 'Euphoria:' Our Contrarian Rebuttal (c/o @toddsalamone) $BTC $VIX $SPY $SPX
https://t.co/t6SnNfNEjS

[Schaeffer's Investment Research @schaeffers]

Short Interest on $SPX Stocks is +18.71% YoY:

[Schaeffer's Investment Research @schaeffers]

Amid Tariff Uncertainty, Key In on $SPX Price Action (C/O @toddsalamone)
https://t.co/1M8MqUdvze

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

With equity futures lower on tariff headlines, levels for Friday to watch on $SPX include: 1) Election Day close at 5,782 and 2) 200day moving average at 5,770

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

$SPX bullish outside day today with low 1% below Friday's close - the 2nd time since 4/30/25 a bullish outside day occurred with the low at least 1.0% below prior trading day's close. This was our research after the 4/30 bullish outside day candle.

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

First $SPX close above its yearend 2024 close since February 28.

[Schaeffer's Investment Research @schaeffers]

As @toddsalamone said on Monday heading into this week:

Potential $SPX resistance resides between 5,740 – its 12-month moving average – and 5,783, the Election Day close in November 2024

200-day MA at 5,745 is sitting nearer the lower boundary of this range

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

$SPX bullish outside day candle yesterday. Quantified historical data when this occurs since 2010 when low is AT LEAST one percent below prior day's close, which occurred yesterday.

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

$VIX 30.00 is one-half the 4/7/25 peak. Support around this level the past few days. $SPX

[Todd Salamone @toddsalamone]

$VIX at previous highs in the 28 area that have marked peaks since December'24... $SPX low (so far today) is just above the early-September closing low that preceded a multi-month rally