Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Here to share my own research & analysis, and to promote @FNArena. Expect to be challenged in your convictions, assuming you're sufficiently open-minded ;)

[Rudi Filapek-Vandyck @Filapek]

"Ord Minnett has reviewed its ResMed (RMD) model following recent strong test results from Eli Lilly’s new experimental weight-loss drug, Retatrutide,
and a broader assessment of the impact of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) products on the company’s business.

"Overall, we conclude the market is discounting a far more negative scenario in the share price than is ever likely to happen, i.e. it assumes 60% of CPAP users classed as obese and 75% of users classed as overweight stop using their machines in favour of GLP-1 drugs.

"This would equate to mask and accessory sales in the key US market falling by half in FY28, in turn driving a
30–35% fall in EPS over the longer term.

"We concede weight-loss drugs will reduce ResMed’s total addressable market (TAM) over the medium and longer term, but investors are pricing in a very unrealistic outcome at current stock levels, in our view, noting high levels of non-compliance with GLP-1 routines."
#stockinfocus $RMD #investing #equities #XJO

[Rudi Filapek-Vandyck @Filapek]

Citi on Treasury Wine $TWE: "Our first thoughts of the investor day presentation are positive as 1) there is no earnings downgrade to FY26 or FY27 consensus forecasts, 2) longer-term margin targets suggest upside to VA Consensus, 3) the company is undertaking a strategic review into the US (something that will be music to the ears of many shareholders)."

#stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

[Rudi Filapek-Vandyck @Filapek]

Jim Morrison knew how to deal with social media on financial markets:

The future is uncertain and the end is always near.

;)

#investing #XJO #equities #stocks

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

5 out of the 7 stocks in the Magnificent Seven have actually underperformed the S&P 500 since the start of 2025, a very different picture than 2023-2024.

Only Google and Nvidia have outperformed.

[Rudi Filapek-Vandyck @Filapek]

Datt Capital: Australian small caps are being overlooked precisely because the spotlight is elsewhere.

“That's often the best time to invest. These companies are quietly adopting AI tools that reduce their cost base and sharpen their competitive edge and they're available at a fraction of the valuation multiples being asked of the US mega-caps. Australian small-cap equities are a safer to invest in than the US stocks, where markets have run really hot in comparison over the last six months or so.”

#investing #equities #XJO #stocks

[Rudi Filapek-Vandyck @Filapek]

In his June Economic Update, Bendigo Bank Chief Economist, David Robertson, has cautioned the Australian economy has become a high-stakes tightrope walk for decision makers, with a cooling jobs market, persistent inflation, and global energy uncertainty driving a significant deceleration in growth and a starkly changing property landscape.

“As we have argued here for many years, we do need bold structural reform including tax reform to lift productivity, so that higher wages growth can occur without feeding back into inflation. But, the jury is out as to whether this can all be achieved without adjusting GST, to lower our dependence on personal income tax,” Mr Robertson concluded.

#XJO #investing #auspol #stocks #equities

[Rudi Filapek-Vandyck @Filapek]

@Guampy @ausbiztv @AusAndrewG @MariusMariton @julesaly @NadineBlayney Yes, ResMed is very much on my radar (and in the Portfolio). The market is spooked because there are biotechs developing alternative treatments for sleep apnoea

[ausbiz @ausbiztv]

A bit of Wednesday Wisdom with our experts Rudi @Filapek from FNArena and Michael Gable from @FairmontEquAU 📊

They delved into ten ASX-stocks picked by viewers ➡️ https://t.co/jOySYwafi5

#ausbiz #asx200
Stocks covered: $SGH $RFF $ARX $4DX $CMM $CXO $EOL $TUA $IRE $SDF

[Rudi Filapek-Vandyck @Filapek]

I am now of the view that CSL is no longer a High-Quality achiever.

Any sustainable recovery will take time. Meanwhile, there's no guarantee there won't be any more negative developments in the meantime.

Offsetting that assessment is the fact the shares are now extremely cheaply priced. This probably signals the market has given up on the company.

I don't think we will see the CSL from the past making a return, potentially never.

This doesn't mean the only way is down. The company should, at some point, start performing positively. And with a cheap share price, this offers perspective for outsized gains.

Alas, that's not my style of investing. I look for Quality, carried by robust growth and perspective. Hence, CSL will remain off my radar.

$CSL

[FNArena @FNArena]

The growth profile for Imdex $IMD looks backstopped by global exploration and a growing contribution from tech earnings, but is Q4 at risk of disappointment? https://t.co/qrStHbYqDi #investing #XJO #stockinfocus #equities

[FNArena @FNArena]

Life360’s $360 strong first quarter revenue and earnings were not enough to dispel market concerns around monthly active users https://t.co/GqXUoiIHAz #investing #XJO #stockinfocus #equities

[FNArena @FNArena]

AI is changing the world in many more ways than investors might realise. Time to adjust investment strategies, argues MFS' Robert M. Almeida https://t.co/itSLLRHE8P #investing #XJO #equities #stocks #bonds

[FNArena @FNArena]

While Brambles (ASX: BXB) faces network disruption and repair constraints delaying margin recovery, some analysts believe these issues will prove temporary https://t.co/cxTngu9xz1 #investing #XJO #equities #stockinfocus

[FNArena @FNArena]

Strong momentum in North American gaming operations, plus improving AI-driven productivity gains and resilient earnings growth, helped ease concerns around softer social casino trends, AI disruption and US casino demand for Aristocrat Leisure $ALL
https://t.co/IOOVQFNHMu #XJO

[FNArena @FNArena]

Strong trading momentum, accelerating data centre investment and growing AI-related demand strengthen broker confidence in Dicker Data $DDR. Second-half supply and demand risks are also noted https://t.co/KhRgAl3WBj #investing #XJO #stockinfocus #equities

[Danielle Ecuyer @au_shareplicity]

"Amidst many macro headwinds, the ASX200 achieved a positive total return in May, thanks to dividends, but couldn't keep up with the positive AI-led momentum elsewhere." @FNArena
May In Review: AI Momentum, Healthcare Pain https://t.co/exX3McPcaC

[Brian Sozzi @BrianSozzi]

Deutsche Bank on the huge stock market run-up:

"Since WWII, the only other time the S&P 500 has risen this rapidly (except after a recession) was months before a huge market crash."

[Rudi Filapek-Vandyck @Filapek]

@Guampy @ausbiztv @AusAndrewG @MariusMariton @julesaly @NadineBlayney Clearly, they didn't... but I wager my answer would have been tax loss selling ;)

[Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts]

So far, the market has delivered its strongest start to a midterm-year second quarter since 1950, despite entering what is typically one of the weakest periods of the presidential cycle.

[FNArena @FNArena]

The market wanted an upgrade and fresh leasing announcements. Goodman Group's $GMG Q3 update didn't deliver. Analysts remain positive on the group's expanding data centre pipeline, pricing power and long-term exposure to AI-driven demand https://t.co/2VqLvwzXbf #XJO