$BTC Market thread Update, in partnership with @_WOO_X
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$BTC Levels / Structure
Price still failed to sustain the bounce from earlier
Technically we have filled LTF inefficiencies on this dump
Two major areas for structure:
- $69K (previous ATH & Supply)
- $65K (mid range pivot)
I think it's extremely important for bulls to show up soon if a higher low is to develop
- Spot Demand/Absorption of sellers
The risk for this trend is weakness sustained below $65K
$BTC 4H Systematic trend
Once again price is testing the key 4H 200EMA & in confluence with 4H pivot area of $66K - $65.5K
Momentum for now seems to be towards the downside so defensive positioning till absorption of sellers has been seen
Previous bounce was a clean systematic rejection of 4H 21EMA & RSI 50 as well spot supply (nuke)
$BTC Binance Spot
Strong 4H resistance around $72K with spot supply & consistent limit selling into price around $71.5K
The good news though is increasing spot demand starting around $65K & significantly around $60K
Looks like large spot buyers are looking to be filled in this pullback
$BTC Aggregate CVDs & Delta
Still seeing pretty consistent chasing from limit sellers especially on LTF bounces (supply)
Takers are being forced to realise losses in this decline which has been adding to the sell momentum
local lows are often when there's limit buyers absorbing this sell flow as well the confluence of sell momentum weakening -> base structure
The labor market is softening up.
New hires are dropping.
Job openings are dropping.
Job quits are dropping.
The YoY % change of employment level (household survey) is also dropping.
$BTC Binance Spot
Note the ask wall above price, often if not filled by takers is used to bait takers to puke which pushes price lower
$BTC Binance Futures
Fairly obvious what the intention is here looking at futures orderbook, stacked perp bids and sizeable ask around the high
Weekend meme price action in the making
New narratives tend to outperform.
• ERC-20 → BRC-20 $ORDI
• Monolithic → Modular $TIA
• AI → Machine Learning $TAO
• LSD → Restaking $EIGEN
And, L2➡️zk-Rollup $STRK
Next 10x plays likely found in Starknet.
Reasons to think so🧵
$BTC Weekly Open market thread, in partnership with @_WOO_X
$BTC 1W
Pretty inconclusive weekly range still, chop chop
$BTC 4H
Price is back at yearly open again & 4H/1D trend this is essentially the key area for bulls to hold else I would be looking for confirmations of bears taking control
RSI/Stoch showing relative weakness in current momentum, can change with spot buying which is when market orderflow becomes important
$BTC Binance Spot
Still fairly wide price range between pockets of limit bids & limit asks
Seeing more limit bids between $42K - $40K, important on dips to see if there's absorption of sellers
$43.5K - $45K has a decent amount of asks so to fill those or test $45K will require substantial spot taker bid
Orderbook depth zones:
$45K - $50K ~ Spot Supply (thick ask depth)
$38K - $35K ~ Spot Demand (thick bid depth)
$BTC Aggregate CVDs & Delta
Firstly the most apparent thing here is the Spot CVDs, quite flat compared to price bleeding lower this is typically from constant limit selling into price on spot exchanges
Perp CVDs continue to move lower with price which is expected & points out lack of interest to be long in the current market and more interest to be short
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