Mehul Panjuani

Perpetually bullish on life & markets | The best is here and now | Abundance & Bliss!!

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Opportunities!

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Into the Subconscious 🕸️

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Bliss!

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Mindfulness!

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Bliss!

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Mindfulness!

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Into the Subconscious 🕸️

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

https://t.co/RfYxIzKnfV

Lion Philosophy - Bliss!

[Trading With Mind @apoorvsinghasr]

Saudi Arabia needs 4,000 km of new gas pipeline. The only Indian company inside the gate is Welspun Corp. Read on to understand the thesis!
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WELSPUN CORP LIMITED
NSE: WELCORP | BSE: 532144
CMP: ₹846.85 | April 5, 2026
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The most mispriced infrastructure
franchise on the NSE right now.

Three countries. Three once-in-a-decade
buildouts. One company. Trading at 9.3x
FY28 earnings.

In May 2026, every screener in India will
show a Welspun Corp PAT decline.

The algorithms will sell.
The Twitter crowd will call it a red flag.

Here is what they will all get wrong:

FY25 reported PAT of ₹1,900 Cr included
a ₹470 Cr one-time gain from a partial
EPIC stake sale. That gain will not repeat.
Strip it out. Adjusted FY25 operating PAT
was ₹1,430 Cr.

My FY26 estimate: ₹1,600 Cr adj PAT.
That is +11.9% real operating growth.

The coming "decline" is a manufactured
optical illusion from one non-recurring
line item that screeners cannot strip out.

That illusion is precisely why this entry
window exists at ₹846 today.

📊 Verified Sources:
→ WCL NSE/BSE Quarterly Filings ✅
→ Q3 FY26 Earnings Call Transcript ✅
→ CARE Ratings AA+ Reaffirmation Dec 2025 ✅
→ CRISIL AA+ Upgrade July 2, 2025 ✅
→ https://t.co/31hWWi2619 | https://t.co/6PjjdSJhet ✅
→ All forward estimates are personal and
independent. Not SEBI registered.
Label applies to every number below.

⚠️ NOT SEBI REGISTERED. NOT INVESTMENT
ADVICE. DYOR. PURELY EDUCATIONAL.

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🧱 CHAPTER 1: WHAT THIS COMPANY IS
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Picture three workshops across the planet.

One in Anjar, Gujarat. One in Little Rock,
Arkansas. One in Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

Each workshop takes massive steel coils,
bends and welds them into large-diameter
pipes, then ships them to oil majors,
water utilities, LNG terminal builders,
and gas grid operators who have no
alternative qualified supplier at that
precise specification.

That is Welspun Corp.

The moat is deceptively simple:
API-certified large-diameter pipe
manufacturing takes 3 to 5 years and
hundreds of crores to build. The new US
LSAW mill (end-FY27) will produce pipes
from 6 to 56 inches. It will be the ONLY
facility in the United States with 56-inch
capability. Zero competitors replicate
that by FY28.

REVENUE SEGMENTS (WCL Filing ✅):
→ 🇮🇳 India Line Pipes: Oil, LNG, gas
transmission. Largest volume segment.
→ 🇮🇳 Ductile Iron (DI) Pipes: Jal Jeevan
Mission water. ~20% EBITDA margin.
→ 🇺🇸 US Line Pipes: LNG export + AI data
centre gas pipelines. Fully booked FY27.
→ 🇮🇳 TMT Bars: Construction rebar.
→ 🇮🇳 Stainless Steel Pipes: Defense,
BHEL, industrial. Turning profitable FY26.
→ 🇮🇳 Sintex OPVC: Premium plastic pipes.

The consensus calls this a "commodity
cyclical." The consensus is wrong.

Here is the proof:

EBITDA per tonne (CARE Ratings ✅):
→ FY23 trough: ₹6,577/t
→ FY24: ₹11,031/t
→ FY25: ₹11,922/t

+81% unit margin expansion in two years
while HRC steel prices were FALLING.

A commodity business cannot do that.
This is a permanent product-mix shift.
Every DI tonne adds 700-800 bps of margin
over a line pipe tonne. Permanently.

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📈 CHAPTER 2: THE THREE-ACT STORY
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🎬 ACT 1 THE STRESS TEST (FY21-FY23):
Net debt peaked at ₹3,316 Cr (FY23 ✅).
Interest coverage fell to 2.06x (FY23 ✅).
Margins at trough: 5.1% EBITDA (CARE ✅).
US underutilised. DI not yet at scale.
This fear moment permanently discounted
the stock into a value trap narrative.

