The Traders Spread

Leading global source for information and resources for traders

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

USDA cut the US cotton crop 3%. December cotton is down 6.1% since.

The report didn't move price. Positioning did.

• Funds: 74K net short in March, 101K long by Sep
• ~9% of that length has left
• Price: -11% from the high

The exit has barely started.

https://t.co/8GG5oX14xd

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

The Fed pays a full point more than the Bank of Korea. The won rallies anyway.

• USD/KRW: -13% since 1 July
• Fed 4.00% top vs BoK 3.00%
• 1-20 Sep chip exports: +259% y/y
• Brent +22%, won at a 23-month high

The rate gap isn't driving this. Chips are.

https://t.co/SqmU7zS6W0

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

$AMGN jumped 4.3% on a Phase 3 win in Sjögren's.

It still hasn't undone a trial miss that wasn't its own.

• 22 Sep close: $410.24
• 8 Sep: -10.08% on Novartis' pelacarsen miss
• Still 6.2% below its 4 Sep close

One win, half a recovery.

https://t.co/GUoY4WJyr0

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

$DRV is up 208%. Headlines credit the Derive V3 proposal.

But a day after it was posted, the token was 5.3% lower.

• 15 Sep Upbit volume: 0.31bn won
• 16 Sep: 38.73bn won, ~125x
• 30-day fees: ~$630K, unchanged

The rally began on a Korean order book.

https://t.co/bvOUlFIHUv

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Romania's next-PM market prices the loser of the nomination at 33.3%, the designate at 17.85%.

Nazare fell 52.85% to 12.35% in eight hours, then came back.

His three parties hold 170 of the 233 votes needed
PSD voted against on 21 Sep
$3.96m matched

https://t.co/7o4JcH9ZL8

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

StatCan cut Canada's oat crop 22.7% and oats settled at $4.16.

The weather did almost none of it.

Yield down just 3.5%, 4th highest on record
Harvested area down 19.9%
20 reportable traders hold 3,132 lots

Farmers planted less. That is the shortage.

https://t.co/IuIQjeGLsZ

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

ZAMA doubled to $0.0955 in a week, not on the day the vaults opened.

15 and 16 September printed identical.

+64% between 18 and 20 September
Turnover $13m to $147m
$54.6m in the four confidential-only vaults

Fees burn, but 5% a year is still minted.

https://t.co/dmSIqKE8Eo

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

$WBD closed at $30.80, 20 cents under the $31.00 cash price.

That meter is why Paramount settled Monday.

$0.00277778 per share per day after 30 Sep
~$6.97m a day across 2.51bn shares
234.1m shares, ~11x average

The spread is a calendar, not a view.

https://t.co/3zMnbyTWcO

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

The BoJ hiked to 1.25% on Friday and AUD/JPY went up 1.5%.

The carry gap did not narrow, it widened.

RBA-BoJ spread 2.85pp on 1 Jan, 3.10pp from 24 Sep
112.25 Monday fix, +15.1% in a year
167 of 184 fixes above the 2007 peak

The hike cut the wrong way.

https://t.co/26K0d1kWQF

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

BoJ hiked to 1.25%. EUR/JPY had its biggest up-day since March.

+1.23% on the 18 Sep fix, 178.75 to 180.94
Real-rate gap: roughly zero (-0.70 vs -0.65)
MoF yen buying this year: ¥27.1tn

Carry can't explain a 180 handle. Tokyo explains the ceiling.

https://t.co/fALtgtC6hb

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

$OP rose 31.9% in the week Upgrade 20 passed. The upgrade is not why.

Arbitrum, no upgrade, no vote: +27.4%
Voters: 156 addresses
Against: 0.13% of voting power vs a 20% veto line

This was a Layer 2 beta trade that landed in an upgrade week.

https://t.co/PgnpfPY16V

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

CDU at 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Polymarket prices Merz out by year-end at 23.5%.

The risk is in the wrong month.

19 of 23.5 pts placed before 31 Oct
Only 4.5 pts for Nov-Dec
Budget final vote: 27 Nov

Our fair value for the year-end leg: 16%.

https://t.co/553OoZM5fw

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Feedlot placements hit the lowest August on record. Cattle on feed still rose.

Placements: 1.617m head, -9.2%
On feed 1 Sep: 11.163m, +0.7%
Cash steers: $222.82/cwt vs $262.85 in May

Cattle are held longer, come out heavier. Fewer head, not less beef.

https://t.co/ff8vZdgGqE

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Lock-ups are supposed to sink a stock. $SPCX rose through three of them.

41.0% gain since 5 Aug
~1/3 of the lock-up pool freed
$6.5bn Valor hand-out on 11 Sep, tape barely moved

Fourth release lands Thursday. 183m more shares sit in Valor's plan.

https://t.co/5zTAwEXqNB

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Zinc's backwardation was $217 on 27 August. It's $79 now.

LME stocks rose 32.04% over the same stretch.

+27,725t since 18 Aug, 18,500t on two days
Refined H1 surplus: 120,000t
Mine output -2.6%

$217 was 21.13% annualised on no directional risk.

https://t.co/zpJIrMI4mV

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

ECB hiked to 2.50% on 10 Sep. BoE held at 3.75% a day later.

Policy gap 125bp. The 2y spread prices 152.9bp.

2y gilt 4.7617%, Schatz 3.2332%
UK 2y: +101.2bp over Bank Rate
Bund 2y: +73.3bp over deposit

Sterling is paid for 28bp the BoE hasn't done.

https://t.co/Tuh2cAHqw9

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

FedEx retired $4.86bn of bonds in July at 85c on the dollar.

In September it sold $3.36bn of new notes.

Retired: 4.098% coupon, 2044 avg
New: 4.752%, due 2030–2036
$FDX debt: $14.24bn → $17.64bn

71 cents of every dollar came back 65bp dearer.

https://t.co/R03Hxmz3F0

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Ondo rose 11.1% in 31 hours on the SEC's "innovation exemption."

Tier 1 tokenized stock is capped at 0.25% of a symbol's monthly volume.

$ONDO: $0.3283 → $0.3857
Global Markets collateral: $934.58m
Peak: $1,203.09m, 1 June

None of it is covered.

https://t.co/o5Gfi2gPrb

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Polymarket's TIME Person of the Year board: $50,269 of lifetime volume.

Four legs took $378 of that — and set 24.8 of the board's 158.2 points.

Midpoints sum to 158.2%
Best offers, 214.5%
Best bids, 101.9%

0.75% of the money sets 15.7% of the board.

https://t.co/Chew62IEUC

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Polymarket has Harry Kane at 56.35% for the 2026 Ballon d'Or.

He shed 4.55 points after Yamal's third straight brace on 13 September.

Voting closed 19 July 2026
Kalshi 57c/58c
De-vigged bookie median 54.45%

The market is repricing a sealed ballot.

https://t.co/Oz8p0pjYYX