Trader Monk

US & Indian Markets | Trader and Long term investor.
Masters in Computer Science from Ivy League.
I study the price, time and the psychology of markets

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

Since mid July, Brent is up 24%. The US 10Y yield is up 14%, now 5.2%.

Nifty is down 6%. And $USDINR has barely moved.

Short thread on what this chart is telling me 👇

NFA #Rupee #Crude #Nifty50 #Macro

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

The flat rupee is the strange part. With crude and yields doing this, I'd have expected it to slide.

Nifty is about 1.5% above its 52-week low.

Honestly the chart I check most these days isn't Nifty. It's Brent.

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

Since mid July, Brent is up 24%. The US 10Y yield is up 14%, now 5.2%.

Nifty is down 6%. And $USDINR has barely moved.

Short thread on what this chart is telling me 👇

NFA #Rupee #Crude #Nifty50 #Macro

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

Then US yields. 5.2% on a 10-year Treasury.

If foreign money can get that in dollars, it needs a good reason to sit in Indian stocks with the rupee near 97. Tough sell right now.

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

$BANKNIFTY up 1.5% in the rate hike week. Nifty Realty down 3.7%.

Lenders charge more, home buyers pay more. The market did the obvious thing for once.

Anyone still house hunting at these rates?

NFA #BankNifty #NiftyRealty #RBIPolicy #StockMarketIndia

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

@stockifiabhijit Agreed, but Indian scriptures go way beyond.
The mental states and the passions that can cloud human judgement :

Kāma - Lust
Krodha - Anger
Lobha - Greed
Mada - Ego
Moha - Delusion
Mātsarya - Envy

Either of these can make any human lose everything and anything w/o control.

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

$NIFTY finally closed a week higher. First time in 9 weeks.

Up 0.4%. Weekly candle is still red though, since it opened above last Friday's close.

Two months waiting for a green week and it doesn't even look green.

NFA #Nifty50 #StockMarketIndia #NSE

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

@Rishikesh_ADX 💯

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

@stockifiabhijit The reduce them part took me two years. Still working on "embrace" them

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

@Akshat_World Nifty IT was up 3% today on the TCS numbers though. Market isn't writing IT off yet. If anything good time to cover shorts and exit trad IT and move to new age-tech

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

@nakulvibhor Band reported at 1065 to 1119 now. Do you see it cooling before listing ?

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

@piyushchaudhry VIX dropped to 14.4 today anyway. Market didn't wait for them

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

RBI tightened bank cash rules after the close.

From Oct 16 banks must hold 99% of their CRR every day, up from 90%. Less spare cash around.

$SBIN closed at the day high, near 960. None of this was in the price.

Monday open should be fun.

NFA #RBI #SBI #BankNifty #Liquidity

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

$SENSEX in October, last 14 years: 10 up, 4 down. Average gain 1.8%.

One of its better months, on paper.

Seasonality is a lovely chart right up until the market reads it.

NFA #StockMarketIndia #Nifty50 #Seasonality #BSE

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

The RBI hiked rates this week. The rupee still lost ground.

$USDINR ended near 96.7, about 0.5% weaker on the week and a whisker from the 97.05 high. ET blames outflows and weak sentiment.

So what actually turns it, if a hike didn't?

NFA #Rupee #RBIPolicy #Forex #FII

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

Monday's map, scored.

22620: back above it Tue, lost it Wed.
22180: Thursday's low was 22179.9. Touched the line and bounced.

The green week from this morning's poll? Got it. Just about.

$BANKNIFTY up 1.4% today, a bit ahead of Nifty.

NFA #Nifty50 #BankNifty #NSE #PriceAction

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

Your home loan just got a bit pricier.

PNB, Indian Bank and BoI lifted repo-linked rates by 25 bps after the RBI hike.

Bank stocks didn't mind. $PNB near 116, Bank Nifty back above 55000.

Anyone refinancing this month?

NFA #PNB #RBIPolicy #BankNifty #PSUBank

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

@ganesh__47 Lets see

[Trader Monk @tradermonk_x]

IT forgot it's a bear market this morning.

TCS opened barely up on the results, then got bought past 2170. $INFY tagging along above 1020.

Nifty's back near last Friday's close. Hold it till 3:30 and the red-week run ends.

NFA #TCS #NiftyIT #Q2Results #Nifty50