Tom Higgins

Follow me for Multifamily Real Estate Investing observations and opinions - Co-Founder, Terra, a Midwestern sub-institutional value add multifamily operator

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

When I was 11, I used to play World of Warcraft almost every day after school.

I was, for all intents and purposes, an only child living in NYC with two working parents.

After school, I would rush home, hastily 'finish' my homework, and log online.

During my time playing, I naturally formed friendships because we were all on the same level, striving for common goals, and realizing that collaboration made the journey more enjoyable, and sometimes quicker.

Two of my closest friends online were a father and son duo who were fantastic to play with. They would always log on a bit later than me, but I always eagerly awaited their arrival.

After many months of bonding over voice chat, we got to know each other quite well.

What I remember most vividly about our time together was the palpable closeness between the father and son. They understood each other deeply and functioned seamlessly as a team, never making me feel like an outsider.

One week, I went away for a few days. Upon my return, my online friends were nowhere to be found. Weeks passed, and a rumor surfaced that the father had passed away. It was the first time in my life I had experienced loss. I sent messages expressing my condolences, hoping to understand what had transpired.

Eventually, the son logged back online. When I reached out, it turned out to be his mother on the other end.

I remember the conversation as if it were yesterday.

His mother revealed that her husband had been battling cancer for a long time, and it had ultimately overtaken him. Knowing his time was limited, he chose to spend as much of it as possible with his son, meeting him at his level as a way to connect.

The bond between the two was extraordinary and has left a lasting impression on me.

Interestingly, I know for a fact that when they needed a break from gaming, they would go fishing, to the movies, or play outside, activities they both genuinely enjoyed because of their shared interests and bond.

As parents, in an ideal world, we hope to instill our passions in our children—be it Jiu-Jitsu, real estate, investing, etc.—hoping they will embrace these interests. However, that's not always the case.

My friends would likely laugh reading this because they know how much I hope my son loves Jiu Jitsu the way I do.

Perhaps, instead of fostering tension between parent and child, it's worth considering this duo's approach. Meet your child where they are. Engage with what they find interesting.

If it's video games, then so be it.

[Nick Huber @sweatystartup]

All my dad friends with 10-18 year old sons can’t get them to do anything with them.

Want to go camping? Nope.

Want to go on a hike? Nope.

Want to ride bikes? Nope.

Want a girlfriend? Nope.

Want to get your license? Nope.

They’re all addicted to video games.

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

@ItsKasum Don’t shade yourself like that… your magic was fire!

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

Terra Capital Real Estate Credit Snapshot
(as of August 11, 2025)

Fed Funds Target Rate (upper bound): 4.50%

Next FOMC Meeting: September 16–17, 2025 — Markets split: ~55% odds of a 25 bps cut, ~45% odds of a 50 bps cut. Fed funds futures imply 75–100 bps of total cuts by year-end, which would take the upper bound to 3.50–3.75%.

SOFR Overnight Rate: ~4.35% (flat over past month)

CMBS BBB- Spread (10Y conduit): ~615 bps (estimated); elevated, reflecting continued credit caution.

2-Year Treasury Yield: ~3.90% (down ~50 bps past 30 days) — front-end move reflects higher conviction in near-term easing.
10-Year Treasury Yield: ~4.27% (unchanged)

NAREIT Equity REIT Index: 752.8 (flat to slightly lower past 30 days)

Multifamily Delinquency Rate: ~6.15–6.6% (highest since 2015; upward trend continues)

⸻

Market Notes:
Jobs Report as a Catalyst: July payrolls (+73k) came in weak, unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, and prior months were revised down. This has pushed the Fed toward a September cut, with the possibility of starting a larger easing cycle.

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

Real Estate Credit Snapshot (as of August 4, 2025)

Fed Funds Target Rate (upper bound): 4.50%

Next FOMC Meeting: September 16–17, 2025 — decision expected on the 17th; Fed likely to stay on hold, but markets are increasingly pricing in a cut due to soft labor data and slowing growth.

