TP1

Free trading group specializing in crypto perpetual futures and US equities

[TP1 @tp1trading]

First week of TP1 Trading complete!

Here are the results:

$SAMSUNG long: +5R

$SNDK long: +2R and still running

$CASHCAT spot buy: +20r

$BTC long: +1.25R

$BTC long: -0.2r

$BTC long: -0.7r

$BTC long: -1r

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Total: +26.35R

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[TP1 @tp1trading]

The FOMC board is quite split in regards to policy rate and the possibility of a hike in September. At the July meeting, the hold vote was 9-3 with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan in favour of a 25 bp hike. This split comes after a cool headline CPI print of 0.0% MoM while expectations were 0.2% MoM.

The next CPI release is in two days, on August 12th, where expectations are for a +0.2% MoM increase in Core CPI. I do think that if the print is +0.2% or higher, the probability of a September hike will increase, with a +0.3% or higher print materially strengthening the case for a 25 bp hike. The hike will be no surprise as many are already pricing in the chance of a hike at >50%; such as Reuters futures and Polymarket traders.

I think many expect a catastrophic sell off when a “rate-hike” comes - I don’t believe that this is the case in this context. I think the big move will come on the CPI print; where a hot print will heavily skew the consensus for a hike. I also believe that a chunk of the downside move has already been front run - evident by the -12.5% and -5% moves on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices respectively during the recent selloff (both have since been reclaimed).

I would position short - but not on stocks. I am already considerably short on Bitcoin [$BTC] as I firmly believe there is relative weakness here when compared to indices/tech stocks at the moment. The strength on stocks makes me believe that there is no meaningful downside move to be captured.

The thesis is a combination of technical analysis and this macro thesis (trade is invalidated on a reclaim of $65,700).

[TP1 @tp1trading]

TP1 Trading is short on Bitcoin - $BTC.

It's failure to breakout above weekly/monthly resistance. Thinking a breakdown is to come now.

The relative weakness compared to stocks is bearish IMO. Indices bounced hard from its lows put in last Wednesday; with tech up 10% and S&P500 trading well above it's previous ATH. BTC is up roughly 3% since then.

Targeting weekly support at 54.9k

Cutting this trade manually on a weekly close above 65.7k.

[TP1 @tp1trading]

Could be one of the most insane trades I've ever hit.

+28% intraday. Bottom entry + top exit on $MU .

Only at TP1 Trading.

Join here for free: https://t.co/hZS0qcHZ2i

[TP1 @tp1trading]

Pico topped the TP and the runner stopped out breakeven.

GG

[TP1 @tp1trading]

Closed 75% of the NQ position here at $29,300.

Letting rest run higher.

TP1 Trading eating good.

Join here for free: https://t.co/hZS0qcHZ2i

[TP1 @tp1trading]

$NQ/$US100/$NAS100/$QQQ confirmed the breakdown two weeks in a row, leading me to believe that further downside is imminent.

A weekly close back above the breakdown level invalidates this idea and we must treat it as a deviation.

Though, it seems likely that we will trader lower into the $26,780 level on $NQ before finding a bottom. I will be bidding this level heavily and loading up on the strongest tech stocks.

[TP1 @tp1trading]

If you have a profitable system, increasing trade frequency allows you to realize your edge and decrease randomness (assuming all trades follow your system). Especially for prop-traders who risk large on tight DD's, you'll find more success in more trades with less risk vs. less trades with more risk.

[TP1 @tp1trading]

To make money in markets, you either need to be really smart or really dumb.

The mid-curvers are simply exit liquidity.

[TP1 @tp1trading]

Knowing where to bet is as important as knowing how to bet.

Our two longs - $SNDK and $MU - are posting big green days amidst a broader market sell off.

TP1 gang is eating per-usual.

[TP1 @tp1trading]

The first thing new traders do is try to hunt down the "best trading strategy" - this is why most fail.

Whether it's ICT, order flow, market structure or simple buy and hold, the way you manage the trades will make or break your account.

Most traders look for ways to maximize profits and this is why they will always blow up.

The key to profitable trading is NOT LOSING MONEY. Protecting downside is 10x more important than maximizing upside.

Instead of asking yourself "how do I win?", you should be figuring out ways you can lose; and then make sure to not do those things.

Beating the market isn't about always winning. It's about not losing.

Simplicity is more.

[TP1 @tp1trading]

Called out these 3 tickers in our investment channel last week. Even DCA'd as they sold off more.

Banger plays.

Join here for free: https://t.co/hZS0qcHZ2i

$SNDK $MU $DRAM

[TP1 @tp1trading]

Closed 75% of the NQ position here at $29,300.

Letting rest run higher.

TP1 Trading eating good.

Join here for free: https://t.co/hZS0qcHZ2i

[TP1 @tp1trading]

TP1 Trading is net-long on NQ/US100 at an average entry price of ~$28,742.

The trade idea is quite simple. First, it's traded into daily support for the first test - a loss of this level would result in a -6%~ retrace to my estimation.

Thread🔽

[TP1 @tp1trading]

Bouncing now - cutting on a daily close below ~28,700.

[TP1 @tp1trading]

TP1 Trading is net-long on NQ/US100 at an average entry price of ~$28,742.

The trade idea is quite simple. First, it's traded into daily support for the first test - a loss of this level would result in a -6%~ retrace to my estimation.

Thread🔽

[TP1 @tp1trading]

Next, the 1H and 4H RSI's are oversold; at ~12 and ~24 respectively.

These confluences aligning lead me to believe that a bounce is imminent. Playing this more like a scalp, though I've DCA'd on long-term accounts.

[TP1 @tp1trading]

Today marks the start of TP1 Trading.

We are a free trading community that specializes in crypto perpetual and US equities trading.

Join here: https://t.co/0Jx5GCXljV