Tomisphere

Here I mainly do baseball and political commentary, with other random thoughts mixed in

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox has had a habit of having a cold bat through Memorial Day and after the All-Star Break, but a hot one in between.
In the first part of this season, he broke that pattern.
What will happen the rest of the way?

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

The Red Sox gave Caleb Durbin a few days off around Memorial Day weekend to work on his hitting, pressure-free. It pretty clearly paid off. #RedSox

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

Another lousy trade idea from Patrick McAvoy of SI.
Why trade for a 2nd baseman that mashes lefties (150 wRC+ last year, although 85 wRC+ this year), when you'll have one who is even better at it returning from injury this month (Romy Gonzalez, 162 wRC+ last year)? https://t.co/gdk6zKxdzA

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

I see a difference with Devers. Devers came across as selfish, self-centered in so many ways.
Bello is a guy who is probably struggling to keep a positive mindset so he can perform his best, and getting frustrated when the press's questions refocus him on the negative. I'm cutting him some slack for that.

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

I get Bello's frustration. There's probably a mental skills coach telling him to focus more on the positive. But to make a career out of being an athlete, you've gotta talk to the press, who of course talk about the negative, taking him right out of this positive frame he needs to get out of these troubles he's having. It would take a lot of media savvy to talk about the negative to the press, then turn around and get in and stay in a positive mindset the rest of the time. It's a level of media savvy I'd expect from politicians and lawyers, but not from athletes. So I'll cut Bello some slack for this response.

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

@OwBroMedia Granted he has less than a third of the plate appearances of any of the other guys, but looking at the WAR totals especially, he's the only guy there that isn't a disappointment.

And aren't you glad they got Willson Contreras and not Pete Alonso to play first base?

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

The Boston Red Sox have scored 5 or more runs:

7 times in the last 11 games
0 times in the previous 11 games.

Their record is 5-6 in both stretches of games.

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

I'm super frustrated with them too. But things change over the course of a long baseball season. Often dramatic changes. They've averaged 5 runs a game over their last 8, but now the pitching has started failing them after having been so good for so long. The defense has been great. Two phases of their game have been the opposite of horrendous. The other phase is coming to life.
56 games done. 106 to go. A lot can change. A lot will change. Some things they were bad at, they're getting good at (like bunting).
If they were doing nothing to get better, that would be the most frustrating thing. But I'm seeing the effort to get better, and some of those efforts are paying off.
In June and July, some of these outfield bats get hot. That's a likely change to come.
At least one of the Romans (Gonzalez or Anthony) should be back soon, and will bring some added power when they do.
106 games to go, and I expect them to look quite different from the 56 completed.

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

I'd like to see Nate Eaton up with the major league club at some point this year. But his only infield position is third base, and he's a below-average defender there, while Durbin is one of the best. His bat has come around after a slow start in AAA this year, but I'm not sure that justifies a callup.
Yeah they're 10 games under, but that's not due to the recent play of the infield. But sure, through mid May the infield was a huge problem. They were partly sabotaged by Story trying to play through an injury he shouldn't have, and Romy Gonzalez not addressing his shoulder at the start of the offseason.

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

Without that logjam, there would have been an outfield deficit these last 21 games that Anthony has been out. That's 3/8 of the season to this point.
So maybe call that foresight instead of a fireable offense.
As for Duran's trade value, his historical best months are June and July, so that peaks at the trade deadline anyway. His production has been on an upward trend, and he's fixed the chasing problem that tanked the early part of his season. He'll get there.
And take a look at what Sogard, Gasper, and a revamped Kiner-Falefa have brought to the infield this past couple of weeks. That's been capable enough. Durbin's bat may finally be arriving, too, and Romy Gonzalez's return, expected in June, should bring some added power.

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

@SteelCity02605 @AdamKinzinger Condemned.

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

OPS allowed by Greg Weissert of the Red Sox in 2026:
In 11 appearances with no inherited runners: .564
In 13 appearances with inherited runners: 1.012

Greg Weissert should not be brought into games with runners on base.

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

@Mike_L_OBrien @TJBennettt37 Hmm. I had thought his bat was better this year. Maybe it was ... maybe I just haven't checked up enough on how it's going.

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

@TJBennettt37 You're gonna get some arguments about that ...

Personally I like the rotation they are doing. Gives Durbin a chance to work on things while under less pressure. And the offense is overall better with Sogard and Gasper taking ABs from Story and Durbin.

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

@JonathanBaumst4 @BostonTBA ... caused the Red Sox to give up good prospects for a bad to mediocre pitcher.
Sometimes, the other variables matter more.

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

@JonathanBaumst4 @BostonTBA History is littered with the mistake of applying aggregate data to individuals. Yes, the practitioner made the average of the group better, but ignored the fact that they made several people worse.
And this is how we ended up with Dustin May. Breslow's overfocus on height ...

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

Jarren Duran was chasing outside the zone at the highest rate of his career, and the results showed it.
Then this past series he stopped. He got 4 walks in the span of 6 plate appearances.
In the next 8 at bats he got a double, a triple, and two home runs.
It's connected.

[Tomisphere @tomisphere]

@JonathanBaumst4 @BostonTBA And you can't even blame it on teams getting too enamored with Statcast data, because that data actually says that good contact does more for all your stats and hard hit rate than does high bat speed - a lot more. But perhaps it's misuse of Statcast data.
https://t.co/Smjt2EbgL6