SOFR Overnight Rate: 4.34% (≈–5 bps vs. 30 days ago); essentially flat month-over-month

CMBS BBB‑ Spread (10‑Year conduit): ~580 bps (+30 bps past 30 days); spreads remain elevated as credit risk persists across retail and office sectors

2‑Year Treasury Yield: 3.94% (–17 bps past 30 days); yields fell sharply following weak July payrolls and heavy downward revisions to prior months

10‑Year Treasury Yield: 4.23% (–13 bps past 30 days); curve remains flat as investors rotate to safety

NAREIT Equity REIT Index: ~753 (–1.6% past 30 days); public REIT pricing reflects continued uncertainty around cap rates and valuations

Multifamily Delinquency Rate (CMBS): 6.11% (+24 bps past 30 days); continues to rise, but remains below the broader CMBS delinquency rate (~7.23%)

Notes:

Labor market losing momentum: July saw only +73k jobs added, with a combined -285k revision to May and June. Private payrolls have averaged just +52k over the last three months.

Inflation still sticky: Core PCE remains near +2.8% y/y. Goods inflation posted +0.4% m/m in June, while wage growth indicators (ECI, AHE) continue to cool but are nearing normalization.

Outlook:

GDP growth is expected to slow in 2H 2025, with inflation hovering around +3%. Unemployment will likely trend modestly higher. Markets continue to anticipate two Fed rate cuts before year-end, assuming labor data remains soft and inflation doesn’t reaccelerate.

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

Weekly Real Estate Credit Snapshot (as of July 7, 2025):

Fed Funds Target Rate: 4.50%

Next FOMC Meeting: July 30, 2025 — Fed continues signaling hold; markets and dot-plots suggest first cut in September.

SOFR Overnight Rate: ~4.44% (flat over past 30 days)

CMBS BBB- Spread (10Y conduit): ~540 bps (-15 bps over past 30 days); remains elevated amid ongoing CRE market stress.

2-Year Treasury Yield: ~3.78% (+6 bps over past 30 days); yields sensitive to shifting Fed rate-cut expectations.

10-Year Treasury Yield: ~4.36% (+4 bps over past 30 days)

NAREIT Equity REIT Index: ~771.5 (-1.9% over past 30 days)

In April 2025, the U.S. housing market experienced its largest imbalance in over a decade—nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers. (WSJ)

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

“Socialism is a wonderful idea. It is only as a reality that it has been disastrous.” Thomas Sowell

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

Real Estate Credit Snapshot
(as of June 30, 2025)

Fed Funds Target Rate: 4.50%

Next Fed Chair Appearance: July 1st. Powell speaks at 9:30 a.m. ET; markets are watching closely for any forward guidance ahead of the July FOMC.

SOFR Overnight Rate: 4.40% (+4 bps over 30 days)

CMBS BBB– Spread (10Y conduit): ~111 bps (flat over 30 days); spreads remain range-bound, suggesting stability in conduit pricing.

2-Year Treasury Yield: 3.75% (+5 bps over 30 days); modest increase as rate-cut expectations remain fluid.

10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.26% (–3 bps over 30 days)

NAREIT Equity REIT Index: 759 (–1.3% over 30 days); minor pullback after June highs, public REITs signaling cautious capital market sentiment.

Multifamily Delinquency Rate: 6.57% (–46 bps over 30 days); improving performance in apartment CMBS, first meaningful drop since Q4 2024.

Notes:
Powell’s July 1 speech could set tone for summer policy expectations as inflation moderates and political pressure builds ahead of the election cycle.

Multifamily credit health is improving, with a notable decline in delinquencies; first sign of stabilization since mid-2024.

It will be interesting to see if Trump names next Fed Chair this summer and the impact on rates & spreads. Frontrunners include Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Scott Bessent, all cited as being in Trump’s shortlist

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

Real Estate Credit Snapshot (as of June 23, 2025)

Fed Funds Target Rate: 4.25–4.50%
Next FOMC Meeting: July 30, 2025 — likely on hold unless inflation surprises.

