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[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

Day 445 of the $ETH bear market, and it's the shallowest of the three big ones so far.

I lined up the three big ETH bear markets by days since each all-time high. Here's where each one stood on day 445:

2018 bear: −88% ($161)
2022 bear: −67% ($1,598)
Now: −57% (about $2,090)

2018 cycle
Top: $1,386 on Jan 13, 2018
Bottom: $83, down 94%, 335 days later
New high: day 1,107

2022 cycle
Top: $4,812 on Nov 8, 2021
Bottom: $994, down 79%, 222 days later
New high: day 1,383

This cycle
Top: $4,831 on Aug 22, 2025
Lowest so far: $1,565, down 68%, on June 25, 2026 (day 307)
Today: up 34% from that low

What I take from it:

1. The damage is real but smaller. A 68% drop hurts. It's still the mildest of the three big bears.

2. Time is the real price of admission. The last two took 3 to nearly 4 years to reclaim the top. If this one rhymes, a new high lands somewhere around Sept 2028 to June 2029. That's a pattern, not a promise.

3. Know the limits. Two past cycles is a tiny sample, and a shallower bear doesn't prove the bottom is in. A lower low is still possible, which is exactly why my buy levels sit at $1,900, $1,800 and $1,700.

The long-term case hasn't changed for me. The calendar is what tests your conviction.

Save this for the next time someone tells you ETH is finished.

Where do you think this one ends: a faster recovery because it's shallower, or a longer grind? Tell me below.

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@balance0014 @ethlabs_org For sure a good thing to prepare for

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

Old belief: Ethereum goes post-quantum around 2028, and faster slots arrive in the next fork (Hegotá).

New proposal from @ethlabs_org today: make Ethereum post-quantum AND "post-AI" in 2027. Quick slots get pulled from Hegotá to make room.

Why they say now:
• Quantum deadlines keep moving up (they cite the US gov going 2035 → 2030, Google by 2029)
• AI is finding software bugs at scale
• Pivoting now is cheaper than mid-fork

Glamsterdam still ships as planned. This is input to core devs, not a decision yet.

Speed traded for security. For a store of value, that's the right trade.

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@Sensei_HG I prefer a strong BTC and even stronger ETH

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

Every $ETH / $BTC cycle top has been lower than the last: 0.150 (2017), 0.088 (2021), 0.042 (2025).

Yesterday it closed at 0.0278.

Repeat the last two drops (−41%, −52%) and the next top lands at 0.020–0.025, below where it trades now.

What breaks the pattern this time: real ETH demand, or just a weaker Bitcoin?

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@DumbBullCapital Seems to be 👀

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

The last 5 weeks have been red for $ETH, and Thursday has been the worst day on average.

We lose the $2,000 support level soon, don’t we?

Maybe tomorrow 🔮

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@ElderMalan Oops 😅 maybe it’ll hold up

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@TherealAD45 @ethlabs_org One day when it matters they will care…

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@IamMysticc I’m not so sure…

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@valerielwl I suspect we will but let’s wait and see

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@0xcyp Don't let her pull up the actual chart. Nov 11, 2021: ETH closed ~$4,722 on Coinbase. Today: ~$2,044.

"Same price" is the generous version 😅

Store of value is something ETH has to earn over the next five years. The last five didn't prove it.

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@Jeremybtc The leather jacket is irresistible it’s not his fault…

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@InvestwithDoc Not what I expected to cause the Q4 crash… 😂
Buying opportunity soon or is $NVDA going downhill?

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@bmnrtrust Stocks go down crypto goes down harder buckle up 😅

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@valerielwl @0xSweep Yes that’s how you make more money.

By buying more in times of fear when prices are at or below your buy targets.

There’s nothing wrong with just holding though we should see a recovery next year.

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@mitansh_j07 @ethlabs_org The sooner the better for post quantum and AI in my opinion.

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@Shinobicryp The bear case for ETH/BTC 😅

Definitely not my base case

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@DocGetgood @trader_koala Solid plan! And I think it will work

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@valerielwl @0xSweep Means you could soon have another opportunity to buy more in that range

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@NgocMy18x @ethlabs_org PQ/AI security is an urgent focus I agree on that.

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@valerielwl @0xSweep The bear market isn’t over yet