Literally all you have to do is buy strong closes off the 20EMA on RS stocks.
Nothing else.
$ARM If you do this, you will be successful.
Many will chase though and then lose all their money on 1-2 red days.
Don't be that person.
Be the person who buys the pullback with tight risk.
Be a man.
The best technical risk on, risk off indicator in the market, especially if you’re a trend follower like me, is the weekly MACD (6,20,9).
Once MACD crosses down and price loses its uptrend, just wait for the first weekly close with a MACD up cross. That’s your confirmation.
You don’t need breadth.
You don’t need sentiment.
You don't need NAAIM.
You don't need COCK data.
You don't need an over complicated dashboard.
You don’t need any other indicator.
All of these things are noise.
You only need PRICE and MACD.
Don’t believe me?
Go back and look for yourself across any time period, then be the judge.
MACD is a timing tool. This concept applies across all timeframes, even intraday, where it helps you dial in precise entries while aligning with higher timeframe key levels.
It took me five years of relentless study and commitment to continuous improvement to boil risk on down to something this simple. If you follow a system like this with discipline, and you aren’t already, your results should go parabolic. Hope this helps. Let me know if you have questions.
In my opinion the best market filter is to have one or two moving averages on your equity curve
That way you know if your system is working or not & can size down or reduce new positions size
Many times the indexes can be distorted by rotations or stocks with high index weight
If I could go back in time and change one thing from the beginning, it wouldn’t be the strategy/indicator I chose or the market I traded. it would be learning earlier that tight risk creates asymmetric returns far more superior than win rate % in the long run.
We can trade any strategy, but our return relative to the risk we take is ultimately determined by how we define our entry-to-stop level for position sizing relative to account size/net liquidation value.
"Take your losses quickly and your profits slowly" - WON
"If you allow losses to affect your judgement, you'll inevitably make bigger mistakes". - Druckenmiller
@howardlindzon Not a single brand person I know lives in a mansion
Your average software engineer at an AI company on the other hand can afford a new G wagon every month
Trade like you had $10M or more:
• Be in the mindset that you already have enough capital. Less pressure. No need to force mediocre setups just to feel active.
• You can afford to wait patiently for the true fat-pitch trades.
• Focus on capital preservation first. One bad decision should never jeopardize your entire account.
• Size positions so that no single trade can hurt you emotionally or financially.
• Accept that most days there is nothing to do - and that’s perfectly fine.
• Think in terms of long-term equity curve, not daily P&L swings.
• Let winners run. Big accounts grow from a few large moves, not constant churning.
The paradox:
When you start trading like you already have $10M,
that’s when your account starts to compound the right way.
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Qullamaggie on Bad Markets and Dying From a Thousand Cuts
“But remember, markets need to be in an uptrend for these things to work. You know, you won’t get these types of setups when a market’s doing this or this, right? Or this. You won’t get stocks like that.
But once we start trending higher—you know—the 10-day starts turning up, the 20-day starts trending up, the 10-day goes above the 20-day… you gotta pay attention. Sometimes it may be the end of a bear market rally when you get those, or near the end of a bear market rally. So that’s why I put another filter: I used the 100-day to see if it’s sloping higher or lower.
You need to have like a green light, yellow light, red light kind of thing—to know when not to trade, when to take less size, etc.
Because trying breakouts and EPS in bad markets… it’s not gonna end well. You’re gonna die from a thousand cuts.
You really need to be super patient.”
Here is a YouTube playlist I created of 14 long-form Stanley Druckenmiller interviews I’ve found. I’ve seen most of them and am working through them again.
There is never enough listening to Stan and his wisdom.
https://t.co/YzCzfbhlhB
Great interview!
The biggest holdback of trading once you have the system down is YOURSELF. The mental game is literally what separates the good from the great.
Thank you for such an inspiring performance Chris! You've set the path for many including myself to strive for greatness!
It is wild to me that almost no trading journals plot moving averages on their equity curves.
NAV is price.
It trends, breaks, compresses, and rolls over, just like any asset.
Don't quit
Don't give up
I tell you
You don't need a complicated strategy
You just need to study, correct the errors and trade a simple strategy
I am a full time trader for over 2 decades and this is the best life ever
I promise there is an amazing future that awaits you