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I've read 8,000 Y Combinator applications.
You would think the reviewers are thinking through a standard set of questions.
Is it a good idea?
Is it a large market?
Is it an experienced team?
Do they have traction?
During my time as a reviewer, we went back and tested which questions actually predicted success. The process was look at the best performing companies and then ask whether the application question would disqualify any of the biggest outcomes. If so, eliminate that question.
Is it a good idea? Well, Airbnb was a bad idea. Air bed and breakfast. Nobody thought it would work.
Is it a large market? Airbnb, Coinbase, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia all started in tiny markets.
Experienced team? John and Patrick Collison had no experience in fintech when they built Stripe. Brian Chesky had never built a company. Brian Armstrong was just a product manager.
Do they have traction? We learned to invest in slope, not Y intercept. The initial traction doesn't tell you anything about the angle of ascent.
Sooooooooooooo...none of these standard questions worked.
The best question that predicted success was determination. Who is the most determined?
Even if they're not the smartest. Even if the market hasn't developed yet. Even if their initial product is wrong.
It outpeformed by a mile. And didn't disqualify the winners. AND was evaluatable.
It was so predictive that YC took that one question and found five different ways to ask it.
Just read that Starbucks lost $30B after hiring a McKinsey consultant as CEO.
Guy spent his career advising founders how to build companies, but never built one himself.
17 months later, he’s gone.
They bring in the Taco Bell CEO…
and the market cap jumps $20B overnight.
Turns out running a company is harder than advising one.
NVIDIA IS NOW WORTH MORE THAN... WELL, BASICALLY EVERYONE ELSE
Nvidia’s $4T valuation isn’t just historic, it’s comically massive.
It’s now worth more than Meta and Alphabet combined.
More than Microsoft. More than Apple and Amazon together.
At this point, Nvidia could probably buy Netflix, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and still have money left to build its own theme park.
Source: Statista
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RIP to the 10th world champion, Boris Spassky, here looking over my shoulder at my match with Hübner in 1985. Boris was never above befriending and mentoring the next generation, especially those of us who, like him, didn’t fit comfortably into the Soviet machine. (He emigrated to France in 1976.) It was a pleasure to tell my stories and those of others about him in the third volume of My Great Predecessors. His rise as a prodigy, conquest of the crown against the invincible Petrosian on the second attempt, and decades of elite play are too often lost in the shadow of his dramatic title loss to Bobby Fischer in 1972 and the circus Fischer turned it into. But Spassky always wanted to play, and he handled the situation with impressive dignity. While his chess justified the "universal" label that frequently follows his name, his aggressive gambiteering style produced countless masterpieces. (Photo by @larsgrahn)
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"After decades of practising psychotherapy, I believe it has little foundation in science and often causes harm" – https://t.co/zQ5hxjwCpL via @aeonmag
Harvard says AI tutors are better than Harvard professors.
The students who used an AI tutor in a Harvard physics class (instead of the professor’s teaching) learned more than 2X as much.
The best part?
They did it in less time and were more motivated and engaged.
I'm not sure people understand how important this is:
Goldman Sachs CEO says that AI can draft 95% of an IPO prospectus “in minutes.”
White collar jobs will go first.... and fast.
Scientists are no longer sure the Universe began with a bang "The beginning of time may remain, in the end, a mystery that we will never conclusively answer."– https://t.co/jCGD15HUxq via @aeonmag