TonyB79

[TonyB79 @TonyB799]

@venture_charts Level 2 trade

[xAlex @alexd1a]

Buna dimineata ! 🌞
I am back in business, the macro business ! 📊🚨

Haideti sa ne uitam unde ne aflam astazi dpdv macro si unde ne indreptam in viitorul apropiat (cateva luni).

Economia americană a înregistrat cea mai bruscă scădere a locurilor de muncă din Mai 2020 încoace, conform datelor S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI. Excluzând pandemia, este cel mai rapid ritm de disponibilizări din octombrie 2009. La începutul lui 2026, companiile au avut o fereastră scurtă în care tarifele vamale (tarifele AIPA) au fost anulate de Curtea Supremă, ceea ce a dus la un boom temporar de angajări, deoarece firmele s-au grăbit să producă și să acumuleze stocuri înainte de introducerea unor noi tarife (secțiunea 301) și înainte ca prețurile la petrol să crească din cauza tensiunilor din Strâmtoarea Hormuz.

Acum, acel boom artificial s-a inversat: companiile au deja stocuri suficiente, se confruntă cu prețuri mai mari la energie și materii prime, dobânzi mai ridicate (randamentele obligațiunilor pe 2 și 10 ani au crescut semnificativ), și tarife noi, ceea ce duce la reduceri de personal.
Indicatorul Atlanta Fed GDPNow a scăzut brusc de la 3-4% la doar 1,7% pentru trimestrul al doilea. În același timp, raportul de inflație (BLS) a venit sub așteptări, cu componente precum asigurările de sănătate, chiriile și serviciile de călătorie arătând semne de dezinflație sau chiar deflație — un tipar neobișnuit când prețurile la petrol explodează, ceea ce sugerează că slăbirea pieței muncii începe să erodeze puterea de stabilire a prețurilor.

Prețurile ridicate la petrol ar putea pune presiune pe sistemul de creditare, aflat deja la finalul unui ciclu de credit îndelungat, riscând fie o recesiune obișnuită, fie o criză financiară majoră similară crizei din 2008.

In concluzie, deși cererile de șomaj rămân scăzute (un indicator întârziat, care de obicei atinge vârful abia în mijlocul unei recesiuni), combinația dintre o piață a muncii în declin, inflație surprinzător de slabă și prețuri la petrol în creștere nu sunt semne ale unei economii puternice, ci ale uneia care începe să se slăbească.

Asadar, dupa un iulie semi-bullish eu as fi precaut lunile ce urmeaza. Situatia din Iran doar se deterioareaza, luptele politice se vor intensifica inainte de mid-terms si cupa mondiala s-a terminat. Normal ar fi fost ca aceasta din urma sa aduca cresteri in piata muncii si in GDP dar nici macar asta nu se vede la nivel macro.

Revin la programul obisnuit de cateva tweet-uri pe saptamana care sa va tina la curent cu situatia macro. Daca ati simtit lipsa lor cat am fost in concediu in ultima luna si apreciati aceste postari un like/share ajuta ! 👍

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I have three monitors on my desk. The left one shows the order book. The middle one shows Truth Social. The right one shows the investigation queue.

On April 21st, the left screen moved first.

I am a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange. I have held this position for nineteen years. My job is to monitor trading activity for suspicious patterns and generate compliance reports. I am employee of the quarter. I have a mug.

At 19:54 GMT on April 21st, someone placed 4,260 sell orders on Brent crude futures. They did this during post-settlement. The window after the market closes when daily volume is typically in the dozens. Sometimes single digits. Sometimes I watch the screen and nothing happens for forty minutes and I think about whether my daughter is happy.

On April 21st, someone placed $430 million in directional bets in 120 seconds during that window. One hundred and twenty seconds. I timed it on my watch because the system clock rounds to the nearest minute and I have found, in nineteen years, that precision matters to no one but me.

At 20:10 GMT, the President posted on Truth Social that he was extending the Iran ceasefire.

Brent dropped from $100.91 to $96.83.

I flagged the trade. I flag a lot of trades. I want to tell you what happens to my flags.

My flags go into a system called TRACE. Trade Review and Compliance Evaluation. I did not name it. The system generates a report. The report goes to a committee. The committee has a name I am not allowed to share but I can tell you it meets quarterly and the conference room has a credenza with bottled water that is sparkling because someone once put still water in the room and a managing director sent an email about it that was longer than most of my surveillance reports.