SOFR Overnight Rate: ~4.30% (+10 bp past 30 days)

CMBS BBB‑ Spread (10Y conduit): ~625 bps (+50 bps past 30 days); spreads widened sharply in May, reflecting heightened CRE credit stress.

2‑Year Treasury Yield: ~3.94% (+4 bps past 30 days); yield curve remains inverted, signaling caution.

10‑Year Treasury Yield: ~4.38% (+15 bps past 30 days)

NAREIT Equity REIT Index: ~732 (–2% past 30 days); pressure continues from rising cap rates and limited capital access.

Multifamily Delinquency Rate: ~6.60% (+110 bps past 30 days); affordability and maturity risk are pushing defaults higher.

S&P 500 Index: 5,370 (–1.3% past 5 days); equities pulled back modestly amid geopolitical risk and rising rate concerns.

Quick note on Iran as it relates to CRE:

Oil disruption risk is driving inflation concerns → which may delay Fed rate cuts further
Geopolitical uncertainty will likely push lenders into risk-off mode → leading to tighter underwriting
Widening credit spreads

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

Real Estate Credit Snapshot (as of June 16, 2025):

Fed Funds Target Rate: 4.50%

Next FOMC Meeting: June 17–18, 2025 — expected to hold rates steady, with potential hints toward easing later in fall

SOFR Overnight Rate: 4.28% (flat over 30 days)

CMBS BBB‑ Spread (10Y conduit): ~110 bps (down ~1 bp over 30 days); spreads remain moderate, reflecting stable corporate credit conditions

2‑Year Treasury Yield: ~4.75% (↑10 bps past 30 days); short end firming as markets recalibrate rate-cut expectations

10‑Year Treasury Yield: ~4.50% (↑15 bps past 30 days); still below 2‑Year yield, maintaining yield-curve inversion

NAREIT Equity REIT Index: ~733 (–1% over 30 days); slight pullback as investors digest rate uncertainty

Multifamily Delinquency Rate (CMBS): 6.57% (↓46 bps over 30 days); notable improvement, but remains elevated vs historical norms

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

(as of June 11, 2025)

Fed Funds Target Rate: 4.50%

Next FOMC Meeting: June 17–18, 2025 — likely hold; September cuts possible

SOFR Overnight Rate: 4.28% (flat over 30 days)

CMBS BBB- Spread (10Y conduit): ~580 bps (+25 bps over 30 days); spreads remain elevated amid sector stress

2-Year Treasury Yield: 4.05% (+10 bps over 30 days); Treasury curve stays inverted, market cautious

10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.50% (+15 bps over 30 days)

NAREIT Equity REIT Index: 778 (–1.5% over 30 days); pricing softens as cap rates adjust

Multifamily Delinquency Rate: 6.57% (+113 bps over 30 days); delinquencies rising on affordability and credit pressure

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

@ItsKasum Awesome times. I don't remember a lot of tips, though…

Practicing in your basement was epic

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

Exciting News at HH PM Services!

We’re thrilled to welcome Evan as our new Regional Property Manager for HH PM Services, Terra’s PM affiliate.

Evan brings 10 years of property management experience and a deep network in Indianapolis, making him a valuable addition to our growing team. His expertise and leadership will be instrumental as we continue to deliver top-tier service to our residents, our growing portfolio, and our third-party clients.

Great to have you on board, Evan! Looking forward to all the success ahead.

#Welcome #PropertyManagement #HHPMServices #TeamTerra #NewLeadership #ExcellenceInRealEstate

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

@preston_rohner Hi Preston, I hope you are doing well. Is there any chance you are doing your open mat today? I would love to drop in. I am here for the holiday.

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

@paulspacey That’s awesome - the day in day out effort aka showing up is everything

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

When I was 11, I used to play World of Warcraft almost every day after school.

