$RKLB P/ARR 70x
$SPCX P/ARR 45x
Y eso que SPCX es EBITDA positivo, prima Elon Musk, prima AI, deal con Google y deal con Anthropic contabilizados, prima falopa, prima todo. Y aún asi RKLB 50% arriba y llego a cotizar a $150. Que mercado de mierda ya nadie valúa nada
Simple VALUATION math on: SPACEX vs ROCKETLAB
@SpaceX (targeting ~$2T IPO valuation)
2025 revenue: $18.7B
$2T ÷ $18.7B = ~107x sales
$RKLB today Market cap: ~$76B
2025 revenue: $602M
$76B ÷ $602M = ~126x sales
So using 2025 revenue, $RKLB is actually trading at a higher sales multiple than SpaceX at a $2T valuation.
Even using RKLB's projected 2026 revenue of ~$930M: $76B ÷ $930M = ~82x sales
But here's what makes it worse for RKLB:
SpaceX's multiple is backed by Starlink - $10B+ in high-margin, recurring subscription revenue at ~54% EBITDA margins. That's what justifies a premium multiple.
RKLB runs on contracts and projects. They're still posting EBITDA losses. The revenue quality does not look even close.
If SpaceX at $2T looks expensive, $RKLB is not cheap either - and it's arguably priced on even thinner fundamentals.
The market has already priced in a lot of future success.
Now it comes down to execution - especially Neutron.
Thoughts? 🤔