The committee reviews my flags. The committee has reviewed all of my flags. Here is the complete record of actions taken on my flags in 2026:

Reviewed.

That's it. "Reviewed" is a status. In compliance, a status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one.

Let me show you my flags.

March 9th. Someone bet millions on oil falling at 18:29 GMT. Forty-seven minutes later, a CBS reporter posted that the President said the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much." Oil dropped 25%. Forty-seven minutes. I flagged it.

March 23rd. Someone sold 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT. Fourteen minutes later, the President posted on Truth Social about a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities. Oil dropped 11%. Over 13,000 contracts traded in sixty seconds after the post. Fourteen minutes. I flagged it.

April 7th. Someone established a $950 million short position in oil futures at 19:45 GMT. Three hours later, the President declared a two-week ceasefire. Nine hundred and fifty million dollars. I flagged it.

April 17th. Someone placed $760 million in bearish bets twenty minutes before Iran's foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Seven hundred and sixty million. I flagged it.

April 21st. The $430 million. Fifteen minutes. I flagged it.

That is $2.1 billion in directional oil bets in April alone. Every one of them landed on the correct side of a presidential announcement. Every one of them was placed in a window so narrow you could measure it in bathroom breaks. I flagged every single one.

The CFTC chair told a Congressional committee that his organization has "zero tolerance" for fraud and insider trading. I wrote that quote on a Post-it note and stuck it to my right monitor. The one that shows the investigation queue. The investigation queue has not moved since March.

Zero tolerance. Zero staff. Zero budget. Zero prosecutions under the STOCK Act since it was signed in 2012.

Fourteen years. The law has existed for fourteen years and has been enforced zero times. In compliance, we call that a compliance rate of one hundred percent. No cases filed means no cases lost. You cannot fail an audit you never conduct. We call that excellence.

Last month the White House sent an internal email to staff. I was not on the distribution list but I have read reporting on it and I need you to sit with what I am about to say. The email instructed White House staff not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets.

The White House had to send a memo telling its own employees not to insider-trade.

I want you to read that sentence again. Not because the instruction was unclear. Because the instruction was necessary. Because someone in the building looked at the same pattern I have been flagging for months on my three monitors and decided the appropriate response was an email.

The President's son sits on the advisory board of Kalshi. He is an investor in Polymarket. Both are prediction markets. Both saw accounts created days before U.S. military action.

One account. I cannot stop thinking about this account. It was called "Burdensome-Mix." It was created in December. On January 2nd, it placed $32,500 on Venezuela's president being removed from power. On January 3rd, Maduro was seized by U.S. special forces. Burdensome-Mix collected $436,000. Then it changed its username. Then it disappeared.

One account is a coincidence. But there were six.

Six accounts were created on Polymarket in February. All bet on U.S. strikes on Iran by the 28th. When the President confirmed the strikes, the six accounts collected $1.2 million between them. Five of the six never placed another bet. The sixth went on to correctly predict the ceasefire date and made another $163,000.

My surveillance system logged all of this. My system logs everything. My system does not have opinions and neither do I. I generate reports. The reports go to committees. The committees meet quarterly. Between meetings, the windows get shorter and the bets get larger.

March 9th: 47 minutes. March 23rd: 14 minutes. April 17th: 20 minutes. April 21st: 15 minutes.

The window is compressing. In March, you had time to make coffee between the trade and the announcement. By April, you had time to send a text. By summer, at this rate, the trade and the announcement will be the same event.

The spokesman said any implication that administration officials are engaged in insider trading is "baseless and irresponsible reporting."

Then the White House sent the email again.

I have been in compliance for nineteen years. I have seen insider trading run out of strip mall offices by men who could not spell "derivative." I have seen pump-and-dump schemes coordinated over WhatsApp by people who used their real names. I have seen a man try to manipulate soybean futures from a Panera Bread.

I have never seen $2.1 billion in perfectly timed trades across five presidential announcements in a single month go uninvestigated.

But I have also never seen a compliance system work this beautifully. Every trade flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Every quarterly meeting attended. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed.

Zero prosecutions.

As long as the flags go up and the cases don't, my performance review says I am meeting expectations.