🎬 ACT 2 THE SILENT REBUILD (FY23-FY25):
While the market stared at falling revenue,
management executed a clear blueprint:
→ DI capacity India: scaling to 400 KTPA.
→ EPIC JV: 26.5% Saudi stake established.
→ US LSAW: new mill planning commenced.
→ DRI Plant: ₹659 Cr investment launched.
→ Debt crushed from ₹3,316 Cr to NET CASH.
→ CRISIL upgraded to AA+ (July 2025 ✅).
→ ₹1,722 Cr capex deployed in 9M FY26
while staying net cash. Rare discipline.

🎬 ACT 3 THE COMPOUNDING BEGINS (FY26+):
Three geographies firing simultaneously.
Record order book ₹23,600 Cr in Q3 FY26.
ROCE annualised: 24.4% (Earnings Call ✅).
US fully booked FY27. Saudi DI commissioning.
India LNG + CGD + JJM all running. FCF
inflects massively in FY28. The buildout
cost is nearly fully deployed. From here,
every incremental rupee of capex is
maintenance, not construction.

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🌍 CHAPTER 3: THREE-GEOGRAPHY ENGINE
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🇮🇳 INDIA: FOUR DEMAND WALLS, ALL RISING

→ Jal Jeevan Mission:
₹70,000 Cr budget, extended to FY28.
DI demand: ~220 KT (FY25) to 400+ KT
estimated by FY28. EBITDA ~20% (CARE ✅).

→ City Gas Distribution:
₹40,000 Cr investment by 2034.
(MD, Q3 FY26 Earnings Call ✅)

→ LNG Terminals:
India growing from 52 MTPA to 86 MTPA.
Five new terminals by 2030. Every terminal
needs high-spec transmission pipe.
(MD, Q3 FY26 Earnings Call ✅)

→ DRI Plant, Anjar Gujarat:
255 KTPA sponge iron. Capex ₹659 Cr.
FY27 commissioning. Replaces 15-20% of
HRC market purchases permanently.
Annual RM savings: ₹150-220 Cr from FY27.

🇺🇸 US: THE AI PIPELINE TRADE

MD direct quote, Q3 FY26 Call (verbatim ✅):

"We are seeing a significant demand,
continuing demand for the pipelines and
they are all driven by basically movement
for gas pipelines either for LNG export
or primarily for data centers. We are
seeing a surge of data centers coming up
in US and with each data center they have
to have their own power plant and all
those power plants requires uninterrupted
gas for which pipelines are required.
So we are into the part of the value
chain of the AI data center."

→ US order book: Fully booked FY27.
Partial bookings into FY28.
8 to 9 pipeline projects under active
discussion beyond what is already awarded.

→ New US LSAW Mill, Little Rock (end-FY27):
6 to 56 inch diameter range.
ONLY such facility in the United States.
No competitor replicates in under 3 years.
US premium ASP: USD 800-900/tonne.

🇸🇦 SAUDI: THE LARGEST OPTIONALITY

MD direct quote, Q3 FY26 Call (verbatim ✅):

"They are contemplating to put almost 4,000
kilometres of new pipeline. Master Gas
Phase 4 is about to go to 11.8 bcf per day.
From 11.8 bcf to 16.6 bcf per day."

→ Saudi DI Plant: Commissioning H1 FY26.
First local DI manufacturer in Middle East.
2/3 of Saudi DI currently imported.
Anti-dumping on DI imports "likely
beneficial." (Management, Q3 FY26 ✅)
Revenue potential: ₹800-1,200 Cr/yr.

→ Dammam LSAW MoU (January 2026):
350 KTPA with Saudi Aramco.
Converts to contract by Q3 FY27: adds
₹3,500-5,000 Cr revenue from FY28-29.

→ EPIC JV: 26.5% stake, Tadawul-listed.
Recurring JV income + strategic moat.
Jaffura gas network + anti-dumping
both lift EPIC's forward earnings.

→ April 2026 geopolitics:
Saudi east-west crude bypass expansion
post Hormuz tensions = unmodelled
incremental pipeline cycle.

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🔬 CHAPTER 3B: UNIT ECONOMICS MATTER MOST
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The most important number in this thesis
is not revenue. Not P/E. Not market cap.

