If you trade trend, you'll get a bunch of false starts
If you trade momentum, you'll often buy the top/sell the bottom
If you trade mean reversion, you'll periodically get carried out by an outsized move
And so on for basically every trading system
This is the cost of doing business that's embedded into every market effect you're monetising
Your job is to understand it and manage it
If you try to avoid it entirely you simply won't get paid
There's no perfect system, it's all about managing trade-offs
Go take a look at your setups/playbook or wherever your trading system lives and map its assumptions and failure cases
The stuff you wanna avoid:
1. Mutating your system because the risk feels uncomfy so you get the worst of both worlds e.g. not holding for long trends/outsized moves but still eating the false starts when you're wrong (all the downside, no balls for the upside)
2. Not knowing what the trade-offs are and sizing like a dickhead so when you're wrong it wipes out all your gains e.g. penny collecting on mean reversion with increasing size and then getting fully wiped on the outsized move
It's been nearly three months since I publicly shared my swing and day trading POIs. I accurately predicted the absolute low at $74,482 (with the actual bottom at $74,384.70), and since then, the market has surged over 50%. The first short POI after hitting the long POI led to a 4.61% move, the next one around 3%, and the latest one is currently unfolding after a failed auction of the previous all-time high.
I've moved away from boasting about profits and percentages—this is about sharing knowledge. Can you find another trader or influencer who shared their POIs months in advance, with each one resulting in a successful swing or day trade?
"Price action" alone will never make you profitable.
If you aren’t tracking liquidity, order flow, and risk, you're just guessing cleaner than others.
Here’s how real traders actually win:
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