I am meeting expectations. The system is meeting expectations. The $2.1 billion is meeting expectations. The fourteen-year-old law with zero prosecutions is meeting expectations.

The left screen moves. The middle screen moves. The right screen stays perfectly, immaculately still.

In my field, we call this price discovery.

[TonyB79 @TonyB799]

@Nebraskangooner @BloFin_Official Sugar, pls

[TonyB79 @TonyB799]

@Nebraskangooner @BloFin_Official Sugar

[Nebraskangooner @Nebraskangooner]

🚨 TUESDAY IS @BloFin_Official CHART REQUEST DAY 🚨

I'll be posting analysis of your favorite #Crypto and #Stock charts! 📈

Retweet and reply with your favorite tickers below 👇👇

[TonyB79 @TonyB799]

@TB21Crypto Prea mult din pacate, cca 5 ore.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Worth a repost

[TonyB79 @TonyB799]

@CryptoWhale_88 Nu m am bucurat nici o clipă.

[TonyB79 @TonyB799]

@alexd1a Bună, mi-am făcut un cont de BingX cu referul tau. Cum pot sa am acces la Telegram?
Mulțumesc

[TonyB79 @TonyB799]

@Moneytaur_ „Hi, I’m a subscriber and I’m having an issue cancelling my subscription. Could you please advise?”

[Gabriel Maur 🇷🇴 @maur_gabriel]

Propriul meu sistem la care lucrez de mai bine de 1 an (automatizare) bazat pe o strategie veche descoperita si rafinata in timp, se descurca remarcabil in conditiile actuale de piata.

Inca din toamna, BTC lateral, plus scadere de 36% (126k-80k), dar sistemul ('Metatron' l-am poreclit anul trecut), genereaza +16.29%.

Inchidea ultimul long la 112.8k, iar dupa asta mega drop.
Deschidea short la 102k, pretul mergand la 80k.

N-am postat doar pentru flexing. Vreau sa dau comunitatii, nu orice, ci cel mai bun tool pe care l-am creat vreodata.

Partea tare, vreau sa-l fac accesibil multora dintre cei care imi urmaresc postarile regulat, sa aiba un beneficiu in plus fata de ceilalti. Asa ca daca te intereseaza un astfel de tool (indicator & strategie tradingview), la cel mai bun cost posibil, fiind in categoria 'community first' lasa un semn.

Inca ma gandesc la seats dar probabil in jur de max 100, pentru ca doar cei mai activi membri din comunitate sa profite de oportunitate.

[Castillo Trading @CastilloTrading]

S/O to @TradingView for giving back to so many traders in the community

I, like many others here will be helping some of you out and giving away 1 Ultimate and 1 Premium subscription

Deal ends in about 3 days & winners will be selected, just like this post and you will qualify!

[venture @venture_charts]

$BTC update 29th November 2025

These video updates are for educational purposes only and should never ever be considered as investment or trading advice. Always do your own planning based on your own system. That is the only way you will succeed.

In "theory" $BTC and $COIN are still in a period of risk but a pivot is due in this market soon. The sum of the evidence suggests that it's likely the correction is on going. $93k was hit and that was the target ( I imagine a crowded short trade so there will be plenty of stops above there and it is inside value).

As always, thanks to those who support the feed which has been shadow banned for weeks and weeks (you will need notifications if you want these updates and that does not seem to be working either).

Black Friday discount on Level 2 expires on Monday see the website for the link ( https://t.co/H6tI091RBP )

Peace out 🐈

[TonyB79 @TonyB799]

@CrypNuevo @tradingview TonyB799

[CrypNuevo 🔨 @CrypNuevo]

TradingView has the best Cyber Monday sale in the space, don't miss it!

The team is kindly giving away 4 free subscriptions (Ultimate, Premium, Plus, and Essential).

Like + RT + comment your @tradingview username. I'll pick the 4 winners tomorrow in the BTC Sunday update.

[TonyB79 @TonyB799]

@flaviusmg89 Se adauga si Tva la suma asta si deducerea tot nu a luat-o. Iti mulțumesc oricum.

[Flavius Daniel @flaviusmg89]

@TonyB799 ai acest mesaj cand accesezi link-ul.
dai click apoi pe join reward.

[TonyB79 @TonyB799]

@Nebraskangooner @tradingview You're one of the best, Gooner!