It is EBITDA per tonne. Because it tells
you whether this is a real business or a
volume game dressed up in growth clothes.

EBITDA/TONNE TREND (CARE Ratings ✅):
→ FY23: ₹6,577/t (this was trough fear)
→ FY24: ₹11,031/t (+67.7%)
→ FY25: ₹11,922/t (+8.1%)
→ Q3 FY26: ~₹16,963/t (calc from
₹616 Cr EBITDA / ~363 KT volume)

That is +158% unit margin growth in
three years, in a so-called commodity.

THE MECHANISM:
→ One India DI pipe tonne earns ~20%
EBITDA (CARE ✅) vs ~12-13% for a
line pipe tonne. That is +700-800 bps
per DI tonne added to the mix.
→ One US LSAW tonne: USD 800-900/t ASP.
At ₹86/USD that is ₹68,800-77,400/t.
The margin delta vs India is structural.
→ DRI from FY27 saves ₹500-800/t on RM
cost permanently vs market HRC buyers.

These three forces compound together.
That is not a cyclical recovery.
That is a permanent architecture shift.

SENSITIVITY CHECK:
→ Every ₹1,000/t RM (HRC) change at
1,638 KT FY26 volume:
EBITDA impact: ~₹100-120 Cr
PAT impact: ~₹70-90 Cr
→ Forward cover: 2 quarters always held.
(Management, Q3 FY26 ✅)
P&L lag: 2-3 quarters post spot change.

ROIC ON DEPLOYED CAPITAL:
→ Cumulative capex FY24-FY28: ~₹6,600 Cr
→ Incremental EBIT by FY28 vs FY24:
~₹1,630 Cr additional EBIT
→ ROIC = 24.7% vs WACC ~11%
(AA+ rated, 0.12x D/E, low risk)
→ Every rupee invested creates ₹2.25 of
enterprise value. Textbook value-creation.

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💬 CHAPTER 3C: MANAGEMENT QUALITY SCORE
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→ Acknowledged misses honestly?
YES. JJM sluggishness stated directly.
No corporate speak. ✅

→ Specific numbered guidance?
YES. ₹2,200 Cr EBITDA target.
4,000 km Saudi pipeline quoted.
8-9 active US pipeline discussions. ✅

→ Consistent with last quarter guidance?
YES. 8 straight quarters of delivery. ✅

→ Capital allocation under pressure:
₹1,722 Cr capex in 9M FY26 while
staying NET CASH. ✅

→ Debt discipline:
D/E from 0.70x (FY22) to 0.12x (FY25)
during three simultaneous buildouts. ✅

→ Credit recognition:
Two agencies upgraded to AA+ same year.
CRISIL July 2025. CARE December 2025.
That does not happen by accident. ✅

→ Auditor: Deloitte + MSKA. No change
in 3 years. Clean books. ✅

MANAGEMENT CONCALL SCORE: 5/5 ✅

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📊 CHAPTER 4: THE VERIFIED NUMBERS
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Q3 FY26 ACTUALS (NSE Filing ✅):
→ Revenue: ₹4,532 Cr (+25.4% YoY)
→ EBITDA: ₹616 Cr (+41.7% YoY)
→ EBITDA Margin: 13.6% vs 12.1% year ago
→ Adj PAT: ₹365 Cr (+60.3% YoY)

8 STRAIGHT QUARTERS OF EBITDA GROWTH:
→ Q3 FY25: EBITDA ₹434 Cr | PAT ₹228 Cr
→ Q4 FY25: EBITDA ₹460 Cr | PAT ₹172 Cr
→ Q1 FY26: EBITDA ₹525 Cr | PAT ₹300 Cr
→ Q2 FY26: EBITDA ₹591 Cr | PAT ₹348 Cr
→ Q3 FY26: EBITDA ₹616 Cr | PAT ₹365 Cr

PAT grew ₹228 Cr to ₹365 Cr in 12 months.
That is +60%. Compound this forward.

OCF QUALITY (https://t.co/31hWWi2619 ✅):
→ FY24: OCF/PAT = 96% | FY25: 109%
→ 2-year avg: 102.5%. No earnings tricks.

