Trader685

Speculator | Ex-Insto Equity & Block Trader | SMB Capital | CMT | LDN HKG BOM DXB | No Advice | |

[Trader685 @Trader685]

Today marked the last day of my 22 years working on the sell side. Now after 11 years of study, practice and capital building I finally start trading for myself full-time. #bitcoin #silver #uranium #speculation

[Trader685 @Trader685]

Valuation Snapshot (Early June 2026 Context)

BTBT: ~$2.00–2.11/share, market cap ~$700–740M (349M shares outstanding).

Company-reported NAV (as of Apr 30, 2026): Combined assets (WYFI stake ~$857M at $31.69 + ETH ~$298M at ~$1,990) ≈ $1.155B gross.

Net of $150M convertible notes ≈ $1.005B NAV (~$2.88/share). Stock trading at a ~26% discount to this basic NAV.

WYFI: ~$31.56/share (June 1 close), market cap ~$1.22B. BTBT's 70% stake is the dominant NAV driver currently.
ETH price context: Hovering ~$1,970–2,000 range recently (volatile; company avg cost basis higher, so mark-to-market swings).

[Trader685 @Trader685]

@amitisinvesting Thanks for this - looks very useful

[Trader685 @Trader685]

SOFTWARE FLIPS SEMIS FOR THE FIRST TIME. TRUMP: "CLOCK IS TICKING, NOTHING LEFT OF THEM." + PULLBACK OF ATTACK. LEOPOLD'S 13F CRACKS OPTICAL. CRUDE $108 | $NOW +8.8% | $CRDO -9.2% | $LITE -8.8% | DEC SPREAD $23

The SOXX/IGV pair flipped today — software leads semis on rolling RS21d for the first time in the analysis thread — and that single signal, arriving simultaneously with NOW +8.8%d on a clean earnings beat, Trump declaring “the Clock is Ticking” for Iran with explicit resumption-of-combat language (even though he pulled back the planned strike), MOVE accelerating to 86 against a flat equity index, and Leopold Aschenbrenner’s $8.45B 13F release cracking the optical complex, tells you the market has entered a new internal regime even while the surface sits unchanged.

https://t.co/39wRGOYjiy

[Trader685 @Trader685]

@TheProfInvestor This is the catalyst in @Insane_investor interview with Chris barber he mentions $ENPH and $SEDG as developing SST which are the hype that is fueling the power semis run

[Trader685 @Trader685]

@TheValueist Synthesizing excellent work from
@insane_analyst and @TheValueist
so that I can internalize it better - published for the wider community

https://t.co/58fwFmgZ0O

[Trader685 @Trader685]

INV MEMO: Power SEMIS

Synthesizing excellent work from @insane_analyst and @TheValueist so that I can internalize it better - published for the wider community

$IFX GY $STM  $WOLF $NVTS $ON $ENPH $SEDG $ETN $MPWR $TXN $POWI

Full report:

https://t.co/AtK50i0xFT

[Trader685 @Trader685]

INV MEMO: Power SEMIS

Synthesizing excellent work from @insane_analyst and @TheValueist so that I can internalize it better - published for the wider community

$IFX GY $STM  $WOLF $NVTS $ON $ENPH $SEDG $ETN $MPWR $TXN $POWI

Full report:

https://t.co/AtK50i0xFT

[Trader685 @Trader685]

@chrisbarber @insane_analyst @itsclivetime @ContrarianCurse @TBU12345678 @OutspokenGeek @jukan05 @chernandburn @trsohmers @SKundojjala @citrini @bucketshopcap @dnystedt @SemiAnalysis_ @fabknowledge @FundaAI Excellent interview - my synthesis of this one, the other interview with @bubbleboi and the Gavin Baker Sohn interview are here: https://t.co/man34oUX0q

[Trader685 @Trader685]

Synthesis of 3 Critical AI Infra Interviews: @GavinSBaker @bubblebio @insane_analyst (by @chrisbarber)

The AI capex supercycle is not slowing—it is transitioning from the easy GPU-and-narrative beta of 2023–2025 into its most durable, highest-conviction phase. The real alpha now sits in the narrowest, physics-bound bottlenecks that hyperscalers literally cannot route around. Three exceptionally high-signal interviews conducted in May 2026— @bubbleboi and @insane_analyst with @chrisbarber, and @GavinSBaker (Atreides Management) at the Sohn Investment Conference—map these constraints with remarkable consistency. When synthesized with the deeper project threads (Nick Gagnet’s Coatue HBM thesis, the detailed CPU host-processor analysis, the CXL memory-disaggregation deep-dive, the InP supply-chain work, the neocloud execution forensics, and the power-semiconductor pivot modeling), the picture is crystal clear.

