investment_matrix

🇮🇹

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

8. Companies with a high ROIC outperform over time:

[Sean Kelly @seanpk]

I take more than 40 supplements a day.

At 41, my biological age is just 27.

If this picture makes you cringe, you need to understand the science behind why it works.

A thread 🧵

[Mike Hoffmann @MikeHoffmann]

Bryan Johnson is spending $2,000,000/year to live until 120.

So I spent a full day researching his entire longevity blueprint.

Here’s a full breakdown of his routine & how anyone can use it:

(without spending $2M/year)

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

1/4

Lately, many are souring on the yield curve as a recession signal.

🧵on why the yield curve might still work.

tl:dr, it was never the inversion but the “uninversion” of the yield curve that signaled an impending recession.
@camharvey

[Max Hertan @maxhertan]

Dave Pascoe is 61.

Yet his epigenetic age is only 37.

He’s aging at an annual rate of 0.66, narrowly outpacing Bryan Johnson.

Here’s a breakdown of his biohacking protocol and how much it costs (it’s WAY less than you think):

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

1/13

The street has had a tough 24 hours.

Rallied bonds/stocks into CPI, thinking they would miss the consensus (below). Instead, they beat the consensus (above).

This morning, they sold off stocks/bonds into PPI, thinking they would beat. Instead, they missed.

🧵

[Alaric The Barbarian @0xAlaric]

The indoor heating thread: REDUX

When leftists post stuff like this, it’s a deep betrayal of their psychology.

They say the quiet part out loud.

1/

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

I've been commenting on the spot BTC ETFs today. In the repost below, I asked if Degens or Hodlers are buying the spot BTC ETF.

This is a well-known concept in the ETF community. They go by "trader ETFs" and "allocator ETFs."

The words are what they imply. Trader ETFs are dominated by "degens" that punt in and out of the markets, often chasing its trend.

Allocators are "hodlers" that buy for the long haul and do not get shaken in/out because of price movements.

The cumulative flows of these categories are shown in the chart below. The full list of traders and allocators are shown in the table.

Trader flows are in orange. In the last six years, they have seen only $68 billion in total flows. This list includes some of the biggest high-profile names in ETF-land, SPY, QQQ IWM, EEM, HYG, and DIA. They have $1.069 trillion in assets.

Allocators are in blue. They have seen a massive $750 billion in total flows over the same period. The names are dominated by Vanguard, such as VOO, BNDX, and VTI. They have $1.678 trillion in assets, more than trader ETFs, as their flow goes up to the right no matter what the market is doing, while traders are in and out in something that looks zero-sum.

Noting Vanguard at the top of the allocator ETF list is important because Vanguard has not listed any of the spot BTC ETFs and affirmed again today that they will not be listing them anytime soon. So, the biggest allocator/hodler shop is not pushing spot BTC ETFs.

This strongly suggests that spot BTC ETF buying is dominated by weak-handed traders/degens.
----
Wall Street has an old saying, "Take the escalator up and the elevator down."

If the cumulative flows in all spot BTC ETFs are traders/degens taking the "escalator up" to the tune of $500 million/day, then they can easily, someday, take the "elevator down" to the tune of a billion-plus in one day (or a few hours).

Worse, the SEC banned in-kind redemptions for spot BTC ETFs, something all other ETFs allow. In-kind redemptions mean when you sell, instead of the ETF giving you cash, they just divvy up the portfolio and give you its assets.

In other words, when everyone runs for the exits, the spot BTC ETFs cannot "in-kind" and just transfer you BTC is the amount you sold (at the time you sold it). They are forced to enter the market with massive sell orders that must be filled IMMEDIATELY AT ANY PRICE, regardless of market conditions in an unregulated market. If this causes BTC to "flash crash," then it kicks off margin liquidations, algo sell signals, and things get ugly really fast.

Hopefully this is a warning that does not come to pass. But we saw something like this in February 2018 around short volatility ETFs, dubbed vol-mageddon (spiking the VIX from 12 to 50 in two days). Of course, that was all on centralized/regulated exchanges, and the process, while ugly, was managed.