BALANCE SHEET TRANSFORMATION:
→ Net debt FY23: ₹3,316 Cr
→ Net debt FY24: ₹820 Cr
→ Net CASH FY25: ₹340 Cr
→ Net CASH Q3 FY26: ₹132 Cr ✅
→ D/E ratio FY25: 0.12x ✅
→ Interest Coverage ~12x annualised ✅
→ CRISIL AA+/Stable (Jul 2025 upgrade ✅)
→ CARE AA+/Stable (Dec 2025 reaffirm ✅)

SHAREHOLDING (NSE Dec 2025 ✅):
→ Promoter: 49.7% | Pledge: 0.0%
→ FII: 11.5% | DII: 20.6%
→ Zero pledge for 3 consecutive quarters.

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🔮 CHAPTER 5: PROJECTIONS
All numbers below are personal
independent estimates unless labeled ✅
Macro: HRC ₹48K-56K/t, INR/USD ₹86-96,
Brent $70-85, 25% tax, JJM extended FY28
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9M FY26 base (WCL Filing ✅):
→ Revenue ₹12,457 Cr | EBITDA ₹1,732 Cr
→ Adj PAT ₹1,013 Cr

FY26E:
→ Revenue: ₹17,550 Cr (+25.6% YoY)
→ EBITDA: ₹2,365 Cr | Margin: 13.5%
→ D&A ₹420 Cr | Interest ₹220 Cr
→ Other Income (JV+treasury): ₹400 Cr
→ Adj PAT: ₹1,600 Cr | EPS: ₹60.5
→ FCF: ~₹580 Cr | Net Debt: ~₹100 Cr
→ BV/share: ~₹335
⚠️ Screener will show PAT "decline" vs
FY25 ₹1,900 Cr because FY25 had ₹470 Cr
one-time EPIC gain. Adj growth: +11.9%.
Screeners lie. This is the entry window.

FY27E: (Saudi DI full yr, DRI online H1,
US LSAW partial Q4)
→ Revenue: ₹20,875 Cr (+19.0% YoY)
→ EBITDA: ₹2,643 Cr | Margin: 12.7%
→ D&A ₹540 Cr | Interest ₹165 Cr
→ Other Income: ₹460 Cr
→ Adj PAT: ₹1,895 Cr | EPS: ₹71.8
→ FCF: ~₹790 Cr | Net Debt: ~₹3,000 Cr
(US LSAW project finance drawn down)
→ BV/share: ~₹390
Net Debt/EBITDA: below 1.2x ✅

FY28E: THE INFLECTION YEAR
(US LSAW full year 424 KT, capex drops
from ₹2,100 Cr to ₹600 Cr, FCF explodes)
→ Revenue: ₹28,000 Cr (+34.1% YoY)
→ EBITDA: ₹3,500 Cr | Margin: 12.5%
Note: Two independent models (top-down
and bottom-up) BOTH arrive at ₹3,500 Cr.
That convergence is not coincidence.
→ D&A ₹615 Cr | Interest ₹195 Cr
→ Other Income: ₹510 Cr
→ Adj PAT: ₹2,400 Cr | EPS: ₹90.9
→ FCF: ₹2,400 Cr | FCF/share: ₹90.9
→ FCF Yield at CMP ₹846.85: 10.7%
→ Net Cash: ~₹8,500 Cr
→ BV/share: ~₹479
₹100 invested today earns ₹10.7 pure free
cash annually from FY28. Best AA+ FD pays
₹6.5. WCL grows revenue at 27% CAGR.

FY29E: (US LSAW 85%+ util, Saudi LSAW P1,
India CGD full swing, DRI full savings)
→ Revenue: ₹34,000 Cr (+21.4% YoY)
→ EBITDA: ₹4,420 Cr | Margin: 13.0%
→ Adj PAT: ₹3,100 Cr | EPS: ₹117.4
→ FCF: ~₹3,500 Cr | Net Cash: ~₹13,000 Cr
→ BV/share: ~₹579

FY30E: (H2/CCUS specs emerging, Saudi P2,
India CGD near complete, US wave 2)
→ Revenue: ₹40,500 Cr (+19.1% YoY)
→ EBITDA: ₹5,470 Cr | Margin: 13.5%
→ Adj PAT: ₹3,850 Cr | EPS: ₹145.8
→ FCF: ~₹4,500 Cr | Net Cash: ~₹18,500 Cr
→ BV/share: ~₹690