I was, for all intents and purposes, an only child living in NYC with two working parents.

After school, I would rush home, hastily 'finish' my homework, and log online.

During my time playing, I naturally formed friendships because we were all on the same level, striving for common goals, and realizing that collaboration made the journey more enjoyable, and sometimes quicker.

Two of my closest friends online were a father and son duo who were fantastic to play with. They would always log on a bit later than me, but I always eagerly awaited their arrival.

After many months of bonding over voice chat, we got to know each other quite well.

What I remember most vividly about our time together was the palpable closeness between the father and son. They understood each other deeply and functioned seamlessly as a team, never making me feel like an outsider.

One week, I went away for a few days. Upon my return, my online friends were nowhere to be found. Weeks passed, and a rumor surfaced that the father had passed away. It was the first time in my life I had experienced loss. I sent messages expressing my condolences, hoping to understand what had transpired.

Eventually, the son logged back online. When I reached out, it turned out to be his mother on the other end.

I remember the conversation as if it were yesterday.

His mother revealed that her husband had been battling cancer for a long time, and it had ultimately overtaken him. Knowing his time was limited, he chose to spend as much of it as possible with his son, meeting him at his level as a way to connect.

The bond between the two was extraordinary and has left a lasting impression on me.

Interestingly, I know for a fact that when they needed a break from gaming, they would go fishing, to the movies, or play outside, activities they both genuinely enjoyed because of their shared interests and bond.

As parents, in an ideal world, we hope to instill our passions in our children—be it Jiu-Jitsu, real estate, investing, etc.—hoping they will embrace these interests. However, that's not always the case.

My friends would likely laugh reading this because they know how much I hope my son loves Jiu Jitsu the way I do.

Perhaps, instead of fostering tension between parent and child, it's worth considering this duo's approach. Meet your child where they are. Engage with what they find interesting.

If it's video games, then so be it.

[Nick Huber @sweatystartup]

All my dad friends with 10-18 year old sons can’t get them to do anything with them.

Want to go camping? Nope.

Want to go on a hike? Nope.

Want to ride bikes? Nope.

Want a girlfriend? Nope.

Want to get your license? Nope.

They’re all addicted to video games.

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

@tysoncrosscre Hope it’s going well with the kiddos

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

@BrianRLevy @NintendoAmerica @mariokarttourEN lol

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

@ItsKasum 🙏

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

Here in Paris with my wife on a long-overdue getaway — our first real break since having our two little ones — I find myself thinking of one of my favorite quotes. Standing in the city where Theodore Roosevelt delivered his powerful “Citizenship in a Republic” speech in 1910, I’m reminded of his timeless words about courage and resilience in life’s “arena”:

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly… who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly.”

Being here, away from our usual routines and responsibilities, has me reflecting on what it really means to be “in the arena” in every part of life. Whether it’s raising kids, nurturing a marriage, getting better at Jiu Jitsu, building a business, or working toward a better world through local action — it all takes commitment, courage, and a willingness to show up for what matters most.

And in those moments of challenge, I try to remember: it’s not about perfection; it’s about the courage to keep showing up. Or, as I tell my son, ‘Just do it scared.’

[ReSeed Partners @ReSeedPartners]

Last week, the ReSeed team gathered in Boulder, CO, for our second Launch Week to welcome our new cohort of real estate operators.

Cohort Two includes 8 operators across 5 ReSeed partnerships. This new wave of talent brings expanded market exposure and differentiated strategies to our platform.

Importantly, we are growing our network at a time when we are seeing an emergence of more interesting opportunities across our markets, and our next acquisition is scheduled to close in November.

Stay tuned for more news! If you’re looking to invest with us, make sure to join our investor list (link in the comments) for first access to upcoming deals.

[Tom Higgins @tomchiggins]

“Someone told me the definition of Hell: The last day you have on earth, the person you became will meet the person you could have become.”