The current geopolitical moment is often compared to Chamberlain’s betrayal of Czechoslovakia in 1938. But there is another point in history that could be used as an example equally well.
In 1944, Stalin, sensing victory approaching, demanded that part of Poland be recognised by the Allies as part of the Soviet Union. Instead of rejecting the demands, the Allies ultimately put pressure on the Poles to accept Stalin’s redrawn borders. Sounds familiar.
When Polish Prime Minister Mikołajczyk refused to accept the ultimatum, Churchill exploded: “You are no Government if you are incapable of taking any decision. You are callous people who want to wreck Europe and then to run away to your own troubles… What did you put into the common pool? You may withdraw your divisions if you like. You are absolutely incapable of facing facts. Never in my life have I seen such people.”
The British Prime Minister was basically calling the Poles selfish for demanding the preservation of the Polish state. But the Allies had no excuse for leaving Poland to the Soviet Union, betraying a country that had sacrificed so much for the freedom of Europe.
What President Trump is doing with Putin should come as no surprise. He never hid the fact that he intends to have a “deal” with Putin. He has shown little interest in what that would mean for Ukraine or for European security. The doing of the deal was always his sole interest. Putin was ready to oblige, but only if the deal was on his terms. Currently he wants part of Ukraine. But his ultimate goal has never changed: he will be going after Ukraine’s – and, when he sees a chance, Europe’s – jugular.
And here we are, reading Putin’s script in a Putin–Trump pact.
It is also easy to predict what Ukraine might do with this. President Zelensky’s position looks clear: he rejects the pact; there is no way Ukraine can accept a capitulation. Not while it is still able to fight and still has allies that can support that fight.
The unanswered question is what Europe is prepared to do now.
Is Europe going to follow President Zelensky’s example and continue to reject the Putin–Trump pact? I am sure there are those who already think that pressing Ukraine to give up is the best path forward. Some might even think Ukrainians are “callous” for making demands. From the point of view of a war-weary western decisionmaker, the Trump-Putin pact might seem tempting. It might achieve a ceasefire, no matter how temporary, they ponder. It makes the war somebody else’s problem, they say to themselves. And, they say, we need to do what we can to appease President Trump, especially if he were to threaten to abandon Europe.
To proponents of the messy redrawing of borders I say: we have been here before. One of the most shameful moments of the Second World War was the abandonment of allies – friends – who fought alongside the Brits and the Americans, leaving them for decades of debilitating Soviet rule, because it was “expedient”, or as they used to say, “there was nothing we could have done.”
That defeatist shrugging isn’t so convincing this time. We all know there are things we can do. We can help Ukraine. We can treat Ukraine as a true ally that has been fighting not just alongside us, but for us. There would be no hiding behind empty words. Whereas, endorsing the pact or pressuring Ukraine to accept it would bring generational shame.
Victors avoid judgement – that is why we seldom remember the words of Churchill to Mikołajczyk. But Europe is not a victor right now; it is on the path to be the next victim. So, if nothing else, self-preservation must kick in, convincing European countries that allowing the alteration of borders by force would be a suicidal move.
And in the end, the Trump-Putin pact’s power depends on others supporting it. The honourable thing to do would be not to support it. If Europe stands with Ukraine, the pact will last for just a short moment in Alaska.
Our friend @Neil_J_Smart has given his
final lecture, the apprentices learning from his wise words, great times, & hard work - patients getting the very best. Legacy exists in the actions of those that follow & the stories continuing to be told & yes mate, “You did good” RIP
Such an important study! If this were a new drug, it would likely be fast-tracked for approval. The best part? It’s just exercise — and we can start offering it to our patients as early as tomorrow! https://t.co/ktzUUtDN6v
🧵There are five illusions about Ukraine that lead to flawed “peace” plans that are doomed to fail. I have listed the illusions here in the hope that reality-based discussions can soon become the norm.👇
1️⃣2️⃣3️⃣4️⃣5️⃣
The peacemongers have failed.
Escalation was not managed, conflicts were not contained, people were not protected, laws were not respected. Now I hear victory is "unrealistic" and not even worth fighting for. But I see things very differently, and here's why. 👇🧵1/10
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Worth listening to Timothy Snyder in Tallinn 🇪🇪 yesterday: We are in 1938 now. If Czechs had resisted Nazi Germany at the time, there would have been no WWII. If Ukraine gives up or we give up 🇺🇦 we will move to 1939. Ukraine helps us to extend 1938.
https://t.co/n5tOYdazjR
@aneelbhangu@dnepo@Sivesh93@ASGBI_MA@RCSnews@ACPGBI@asgbi @MariaPicciochi @DrJamesGlasbey Every pt with rlq pain should go for ultrasound if available. Appendix is visible in 1/4 and ct is then not necessary. Everyone else goes for ct. NAR 4%. Our practice, 350-450 aa per year https://t.co/Ws7ni0eC0g
“It's our mistakes, it's our weaknesses, why Ukraine is still in this kind of bloodshed.” Fmr Lithuanian President @Grybauskaite_LT says NATO isn’t doing enough to support Ukraine’s fight for survival. “We are not giving them enough to win.”
@AlaaEl_Hussuna@juliomayol For an event of once a year, you have to think not only about listeners (who come to listen), but about the possibility to speak (which would be halved. People from underprivileged backgrounds (in terms of research) will have significantly less opportunity, less involvement