https://t.co/VyAzWYuFUF

[Trader685 @Trader685]

@bubbleboi Excellent interview - my synthesis of this one, the other interview with @insane_analyst and the Gavin Baker Sohn interview are here: https://t.co/man34oUX0q

[Trader685 @Trader685]

Synthesis of 3 Critical AI Infra Interviews: @GavinSBaker @bubblebio @insane_analyst (by @chrisbarber)

The AI capex supercycle is not slowing—it is transitioning from the easy GPU-and-narrative beta of 2023–2025 into its most durable, highest-conviction phase. The real alpha now sits in the narrowest, physics-bound bottlenecks that hyperscalers literally cannot route around. Three exceptionally high-signal interviews conducted in May 2026— @bubbleboi and @insane_analyst with @chrisbarber, and @GavinSBaker (Atreides Management) at the Sohn Investment Conference—map these constraints with remarkable consistency. When synthesized with the deeper project threads (Nick Gagnet’s Coatue HBM thesis, the detailed CPU host-processor analysis, the CXL memory-disaggregation deep-dive, the InP supply-chain work, the neocloud execution forensics, and the power-semiconductor pivot modeling), the picture is crystal clear.

https://t.co/VyAzWYuFUF

[Trader685 @Trader685]

Synthesis of 3 Critical AI Infra Interviews: @GavinSBaker @bubblebio @insane_analyst (by @chrisbarber)

The AI capex supercycle is not slowing—it is transitioning from the easy GPU-and-narrative beta of 2023–2025 into its most durable, highest-conviction phase. The real alpha now sits in the narrowest, physics-bound bottlenecks that hyperscalers literally cannot route around. Three exceptionally high-signal interviews conducted in May 2026— @bubbleboi and @insane_analyst with @chrisbarber, and @GavinSBaker (Atreides Management) at the Sohn Investment Conference—map these constraints with remarkable consistency. When synthesized with the deeper project threads (Nick Gagnet’s Coatue HBM thesis, the detailed CPU host-processor analysis, the CXL memory-disaggregation deep-dive, the InP supply-chain work, the neocloud execution forensics, and the power-semiconductor pivot modeling), the picture is crystal clear.

https://t.co/VyAzWYuFUF

[Trader685 @Trader685]

THE BOND MARKET CALLED TIME. 10YR AT 4.5%, MOVE +15%D, CRUDE $105, DEC SPREAD $22. EVERY SECTOR RED EXCEPT ENERGY. PANW/CRWD ARE THE ONLY AI NAMES STANDING.

The market conclusion is straightforward. The May 15 session was a rates-led multiple compression event triggered by the interaction of oil, geopolitics, and bond volatility. Samsung and Korea were the visible pre-market catalyst, but the real story was the 10-year yield breaking above 4.5% while crude traded above $105. That combination forced the market to reprice the probability of Fed cuts, compress valuations across long-duration equities, and reward only those areas with direct commodity leverage or non-discretionary spending support.

https://t.co/u2d1P9R3De

[Trader685 @Trader685]

$IGV / $SMH - flip in the price action today, very early but the RSI has been diverging since the start of APR, decent software names $DDOG $MDB $TWLO $CRWD $PANW $FROG emerging: $DOCU $SNOW $TEAM

[Trader685 @Trader685]

SOHN Conference 2026 Tech Pitches: $U $APP $AXON $RDDT $IFX GY $TTMT $GOOGL $LRCX $AMAT $ONTO $MU $HYNIX $NOK $GLXY – Expanded with Fresh Context h/t @TMTBreakout

https://t.co/Uc69Q50wpZ

[Trader685 @Trader685]

THREE SIMULTANEOUS RE-RATINGS. THE WAR IS BEING PRICED OUT. NVDA'S CHINA TAM JUST REOPENED. CBRS AT $100B. RKLB +47%WK.

The market is simultaneously pricing three independent re-ratings that have almost nothing to do with each other — war premium extraction, AI hardware TAM expansion via China re-engagement, and the emergence of space and humanoid robotics as investable institutional themes — and it is doing all three at once while breadth sits at 0.34pp and the index grinds near all-time highs on historically thin participation.

https://t.co/2kB9Zi1iIX

[Trader685 @Trader685]

@xynth_m Xynth

[Xynth @xynth_m]

Xynth can now scan the stock market for you 24/7 !

Simply describe what you want monitored in plain English.

