TraderArtblog

Individual Investor

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

2026

Consumer Staples $XLP +16%
Mag7 $MAGS +6%

*Markets are Speaking: Why are recession resistant, defensive stocks like (think XLP names like, Proctor & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Colgate-Palmolive) destroying the Mag7 this year?

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where one of Europe’s biggest landlords calls the country “uninvestable.” Heimstaden is withholding fresh capital over Berlin’s expropriation plans. It owns 20,000 apartments in the city worth ~€5bn and estimates a potential €1bn loss. Its hybrid bond has plunged from ~98 cents in August to 82.5. The irony: a policy meant to tackle the housing shortage risks driving away investment without building a single new home. https://t.co/hb4Ox0lalB

[TraderArtblog @TraderArtblog]

@RnaudBertrand If there are no long term profits in the stock market there is no reason for anyone to invest in this particular stock market. Money flows where it can compound. If you do not have deep capital markets you can not really compete.

[TraderArtblog @TraderArtblog]

@StephenMoore House of cards

[Stephen Moore @StephenMoore]

Memo to the Trump administration: Stop buying companies.

A government $40 trillion in debt should be SELLING assets, not buying ownership stakes in 36 companies.

We thought government control of the means of production was what we were fighting against.

[Ed Zitron @edzitron]

This is the direct opposite of what I’ve heard from people who were there lol

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

BERNSTEIN: “.. we caught a lot of hate when we initiated $CRWV with a $56 price target seven months ago. Today, it’s a lot harder to find bulls — certainly some of them just don’t call us anymore.”

Reiterate Underweight

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Meta reported free cash flow of -$2.1 billion in Q3, the first negative quarter since the company went public in 2012. This was driven by the massive 80% YoY increase in AI infrastructure spending (to $34.9 billion), which outpaced the $32.8 billion in operating cash flow. $META

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

$SPCX Shareholders, you sure you want to buy this 5% ROIC business for $1.5T…?!

[Craig Shapiro @ces921]

Raising equity at this valuation seems like a no brainer vs raising more high coupon debt for META (and for every other tech company out there)

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

Credit - Leads - Equities: Markets are speaking - Loan market stress is building / see CLO equity players like Oxford Lane. Ladies and gentlemen, pay attention.

[ℍᖘ @hristopelov]

@FZucchi im not very smart, but i read alot..

[TraderArtblog @TraderArtblog]

@SeanZubick @tavi @PeterSchiff 3800 -3600 is the target. Not here. Then you should load gold.

[TraderArtblog @TraderArtblog]

The Tech Stocks Going To ZERO: Bankruptcies ‘Only A Question Of Time’| G... https://t.co/oGfGlraeWV

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

It's a bird... It's a plane... NO, it's CCC junk bonds hitting 17.66%! 😱

[Michael J. Kramer @MichaelMOTTCM]

Oracle CDS now over 24% default prob....

[TraderArtblog @TraderArtblog]

@zerohedge For the time being though

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

“.. At the moment, we have more compute capacity than we have demand, and we have a lot of the tokens and processing power being given away in freemium solutions,” he told @CNBC. “Everyone in the AI race is running for a last-man standing position.”

https://t.co/KhrUlikLt8

[Henrikh @henrikhinai]

Bear Traps' Larry McDonald says SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI went from $360B to $5.1T in 3 years - and the markups are "distorting the true earnings power of the S&P"

"The market's already crashed internally.
This is a 1987 crash"

The Lehman Brothers veteran told Bloomberg's Tom Keene what he's watching in credit and the AI trade:

> The Last Saloon (0:00):
- His favorite indicator is the convertible bond market, the "last saloon." A "proliferation of serial convertible issuers" like CoreWeave means high yield "has shut these guys off."

> The 1987 Crash (3:01):
- 40-50 world-class S&P brands, like Nike and Harley-Davidson, are "all down 30 to 70%" - and "they're pinning the index." His trade: the beaten-down basket "between now and, say, June."

> The Depreciation Game (9:16):
- Chanos and Burry "are both saying the same thing": a "depreciation game" AI has gotten away with for "five or six quarters, seven quarters." Each quarter, "where's the beef?"

> The Markup Problem (11:44):
- SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI were "worth 360 billion" three years ago - now "$5.1 trillion." Those markups sit in S&P 500 earnings, "a one-time event potentially."

Every day I break down what the smart money really thinks about AI

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Data Center Disasters: full list of all the recent data center deals that have been postponed, pulled, or collapsed