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🎯 CHAPTER 6: UPSIDE CALCULATOR
CMP ₹846.85 | 26.4 Cr shares
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PEER CONTEXT:
→ APL Apollo: ~47x P/E (branded ERW)
→ Jindal SAW: ~14x P/E (no US/Saudi)
→ Maharashtra Seamless: ~9.3x P/E
→ Sector avg P/E: ~22.7x (NSE Apr 2026)
→ WCL at 11.4x TTM = 50% sector discount

P/E formula: Multiple × EPS
EV/EBITDA: [(Multiple × EBITDA) ± Net Debt]
divided by 26.4 Cr shares
P/B: Multiple × BV/share
FCF Yield: FCF/share divided by yield %

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📅 FY26E (EPS ₹60.5 | BV ₹335)
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P/E:
🐂 17x: ₹1,029 (+22%) | Q4 beats guidance
⚖️ 14x: ₹847 (+0%) | In-line delivery
🐻 10x: ₹605 (-29%) | Screener panic

EV/EBITDA (Net Debt ₹100 Cr):
🐂 12x: ₹1,071 (+26%)
⚖️ 10x: ₹892 (+5%)
🐻 8x: ₹713 (-16%)

P/B:
🐂 3.5x: ₹1,173 (+39%)
⚖️ 3.0x: ₹1,005 (+19%)
🐻 2.0x: ₹670 (-21%)

✅ BASE TP: ₹847-1,005 | BULL: ₹1,029-1,173
Screener dip in May 2026 = entry window.

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📅 FY27E (EPS ₹71.8 | BV ₹390)
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P/E:
🐂 18x: ₹1,292 (+53%) | Saudi DI + DRI live
⚖️ 15x: ₹1,077 (+27%) | In-line execution
🐻 11x: ₹790 (-7%) | JJM + HRC spike

EV/EBITDA (Net Debt ₹3,000 Cr):
🐂 11x: ₹986 (+16%)
⚖️ 9x: ₹786 (-7%)
🐻 7x: ₹586 (-31%)

P/B:
🐂 3.5x: ₹1,365 (+61%)
⚖️ 3.0x: ₹1,170 (+38%)
🐻 2.0x: ₹780 (-8%)

✅ PRIMARY ANCHOR: P/E 15x + P/B 3.0x
Base TP: ₹1,077-1,170 (+27-38%)
EV/EBITDA lower as FY27 is peak capex year.

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📅 FY28E (EPS ₹90.9 | BV ₹479)
FCF ₹90.9/sh | FCF Yield 10.7%
4 METHODS. ALL CONVERGE.
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P/E:
🐂 20x: ₹1,818 (+115%) | US LSAW full util
⚖️ 16x: ₹1,454 (+72%) | FCF confirmed
🐻 12x: ₹1,091 (+29%) | 1 geo underdelivers

EV/EBITDA (Net CASH ₹8,500 Cr):
🐂 11x: ₹1,784 (+111%)
⚖️ 9x: ₹1,515 (+79%)
🐻 7x: ₹1,249 (+47%)

P/B:
🐂 4.0x: ₹1,916 (+126%)
⚖️ 3.2x: ₹1,533 (+81%)
🐻 2.2x: ₹1,054 (+24%)

FCF YIELD:
🐂 5%: ₹1,818 (+115%)
⚖️ 7%: ₹1,299 (+53%)
🐻 10%: ₹909 (+7%)

SoTP (FY28E):
→ India LP: ₹940 Cr × 7.5x = ₹7,050 Cr
→ DI Pipes: ₹910 Cr × 7.5x = ₹6,825 Cr
→ US LP: ₹1,070 Cr × 8.0x = ₹8,560 Cr
→ Saudi LP: ₹120 Cr × 7.0x = ₹840 Cr
→ SS Pipes: ₹190 Cr × 12.0x = ₹2,280 Cr
→ TMT Bars: ₹160 Cr × 5.0x = ₹800 Cr
→ Sintex: ₹90 Cr × 27.5x = ₹2,475 Cr
→ EPIC JV (26.5%): 12x PAT = ₹2,035 Cr
→ Total EV: ₹30,865 Cr
→ + Net Cash: ₹8,500 Cr
→ Equity: ₹39,365 Cr / 26.4 Cr = ₹1,491/sh
🐂 Bull (Saudi LSAW converts): ₹1,700+
⚖️ Base: ₹1,491
🐻 Bear (Saudi stays MoU): ₹1,180

