TraderJonesyX

Quant trader |7+ yrs $SPY & $TSLA & $BTC | Signals over emotions | Live updates & Discord below.

[TraderJonesyX @TraderJaxon]

I’m putting this setup on the timeline now so nobody can say it was hindsight two months from now. 🤣

This is the $SPY trade I’m waiting for.

I start scaling into puts around 769.35.

I add more around 775 if we get it.

My target is 744 by the end of October.

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

First scale into puts here at 770 for the move back down to 744 by end of October.

Today is a PRIME example of having patience for your entry.

We got it. Hitting right into this smaller golden pocket rejection point.

I add more if we see 774.

$SPY / solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr / #SP500

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

When TJ eats tacos…

Man oh mannnn when TJ EATS TACOS.

Give me 769.35 and I’ll be grabbing puts.

Golden node magnet will likely be down at 765.

$SPX $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

CHICKEN TACOS FOR MY $SPY BULLS….

Who might be in calls looking to exit at higher levels.

CHICKEN TACOS FOR MY $SPY BEARS….

Who wants to get puts with me up at 769.35-774.

See you all tomorrow. 👏

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

I personally do not see the S&P 500 making a new all time highs before we see the 740s.

I think Friday’s peak likely holds. The most I’m looking for is a push into the 769.35-772.50 golden pocket rejection point.

Minimum 3% pullback from the August close.
Target: 744 by the end of October.

Give me 769.35-774. Then give me the 740s.

Once we get down there, I���ll reevaluate and start looking for the potential next run to new highs if signals allow for it.

$SPX $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

$SPY GEX Heatmap has us continuing to stay pinned at 765 the rest of week.

Lord help us all.

Just give me a good ol gap up to 769-770 so I can fade this mofo already!

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

$QQQ up 0.13%
$SPY up 0.46%
$VIX down 5%

Interesting.

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

Everyone and their mom, dog, cat, brother, sister, aunt, uncle, and baby is waiting for that gap to fill up at 769.35 on $SPY.

Makes me wonder if they will give it to us or not...

About to open the fridge and eat some tacos right now so hopefully they will get the job done.

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

See what happens when TJ eats taco's?

Almost never fails.

Still a little room left to run.

I start puts at 769.38. Half intended size there.

solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

My monthly signals are still very much bullish on $QQQ.

For now....

It is at a value of 4.

Every time we have seen the monthly go red? We have seen a minimum drop down to the 20 DMA cloud on monthly...

Just another potential warning sign stacked on top of many others.

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

All you need to do is KISS $SPY.

Keep. It. Simple. Stupid.

Puts at 769.35 which has about a 86% chance of filling within 5 sessions and a 91% chance of filling within 10 sessions.

Calls at 755 near 50DMA / gap fill at 757.67.

We will get one of those levels soon.

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

THIS ONE IS FOR MY MOFOCKIN BULLS AND BEARS. 😂

For once, I think BOTH sides should be rooting for the exact same move on $SPY.

UP.

If you’re a bull, you want this old liquidity resistance to hold as support and $SPY to bounce back toward 770, fill those upper gaps and give you the move higher.

If you’re a bear?

You should want the exact same damn thing.

Let $SPY bounce off support. Let it push back toward 770. Let it fill those upper gaps.

Then you get the opportunity to grab shorts from a MUCH better price instead of chasing puts after the market already sold off.

I see almost ZERO reason for either side to be begging for immediate downside here.

For me, I’m currently 100% cash with what I trade $SPY with.

My plan is simple:

If we gap down into 757.67, or better yet around 755 and the 50 DMA, I’m looking for calls and a bounce.

If we push back toward 770, I’m looking for November puts.

755-757.67 is where I want calls.

770 is where I want puts.

Bull or bear, I don’t give a shit.

Give me the better entry.

For the first time in history, I am officially asking the bulls and bears of X to stop fighting and unite.

We all want 770-775. 😂

Here is my tacos this evening with homemade guacamole.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

— TJ

$SPX $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

Eating tacos tonight so the $SPY bulls can give us that gap fill from Friday at 769-770 so I can grab puts again for the ride down to my 744 target by end of October.

Will delete if wrong. 🤣

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

Our 15 million and 27 million dollar whale is still in and is chillin.

