ayer

professional opportunist
founder @vectoradata

[ayer @traderayer]

@confinedape I like it, always good to differentiate yourself as a professional in a sea of larps

[ayer @traderayer]

@confinedape @ExochartsC I only ever looked at CME for gap fills, but will defo have a look, thanks. If I recall correctly CME doesnt report OI data right? So is it strictly unique because of the delta and where/when aggresion shows up? Is that what you mean by “flows differ”? Need to see myself innit

[ayer @traderayer]

@TraderDaytona Love these, keep it up please

[ayer @traderayer]

@confinedape @ExochartsC I asked Veran(i think) as well but knowing the team its gonna take a couple months lol. Kiyotaka and MMT have HIP3 but both are still inferior platforms imo, alteast when it comes to footprint.

[ayer @traderayer]

@confinedape @marketlens_app The quant layer under discretionary trading. I've been quantifying setups treating orderflow as data rather than just visual reads (footprint, book skews). Mainly want to sharpen modeling reaction probabilities at key levels.
Btw is that more an R/
Python job in your experience?

[ayer @traderayer]

@confinedape @marketlens_app Would you recommend any data science resources? I have econ, econometrics background so Im somewhat proficient with R and well versed in basics of stats concepts, but would love to dog deeepet

[ayer @traderayer]

@TateTheTalisman How much are you getting paid to be russias bitch? Everytime you talk about the conflict you just shout “ukraine bad, putin good”.

But yeah its totally incomprehensible for russia to strike Romania, since they have such a perfect history with coordinating their strikes. Right?

[ayer @traderayer]

@confinedape @marketlens_app Thanks a lot, also may I know whats your background? You seem like you have a strong data science/analytics formal education

[ayer @traderayer]

@confinedape Care to make a more indepth post/video in this? Love your work btw

[ayer @traderayer]

@SpitfireTraders why spend hours and hours building and mainting a journal when you can buy something like edgewonk for 15euro a month and fuck off rest of the time

[ayer @traderayer]

@SpitfireTraders 100% agree, every trader and their grandma has a dashbaord coded by claude. They all look the same and none of the ones I have seen are of any value. Even if you built something of value, lets say a journal you will soon realize that maintenance is a headache

[ayer @traderayer]

@TheShortBear I was a big fan of the new BMW grill, until this year though, neue klasse and even the new 7 look horrible. It seems to me that all cars are slowly becoming a homogenous box with no unqiue features, curves or colour - Kia, Huyndai, VW, anything really

[ayer @traderayer]

@sergio_tesla_ What is the logic behind calculating the match? Is it taking the pa from lets say dOpen and looking for patterns similar to that and then plotting it forwrad? am I getting that rignt?

[ayer @traderayer]

@Luckshuryy Would love to get your insights, even if it was an 1h long stream once a quarter. But I cant count how many times you promised more frequent updates with nothing to show for it. You obviously dont owe us anything but a indepth stream is better than daily posts on basic concepts.

[marintrades @marintrades]

Haven't posted about Game Theory in a while so figured I should revisit the topic and spread some "game" :

Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium

My goal today is to kinda re tweak your thought processing when it comes to scalping or in general just trading the tape/footie. How you should approach it in order to filter out whats noise and what will actually make you money.

Every aggressive buy, sell , iceberg defense , and failed auction is a signal sent by a trader whose true type you do not know. You can't know if they are informed ( you saw it on Oil futs in previous weeks - fire emoji ) , liquidating? chasing fomo? hedging? offside/trapped? The markets only job is to update beliefs from that signal.

Your mindset should be the following ( roughly ):
- observe the action
- update the probability of what type of player produced it ( you just gotta gather data around this because it will save you so much time and money )
- respond only if the updated belief justifies it

Key concept we're discussing here : You can't be treating all aggression as equal.

For example : a market buy that rips through offers and instantly stalls into heavy absorption is often a pooling signal: basically any trader type can produce it ( fomo buyers, short liquidations, execution algos, and genuinely informed buyers can all print the same tape) .
You need to understand this - if different types can CHEAPLY mimic the same action - the signal is weak , so you can't conclude " this is GIGA BULLISH GUYS 🤓☝️ " just because you saw aggression and a delta spike.

Most of your job here should be identifying scenarios that are expensive to fake , because those are the ones that actually matter and will make you money at the end of the day.

Now look at this example which is the contrast to the previous one : You see someone keeps paying spread + impact re attacks after pullbacks, absorbs counterflow, and price still can't auction back through the origin. This is closer to a separating signal because weak hands usually cannot afford to keep expressing conviction like that. Therefore you can't treat a big buy as your sole signal to go long , that is if you're not a degen perma bull ofc .

TLDR your edge is knowing what type of participant could afford to do this , and what does the markets reaction say about that probability NOW.

These you shall monitor if you don't wanna end up a broke loser 🧙‍♂️:
failed breakdowns
trapped INITIATIVE sellers/buyers
repeated bid/ask replenishment
delta/price/CVD divergences
squeeze continuation after absorption
fake breakouts that cannot attract any follow through

Cheers frens 😼

[ayer @traderayer]

@BearOnWindows95 Both the father and the mother of the family were absolutely horrible with money i.e spending cash on a new tv on black friday, but splitting medial bills in the same amount. This was consistent with all my mates that were there with me

[ayer @traderayer]

@BearOnWindows95 Back in 22/23 I was on a exchange program in the us(originally from central europe) and lived with an actual family for a year. One of the main differences that stood out to me was the first exactly what you mentioned + financing everything through credit carsa/debt