Tortoise Tips 🐢

Slow and steady wins the race - or at least depletes your bank less quickly. Football (mostly), but not very much of it.

Only bet what you won't miss.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

I'm a data and stats nerd first, a football obsessive second, and a bettor third. Trying to be a bit more structured with my bets, so thought if I forced myself to share them (even if nobody's looking) I'd have to pay a bit more attention. We'll see.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

The sublime to the ridiculous

[Maestro Ochoa Uribe Ⓜ️ @ProfeOchoaUribe]

¡NO HAY DERECHO!

Se tiene que ir de la Selección el Sr. Jhon Córdoba… ¡NO HAY DERECHO! ¿QUÉ LE PASÓ?

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

I often feel like I've literally never seen Romelu Lukaku score after watching him play. I know he has, but I've done actually remember it ever happening.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

Got the international break coming up, so pausing again (told you this tortoise was slow) with a plan to look ahead for a run of 38x legs on Nov 22/23/24 when league football returns (i.e. plenty of time to get under the picks!)

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

Annoying the two earliest selections let this down before the rest sailed in 🙄

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

❄️ Super slow snowball begins again...

Just placed this 10-leg to follow tomorrow.
First game KO 12:00 (UK)

Aim is to get to 38 legs and 100x stake, so let's see what happens.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

❄️ Super slow snowball begins again...

Just placed this 10-leg to follow tomorrow.
First game KO 12:00 (UK)

Aim is to get to 38 legs and 100x stake, so let's see what happens.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

Just Burton Albion let this down. Which in hindsight I think I was more confident in than the data allowed for overall (though they still should have scored!)

Going to take a couple of days to consider best approach to picks before running again

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

❄️ Snowball...

8 legs to get started. £2.50 -> £15.27

Interesting day. Much meatier odds available on some really solid stuff. In a bid to work out a favoured approach to try and snare 38 legs in a row, thought I'd try this. Let's see how these go, and where we go from here.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

Just noticed that in three games last season Salah and Nunez had 33 shots between them (Sparta Prague, Brighton and Sheffield United - all at Anfield). That is a fuckload of shots.

Salah got 18 of them, incl a joint-record 12 for the PL against Brighton (shared with Zlatan).

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

❄️ Snowball...

8 legs to get started. £2.50 -> £15.27

Interesting day. Much meatier odds available on some really solid stuff. In a bid to work out a favoured approach to try and snare 38 legs in a row, thought I'd try this. Let's see how these go, and where we go from here.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

And no Mbuemo shot 😂

You can't make it up.

Cracking end to the Fulham v Brentford game though. £4.01 matched on the Betfair Exchange at 250 for the Fulham win (not by me).

Will look out a few options for tomorrow, but take it slow.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

Oh Parma 🙄

Not even a SOT!

Replaying the others and starting with a new stake.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

Oh Parma 🙄

Not even a SOT!

Replaying the others and starting with a new stake.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

❄️ Super Slow Snowball...

38 steps to 100x stake
8 down. 30 to go. 5 more tomorrow.
Starts 17:30 (UK)

Each of these have landed time and time and time again. Obviously the nature of the odds mean value is minimal, but am hugely confident in each of them (obviously). 🤞

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

@tkr4482 Oh yeah. For sure. Player props definitely in the minority in my thinking but I do think offer an option. Goals and double chance are my preferred markers as they’re the point of the game ie the team are actually trying to get a goal/result (same shots - wouldn’t trust a foul)

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

❄️ Super Slow Snowball...

38 steps to 100x stake
8 down. 30 to go. 5 more tomorrow.
Starts 17:30 (UK)

Each of these have landed time and time and time again. Obviously the nature of the odds mean value is minimal, but am hugely confident in each of them (obviously). 🤞

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

@tkr4482 What you thinking? As in take the team stats - eg high shot count, highly likely to score and look to back one of the team to simply take a shot? My basic approach is recent form + historical stats + context has to point to a 95% chance then gut/price!

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

Day 007 -- Results

❄️ Super slow snowball ✅
£2.50 -> £6.64
8/38 legs complete to 100x stake
Will continue through the week

🧠 Main bet ❌
Solid. But Ferencvarosi decided today was the day to be rubbish. Will give these a rest for a while at least to focus on the snowballs.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

Well that got exciting at the end. Porto 2-0 up in the first half triggered EP which left it on Inter (in their utterly stupid yellow strip) who looked destined for one of those ridiculous dominant 0-0s, then liable to a late goal which came, but was chalked off by VAR. 8/8

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

❄️ Super Slow Snowball...

I've had a ponder this morning and I've decided to slow down this tortoise even further. This is the start of an alternative approach that I want to try. Explainer in the thread...

£2.50 -> £6.63 (target £100)

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

@tkr4482 Ooft. Had chances right up to the end too.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

Obviously this long shot I placed on Man United v Chelsea, but didn't share as I was out of the house when teams were confirmed (and frankly only put on as PP were offering a free £5 credit for losing BBs), landed easily. But huge value given the data backing it.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

This is looking good. 6/8 legs landed with no stress at all. Just need:

🇮🇹 Inter to win
🇵🇹 Porto to win

Both have early payout, so hopefully a couple of early goals in at least one of them.

Be a nice start to this approach 🤞

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

❄️ Super Slow Snowball...

I've had a ponder this morning and I've decided to slow down this tortoise even further. This is the start of an alternative approach that I want to try. Explainer in the thread...

£2.50 -> £6.63 (target £100)

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

Last few days have seen some nuts results. They happen of course, but seems a particular run of them. Ferencvaros smashed Debreceni last time out, have a 100% record at home this season (with D. struggling away), F dominated, and D has just 4 shots, scoring with two to end 2-2 🤷‍♂️

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

Bet #007

🇭🇺, 🇷🇸, 🇪🇸
KO 13:00 (UK)

Three huge home favourites. That's the bet.

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

(treat this as a fun Sunday experiment to kick it off, after which I won't be looking for this volume in one go in a bid to actually hit a run of 38...)

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

❄️ Super Slow Snowball...

I've had a ponder this morning and I've decided to slow down this tortoise even further. This is the start of an alternative approach that I want to try. Explainer in the thread...

£2.50 -> £6.63 (target £100)

[Tortoise Tips 🐢 @tortoise_tips]

I want to try and hit that mark. But as it's also the case that 38 bets at 1.13 is 100x, and I didn't have much time this morning but did turn up these selections averaging 1.13, let's start there.

🐢