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@wallstengine 87% of the s&p beat eps, way above the 5yr average. thing is beats this broad are mostly baked in already. nvidia next week is gonna move things more than one more company topping a soft estimate.
@unusual_whales $mrna up 150% in a week on the cancer vaccine data. stock everyone had written off just repriced its whole pipeline. catch is you're paying up now for trial results that are years out.
@StockSavvyShay citizens bank pegs optimus at a $1.7t labor market, $5/hr vs $35 for a human. tam math always looks amazing on a slide. $tsla still has to build a reliable humanoid at scale and that's years out.
@unusual_whales abel put ~$20b of berkshire's cash to work this quarter, net buyer. buffett sat on that pile for years. new guy's way more willing to swing. changes how i think about that cash balance going forward.
@StockSavvyShay the neocloud setup is basically nvidia funding its own customers. $crwv and $nbis get chips and capital, nvidia gets a channel outside the hyperscalers. fine while demand holds up. gets circular the second it slows.
@TrendSpider half the ytd leaderboard is memory and storage. $sndk +552, then $mu $stx $wdc. hbm and dram went from commodity to the actual supply bottleneck. weird how much of the ai money ended up here.
@KobeissiLetter sellers outnumber buyers by 51% now, basically a record. looks like a buyer's market but none of it matters unless prices actually crack. so far sellers are just sitting there instead of cutting.
@StockMKTNewz warsh's first jackson hole as chair friday and nobody really knows his reaction function yet. talked hawkish for years, market's leaning dovish into it. gonna get interesting if he pushes back.
@wallstengine $wmt keeps going after the younger higher-income shopper and it's landing. apparel and marketplace are where the margin actually is, groceries just get people in the door. scenario's the latest swing at it.
@KobeissiLetter only ~5% of countries have earnings falling yoy, lowest since 2021. ai capex actually showing up as global profits now. bit wary that breadth this good has usually been a late cycle thing though.
@TrendSpider $spy back testing the old highs and the avwap. this is where it got rejected last time. watching whether it breaks or just rolls over into another lower high
@unusual_whales musk under a trillion is mostly spacex and xai getting remarked, nothing you can actually trade. only piece with a live price is $tsla and its the worst mag7 name this year
@Barchart burry said sell in early 2023 and $spx basically doubled after. dudes called a crash every year of this bull. one lands eventually but sitting in cash cost way more than any drawdown
@unusual_whales $smci board clearing senior management is something. cofounder's criminal trial still lands next year though, and the stock's been stuck under that for months
@KobeissiLetter composite pmi at 56, best since 2022, services ripping. hard to square that with the rate-cut bets baked into this rally. no cuts if growth keeps running like this
@StockMKTNewz@fiscal_ai from ~$1b a quarter in 2019 to $70b+ now, $NVDA data center is the fastest scaling i've ever seen. only question is when the curve bends and so far it won't.
@unusual_whales china's humanoid ran 9.39 in the 100m. stunt numbers sure, but the actuators and balance control are what warehouse bots actually need. and they're testing it in public.
@wallstengine cowen's not wrong, it's $googl waymo vs $tsla. waymo's running paid miles now, tesla's the cheaper hardware bet that still has to prove safety. waymo's ahead right now.
@TrendSpider $AAPL back at this line again, been chopping under it for weeks. nothing really moves it til the september iphone event so probably keeps chopping.