Tom Perfrement

Investment Principal at 5AM Capital. Co-Founder at GDI. @UniOfOxford MBA. Investor. Former Management Consultant. Tweets are research and not financial advice.

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

@DanW2Capital $SDGR isn’t a quantum-computing bet. But agree that it is largely under the radar. It’s physics-based simulation software + AI is used by all of the top 20 pharmas. NDR of 105%. Software rev is growing at double digits. $401m net cash. $1.0bn EV. Trades on circa 4x EV/rev.

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

“Big tech CapEx as percentage of EBITDA is now running at 50%-70%, which is similar to AT&T’s 72% at the peak of the 2000 telecom bubble and Exxon’s 65% at the peak of the 2014 energy bubble…” - GQG Partners (Sept, 2025).

[Matt Slotnick @matt_slotnick]

the SaaS to AI transition is going to be lot messier and less straightforward than people will admit

the CRM to AI CRM trope sounds really nice on paper, but the reality is a lot more complex

but because people like digestible narratives, those are the ones that persist 🧵

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

$XRO's acquisition of Melio is circa 13% of its market cap. Ranks even larger than $WTC's acquisition last month to buy Texas-headquartered competitor e2open (in its biggest ever acquisition). The market for tech M&A definitely seems to be heating up.

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

For the 1st time in its history, $WDAY (28x Fwd) now trades below $SAP (43x Fwd) and in line with $ORCL (27x Fwd), despite stronger growth and a purer SaaS profile. Could represent an opportunity if Workday’s margins and AI story can start to catch up in the next 24 months?

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

@StockMarketNerd All of that may be true, however, the risk v reward appears to skew towards the downside. Bull case they maintain 90% share in search on comparable monetisation to legacy search. Bear case their market share drops to sub 50%. It's Open AI's game to win and Alphabet's to lose.

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

@Filapek @JohnWickPencil @Dom94656454 @bardock__95 @wotz_it_worth Thanks for sharing @Filapek & @JohnWickPencil - always good to be reminded of mistakes; it is the best pathway to improvement. This one turned out to be a massive value trap. Happily admit that I was wrong & grateful to have exited a while back with something still on the table.

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

@goforgrowthco @MicroCapClub Thank you mate, let's catch-up again soon!

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

Was voted into @MicroCapClub this week, a forum for experienced investors focused on sub $500m market cap companies globally. Would encourage all microcap investors to check it out as a source of high-quality content. Membership is free and based on merit (or you can subscribe).

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

@finnews15 @MicroCapClub Not currently, @finnews15. I will investigate further. Thanks.

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

@MicroCapClub Thank you @templargin for the suggestion to apply!

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

Terrific outcome for $ENA $ENA.AX shareholders. Equates to a value of ~28c/ENA share. Upside uncapped if the $PSI share price moves higher. If the PSI share price moves down, the difference is paid in cash.

[CommSec @CommSec]

PSC Insurance Group $PSI has announced it will acquire all shares in Ensurance Ltd $ENA - an Australian based underwriting agency business, subject to the satisfaction of various conditions.

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

Note: for more on the concept of 'talent vortexes' and implications for investors this article is excellent: https://t.co/M1dsRTxucy $PYPL $AAPL $ABNB

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

Assuming a business with a 'talent vortex' (recruiting and retaining amazing people who attract more amazing people) IS a moat — at which companies do the smartest people you know want to work at right now? #ASX #NASDAQ #FTSE #DAX

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

Notes: The average SP/NTA discount for the analysed set (n=18) was 11.5%. The max discount was $PVL at -45% SP/NTA and the smallest discount was Excelsior $ECL Capital Ltd with a +24% SP premium(!) to NTA.

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

I've taken a brief look at the universe of LICs focused on small/nano/VC listed on the ASX. Understandably, there does seem to be a correlation between scale (market capitalisation) and the share-price/NTA discount. (1/3)

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

Despite this, there appear to be outliers. Notably, $PVL.AX $PVL trades at a ~45% discount to NTA, possibly due to the more illiquid nature of its assets, and $BTI trades at a 26% discount to NTA despite being at scale ($165m market cap). (3/3)

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

@RichardKoch8020 is the Co-Founder of L.E.K. Consulting and is Ex-Bain. But, even more notably, his investments have grown at a 22% CAGR over 37 years and have included Plymouth Gin, @Betfair and Auto1. One of the investing masters worth listening to. ⬇

https://t.co/pszkc26Vnc

[Tom Perfrement @TomPerfrement]

@lukewinchester9 Seems all too familiar. I learned this one the hard way with Halo. "Transformational acquisition" = looking for a lifeline that is too good to be true. 🚩