None of this would be a concern if the focus of this space was decentralization. But now the focus seems to be short-term, "number go up cheerleading" at any cost.

BTC Maxis might shrug, but the pain this will inflict on Tradfi might be so great as they stand to lose hundreds of millions; they will demand regulations to "prevent BTC/crypto from doing this again." And since the industry sold its soul to get Tradfi via regulated, centralized products (ETFs), the regulatory leviathan will have an avenue to "regulate and punish" BTC/crypto like never before.

@APompliano @EricBalchunas @natbrunell @nlw

[investment_matrix @trader_matrix]

@matt_gray_ Wtf did I just read

[Banana3 @Banana3Stocks]

$SPY $QQQ

“🍂☀️February☀️🍂” is short and sweet ❤️

Talk about asking to get my head chopped off to do a list in the literal midst of mega earnings season and the FOMC 🤯

I’m worried of a pullback in March, it could start mid to late February, on watch

But, here it goes…

$AAPL 🎯$195☀️🍂🍌
$AMZN 🎯$170☀️🍂🍌
$AFRM 🎯$47 ☀️🍂🍌
$AVGO 🎯$1235 ☀️🍂🍌
$ADBE 🎯$640 ☀️🍂🍌
$BABA 🎯$80 😡☀️🍂🍌
$CURE 🎯$118 ☀️🍂🍌
$DDOG 🎯$135 ☀️🍂🍌
$ENPH 🎯$125 ☀️🍂🍌
$KWEB 🎯$27 ☀️🍂🍌
$MARA 🎯$23 ☀️🍂🍌
$META 🎯$420 🌿💨 ☀️🍂🍌
$NFLX 🎯$585 ☀️🍂🍌
$NVDA 🎯$670 👀☀️🍂🍌
$PYPL 🎯$70 ☀️🍂🍌
$SHOP 🎯$88 ☀️🍂🍌
$TSLA 🎯$208 👀👀☀️🍂🍌
$TNA 🎯$41 ☀️🍂🍌
$XBI 🎯$96 ☀️🍂🍌

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE OF ANY KIND! Much love!!!
❤️❤️❤️
🍌🍌🍌
🍂🍂🍂
☀️☀️☀️

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

1/9

🧵

A soft landing is priced in. Getting one (if we can define it) does nothing for markets.

How it misses will move markets in 2024.

Count me in the camp that thinks the miss comes for a no-landing (or boom).

This will reignite inflation, sending yields up in 2024.

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

1/5

Why is the dollar going down?

Everything starts with US yields.

When yield, or coupon income (or "carry") goes down, the dollar is less attractive.

When yield, or coupon income goes up, the dollar is more attractive.

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

I assumed the Goldman Financial Condition Index was merely an index level.

I just learned the index is actually the equivalent of fed funds basis points (bps).

So, November's record easing of financial conditions was the equivalent of 90 bps of Fed cuts.

Or rounding it works out to the financial market's November rally doing "the work of the Fed" to the tune of four 25 bps cuts in the month of November.

Are we sure this is not going to stimulate inflation????

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

1/5

@ackman's argument why the Fed has to cut in as Q1.

--

“What’s happening is the real rate of interest, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines,” Ackman said in an upcoming episode of The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations.

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

How to analyze a:

▪️Balance Sheet
▪️Income Statement
▪️Cash Flow Statement

In less than 5 minutes:

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Liquidity is one the most important yet misunderstood macro variables.

This thread will help you understand how it works.