✅ FY28 VERDICT: VERY HIGH CONVICTION
All 4 methods converge above ₹1,054.
BEAR CASE MINIMUM: +24% to +47%.
Net cash ₹8,500 Cr creates a hard floor.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📅 FY29E (EPS ₹117.4 | BV ₹579)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

P/E:
🐂 22x: ₹2,583 (+205%)
⚖️ 18x: ₹2,113 (+150%)
🐻 13x: ₹1,526 (+80%)

EV/EBITDA (Net Cash ₹13,000 Cr):
🐂 11x: ₹2,338 (+176%)
⚖️ 9x: ₹2,003 (+137%)
🐻 7x: ₹1,667 (+97%)

FCF Yield (FCF ₹132.6/sh):
🐂 5%: ₹2,652 (+213%)
⚖️ 7%: ₹1,894 (+124%)
🐻 10%: ₹1,326 (+57%)

✅ BEAR CASE ALONE: +57-97% from CMP.
That is what asymmetric opportunity
actually looks like on paper.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📅 FY30E (EPS ₹145.8 | BV ₹690)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

P/E:
🐂 25x: ₹3,645 (+330%)
⚖️ 20x: ₹2,916 (+244%)
🐻 14x: ₹2,041 (+141%)

EV/EBITDA (Net Cash ₹18,500 Cr):
🐂 12x: ₹3,187 (+276%)
⚖️ 9.5x: ₹2,669 (+215%)
🐻 7x: ₹2,151 (+154%)

FCF Yield (FCF ₹170.5/sh):
🐂 4%: ₹4,263 (+403%)
⚖️ 6%: ₹2,842 (+235%)
🐻 9%: ₹1,894 (+124%)

✅ BEAR CASE: +124-154%. Not a typo.
A 4-year compounding franchise thesis.
Not a trade.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🕐 WHY RIGHT NOW IS THE ENTRY WINDOW
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Three converging forces create the entry:

→ FORCE 1: Screener Confusion Incoming
May 2026 Q4 results will show PAT "down"
vs FY25 because of the ₹470 Cr one-time
item last year. Most retail investors
will see a red screener and sell.
Institutions who can read a cash flow
statement will buy. Be on the right side.

→ FORCE 2: Capex Peak Is Done
FY26 capex: ₹2,290 Cr. FY27: ₹2,100 Cr.
FY28: ~₹600 Cr. Peak spending is over.
FCF goes from ₹580 Cr to ₹2,400 Cr in
just 24 months. The FCF machine turns on
exactly when the market least expects it.

→ FORCE 3: Geopolitical Tailwind Unmodelled
April 2026: Hormuz tensions accelerate
Saudi bypass pipeline construction.
Zero sell-side models have this.
Zero screeners can model it.
You have the MD's own words from Jan 2026.
4,000 km of new pipeline in Saudi Arabia.
WCL is inside the gate with a JV and
a manufacturing MoU already signed.

When the screener crowd sells in May,
the geopolitical crowd will be buying.
That asymmetry is where you want to be.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚠️ CHAPTER 7: THE HONEST RISK REGISTER
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🔴 RISK 1: HRC STEEL SPIKE >15%
→ Trigger: India HRC > ₹60,000/t for 2+ Qs
→ PAT impact: -₹150-200 Cr/year
→ Probability: 30%
→ Monitor: JSW/Tata Steel monthly pricing.
Forward cover below 6 weeks = red flag.

🔴 RISK 2: JJM FUNDING SLOWDOWN
→ Trigger: Fund utilisation <40% for 2+ Qs
→ PAT impact: -₹200-280 Cr (DI -15-20%)
→ Probability: 25%
→ Monitor: https://t.co/ilpGxW94uW disbursements.

🔴 RISK 3: SAUDI MoU DOES NOT CONVERT
→ Trigger: Dammam LSAW no formal LOI by
Q3 FY27
→ PAT impact: -₹120-180 Cr (FY28-29)
→ Probability: 20%
→ Monitor: WCL BSE/NSE contract filing.

🔴 RISK 4: MAY 2026 SCREENER PANIC
→ PAT optic looks like decline = -10-15%
→ Probability: 75% (near certain)
→ THIS IS AN ENTRY WINDOW, NOT AN EXIT.
→ Watch: Q4 EBITDA > ₹560 Cr = thesis on.