Under the hood, we wire Claude Opus 4.7 + Python to 3,000+ live market endpoints to build your custom alert.

The workflow lives in the cloud, hunting your setup the moment it hits.

As part of this launch, we're giving free access to the top 5 most profitable alerts built so far.

RT + comment "Xynth" below to get access ↓

[Trader685 @Trader685]

@traderstewie Stewie - when and how would you buy this..? Would you be buying some in the hammer or set a buy stop that would trigger pre market or only during market on the up candle..?

[Trader685 @Trader685]

ESSAY BRIEF: Leopold Aschenbrenner "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead"

So if you wanted to reduce the whole essay to one living thought, it would be this: the world is still acting as though AI progress will unfold at the pace of normal technology adoption, but the underlying curves may be pulling us into something much faster, much bigger, and much less forgiving. The small group around the frontier already feels that. They see the capital moving, the compute scaling, the algorithms improving, the hidden capabilities unlocking, and the geopolitical stakes rising. They no longer think in terms of “someday.” They think in terms of the next few years. And Aschenbrenner’s purpose is to force the reader, at least for a moment, to inhabit that same frame of mind. To stop asking whether AI is impressive, and start asking whether our institutions are remotely ready for a world in which intelligence itself becomes industrialized, strategically contested, and perhaps explosively self-improving. That is the voice of the paper. Not simply excitement, not simply fear, but a repeated plea for lucidity before events outrun the habits of thought we brought into the decade.

https://t.co/hC6QTS6TzY

[Trader685 @Trader685]

BREADTH FAILS AT THE CEILING. CRUDE SAYS THE WAR NEVER LEFT. WEDNESDAY IS THE VERDICT. | $SPHB/$SPLV 2.07PP | CRUDE DEC SPREAD $18 | $MU +5.6% | $ARM -8%

The $AMD downgrade from Northland citing TSMC allocation constraints and CY27 estimates being too high) arrives precisely as the memory cycle is printing its cleanest structural signal of the entire thread: $MU +5.6%d (98th pctile), +17%wk (99th pctile), with $SNDK earnings this week.

The Northland $AMD thesis and the memory thesis are not in conflict — they describe different parts of the AI hardware stack. What they together confirm is that the AI infrastructure trade is bifurcating: the GPU/accelerator layer is constrained and subject to allocation dynamics, while the memory and analog power layers are in structural upcycle regardless of which specific chips win the capex wars. The clean trade is memory and power, not the accelerator complex.

https://t.co/C6i9K8JlQf

[Trader685 @Trader685]

SEMIS 18d STRAIGHT. $INTC +27%. RISK-ON REGIME TOUCHES OWN CEILING. $NEM EARNINGS RESOLVE GOLD. MARKET PRICING TWO CONTRADICTORY THINGS SIMULTANEOUSLY. | $ARM +15% | $AMD +14% | $NEM +9%

The Bear Traps Report (h/t @Convertbond) highlighting the Semis double-ordering situation as a sign of a top (they are now fully short semis) is analytically valid and directly confirmed by INTC's CEO. The mechanism: extended lead times → customers order 2-3x requirement → apparent demand overstates real demand → supply normalises → cancellations arrive → sector corrects sharply. SOX up 50% in 18 days is a parabola. SOXL up 90% monthly is a parabola. The AI demand thesis is real; the rate of ascent is not. Reduce SOXL and high-beta semi exposure to core positions ahead of the Wednesday mega-cap binary. This is risk management, not thesis abandonment.

https://t.co/dpqoCRR5Cm

[Trader685 @Trader685]

TXN +19%. SOFTWARE COLLAPSE. SEMIS STRAIGHT UP. INTC +27% POST-CLOSE. ANALOG POWER JOINS THE PARTY. THE ROTATION IS REAL. | NOW -17% | $CRM -9% | $MRVL +5% | $WDAY -9%

The post-close triple catalyst — $INTC +27%, $SAP +4% (then fading on 2026 guide), ChatGPT 5.5 launch co-designed for $NVDA GB200/GB300 — sets up Friday as the session where the market has to decide whether the software selloff is a structural de-rating or an earnings-season overshoot that creates a re-entry window. The $INTC print argues for the latter in one specific category: infrastructure-adjacent software with AI execution (SAP's cloud backlog growing 25% constant currency, $NOW's Now Assist target raised to $1.5 billion). The answer will arrive Wednesday with $MSFT and $GOOGL earnings — those are the reports that either validate software's AI monetisation thesis or compound Thursday's damage.

https://t.co/iit9tseJBQ