1/

[investment_matrix @trader_matrix]

@fundam_inv Free fire was available again in India from October/November, will need to wait for the next earnings to notice it's impact

[Giovanni De Merulis @dangdaide]

Quindi non diteci di fermare la guerra: non accadrà
Il Foglio del 13/11
=======================================

Se Israele ha sempre torto
Un giornalista israeliano dà voce allo scoramento del suo paese per l’ondata di odio. “Le abbiamo provate tutte, anche mostrare l’orrore. Ora basta”
Dopo l’orrendo massacro del 7 ottobre gli israeliani, traumatizzati, stanno facendo del loro meglio, a partire dai social network, per far capire al mondo il loro orrore” scrive Jonathan Yavin sul maggiore quotidiano israeliano, Yedioth Ahronoth. “Vogliamo che il mondo sappia, vogliamo che il mondo si convinca, vogliamo che il mondo sia dalla nostra parte – una volta tanto. Perché non è stato così negli ultimi… beh, non saprei: duemila anni? L’antisemitismo non tocca il culmine quando viene sbandierato apertamente da qualche naziskin che sventola bandiere con la svastica, ma quando viene furbamente spacciato da studiosi in cerca di notorietà sotto forma di una bugiarda campagna ‘per la libertà’, fatta propria e divulgata da celebrità alla moda, che non sanno un cavolo, affinché venga abbracciata da moltitudini di studenti sprovveduti e facilmente influenzabili. Quando i puri malvagi vengono fatti passare per poveri derelitti, allora l’antisemitismo si presenta nella sua forma più contagiosa e pericolosa. Si appiccica in modo astuto e molto persuasivo agli ingenui e agli ignoranti, che ben presto si rifiutano di prendere atto di qualsiasi fatto che metta in discussione la loro ‘narrazione’. E alla fine si trasformano in ipocriti compiacenti, sempre alla ricerca dell’opinione ‘giusta’ da esibire. Abbiamo provato di tutto, con questa gente, senza alcun risultato. Abbiamo fatto vedere filmati orribili. Abbiamo fatto sentire le vane, strazianti suppliche di genitori che imploravano di risparmiare la vita dei loro figli. Abbiamo mostrato lo spietato sadismo di Hamas nella sua forma più cruda e atroce. Eppure, in qualche modo, i ‘cattivi’ in questa storia siamo ancora noi. All’apertura dell’Amsterdam International Documentary Film Festival, attivisti anti-israeliani esibiscono uno striscione per la distruzione dello stato ebraico, accolti da applausi e acclamazioni del pubblico e del direttore artistico del festival, presente sul palco. Il regista israeliano Nitzan Gilady: ‘Non potevo credere ai miei occhi. Non ditemi che non capiscono cosa significa la frase ‘La Palestina sarà libera dal fiume al mare’. Hanno applaudito non una soluzione del conflitto o la liberazione dei palestinesi da Hamas, ma l’appello a cancellare Israele’. Bene, ecco una piccola notizia per queste persone: ne abbiamo abbastanza di spiegare. Tutto si è ribaltato. Tutto si è ribaltato in quelle case devastate dei kibbutz aggrediti, e tutto si è ribaltato in ogni altro senso. In Israele, praticamente tutti coloro che tendevano la mano in segno di pace ora stringono i pugni. Abbiamo perso ogni speranza di vivere in pace accanto ai nostri vicini palestinesi. E sicuramente non ci importa niente di quello che Greta Thunberg dice di noi ai suoi amici super-fighi: non quando sono in ballo le nostre vite e, a quanto pare, la nostra morte. La parte giusta, nelle atrocità del 7 ottobre, è quella israeliana. Lo capisce chiunque sia sano di mente. Decapitare neonati, stuprare centinaia di donne, bruciare intere famiglie, rapire bambini e anziani sopravvissuti alla Shoah e persone disabili sono tutte cose che non possono trovare nessuna giustificazione in nessun contesto. Questi non sono atti di poveri derelitti, questi sono atti di despoti sanguinari. Ma è come parlare a un muro, è assolutamente inutile. E se nessuno ascolta, perché dovremmo ascoltare noi? Quindi non diteci di fermare la guerra a Gaza: non accadrà”.

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

How to analyze a Cash Flow Statement, FAST.

Study these 9 infographics:

1: Cash Flow Statement Overview

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

1/2

*TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 4.365%, HIGHEST SINCE 2007

80% of Wall Street thinks yields have peaked.

They have not.
@dailydirtnap @allstarcharts @donnelly_brent @JeremyDSchwartz