🔴 RISK 5: US LSAW YEAR-1 QUALITY FAIL
→ Trigger: 56-inch batch fails API spec
→ PAT impact: -₹100-150 Cr (FY28 delay)
→ Probability: 15%
→ Monitor: Any NSE warranty/rejection note.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚡ CHAPTER 8: CATALYST CALENDAR
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

→ MAY 2026 [CRITICAL]:
Q4 FY26 results. FY27 guidance issued.
Screener panic = buy zone.
EBITDA > ₹2,365 Cr FY26 = thesis intact.

→ APR-JUN 2026 [HIGH]:
Saudi DI first production announced.
First DI pipe made in Middle East.
Anti-dumping ruling outcome.
Impact: +₹30-50 on stock price.

→ JUN-SEP 2026 [HIGH]:
Dammam LSAW formal Aramco contract.
MoU converts to order = re-rating event.
Impact: +₹50-100 on stock price.

→ Q1-Q2 FY27 [MEDIUM]:
DRI plant Anjar first production.
First RM cost savings hit the P&L.
50-80 bps margin expansion visible.

→ Q4 FY27 [VERY HIGH]:
US LSAW Little Rock commissioning.
Only 6-56 inch mill in United States.
Institutional upgrades begin.
Impact: +₹100-200 over 2 quarters.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🏆 CHAPTER 9: FINAL VERDICT
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Three things the market has missed:

1️⃣ THE MISPRICING IS MANUFACTURED:
FY25 had ₹470 Cr one-time EPIC gain.
FY26 "decline" is optical, not operational.
Adjusted operating PAT grows +11.9%.
Screeners lie. Verified cash flows don't.

2️⃣ THE DATA SEALS THE THESIS:
EBITDA/tonne: ₹6,577 (FY23) to ₹11,922
(FY25) while HRC prices fell. (CARE ✅)
+81% unit margin in a "commodity" business.
This is permanent product-mix compounding.

3️⃣ THE NUMBERS MAKE THE CASE:
At CMP ₹846.85, my FY28 FCF yield = 10.7%.
Better than AA+ fixed deposits in India
on a company growing at 27% revenue CAGR.
Bear case FY28: +24-47%. Base: +72-81%.

THE SINGLE CORE INSIGHT:
At 9.3x FY28 earnings, Welspun Corp is
priced as a commodity cyclical while
quietly building the most strategically
positioned large-diameter pipeline
franchise across three continents.

That gap between price and value is
exactly where multi-baggers are born.

📊 RATING: BUY / ACCUMULATE ON DIPS
📊 CONVICTION: HIGH (9/10)
📊 12M TP: ₹1,005-1,170 (+19-38%)
📊 24M TP: ₹1,291-1,454 (+52-72%)
📊 36M TP: ₹1,491-1,818 (+76-115%)
📊 STOP LOSS: ₹680 weekly close

ENTRY PLAN:
→ Tranche 1 (40%): ₹840-870 (now)
→ Tranche 2 (40%): ₹750-800 (May panic)
→ Tranche 3 (20%): Breakout above ₹950
→ Avg entry: ₹820-855

RISK:REWARD at ₹850 entry:
→ Downside to SL: -20%
→ Base 24M upside: +65%
→ R:R = 3.25:1

RAISES CONVICTION TO 10/10:
→ Saudi Dammam formal contract filed
→ FY28 FCF confirmed at ₹2,000 Cr+ actuals
→ FII ownership crosses 13%

FORCES EXIT:
→ Promoter pledge goes non-zero any quarter
→ FY27 OCF/PAT drops below 0.5x for 2+ Qs
→ Saudi LSAW + DI anti-dumping both fail

THIS IS NOT A 3-MONTH TRADE.
This is a 4-year compounding franchise bet.

Three countries. Three once-in-a-decade
buildouts. One pipe maker. One price: ₹846.

The market will eventually price what this
business has become. The question is only
whether you are early enough to matter.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚠️ NOT SEBI REGISTERED. NOT INVESTMENT
ADVICE. ALL FORWARD ESTIMATES ARE
INDEPENDENT PERSONAL PROJECTIONS.
VERIFIED DATA LABELED ✅ THROUGHOUT.
DYOR BEFORE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
#WelspunCorp
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Into the Subconscious 🕸️

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Bliss!

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Mindfulness!

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Into the Subconscious 🕸️

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Mindfulness!

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Bliss!

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Into the Subconscious 🕸️

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Bliss!

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Mindfulness!

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Bliss!

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Into the Subconscious 🕸️

[Mehul Panjuani @tomehul]

Mindfulness!