Today we are seeing more puts hit the tape.

When you filter out all of the noise and garbage flow, this is what has come in today. Lower post below ⬇️

solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

Nothing today compared to our 15 million and 27 million dollar $SPY whale. But as you can see... Much more puts than calls hitting the tape.. While down at 760 support. 👀

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

Everyone wants to know how probable it is for the gap fills on the S&P 500.

Here are your statistics.

solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr $SPY #SP500 $ES_F

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

On August 18th I warned that my daily signal was going bearish.

So far, it has been keeping us out of the entire mess.

The last 4 times the daily signal line has been red, it has taken us to a minimum price of 731.53.

My personal target by end of October is 744.

Hopefully we can get a dead cat bounce with the VIX move today to allow for another good lower high opportunity.

Bull or bear. I don't care. Just following what is in front of me.

solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

DID YOU ALL CATCH THAT DROP TO 760 ON $SPY? 👀

Golden Node warned us yesterday.

Hot dipity damn. 😂

Is it finally time for TJ to start eating tacos again?

The Golden Node for Friday is currently sitting back up around 765, so keep an eye on the latest heat map levels as they update.

There have been warning signs everywhere while $SPY has been sitting near the highs.

Yields breaking out and pushing toward 4.8%.

Trump and the uncertainty coming out of Washington.

$VIX sitting near multi year lows and complacency getting stretched.

Crude oil turning higher.

My shorter term signals flipping red.

Whales kept holding!!

All things I've been warning about for days and weeks AFTER my 780 target was reached.

Remember, I was screaming BUY down at 720 while everyone wanted 700 and 685.

I wanted 780 by August.

We got 780.

Then I stopped chasing and started warning about the downside.

Now we're knocking on 760.

That said, don't get greedy here either.

We're approaching an important level, and with $VIX making a 10%+ move, I wouldn't be surprised to see a relief bounce near this lower gap fill before the next bounce.

I have my levels.
I have my plan.

And you already know where I ultimately want this thing...

744 by the end of October. 👀
Short term bounce maybe after the 757.67 gap fill up to fill the upper two gaps.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

— TJ

solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

$VIX is up 9% today.

You know what it means if we see the VIX close greater than 10% higher in a single session right?

Is this golden node telling us something here for the VIX? $15 on the VIX soon?

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

The max pain floor for $SPY today looks to be 760.

With decent support coming in here at 762.

With a node there for Friday at 765.

The lower gap sits at 757.67 with the volume profile shelf sitting at 755 right along with where the 50 SMA is sitting.

[TraderJonesy @TraderJonesy]

I don’t think people realize how many warning signs are lining up for $SPY at the EXACT same time right now.

Forget combining thousands of random options trades together and calling it “flow.”

Different traders. Different strategies. Different timeframes. Different intentions.

That means very little to me.

I care about SIZE, TIME and URGENCY from what appears to be a concentrated buyer, especially when my signals are telling me the same thing.

And we have it.

A $14.57M buyer loaded 9/18 755 puts.

Then a $26.66M buyer loaded 11/20 750 puts.

Nearly $41 MILLION went into two massive $SPY put positions near the same time. They've taken millions in heat, yet the OI on both contracts has continued to build rather than collapse.

But the whales are only ONE piece of this.

Yields breaking out.
Daily signal red.
Weekly signal red.
Weekly / Monthly bearish divergences.
$VIX sitting near multi year support.
Oil bottoming and starting to surge.
Middle East tensions still hanging over the market.
Imbalances below us pulling toward the 750 area.

And now we're entering September and October with normal seasonality AND the midterm year seasonality I've been pounding the table about.

One thing by itself? Noise.

All of them lining up at the same time? I pay attention.

I called for 780 by end of August. We got it. Now?

My thesis remains simple.

$SPY 744 by the end of October. That is exactly a 3% drop from yesterday's close from end of August. See pinned post on what I am talking about regarding the 3% move and why.

I'm not calling for a crash. That's roughly a 3% pullback from the August close inside what can still remain a larger bullish regime.

If the data changes, I change.

But until it does?

Give me 744. Then I want to buy the damn discount.😏

— TJ

solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $CL_F #US10Y $TLT