Trader Per Caso

My journey in the Sport Trading world.

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

@12Xpert Hi! Not sure if someone already mentioned this (sorry if so), but I noticed the results of the last 3 ATP tournaments seem mixed up — Argentina Open’s data looks like Rotterdam’s, Rotterdam’s looks like Dallas’, and so on. Could you please check? Thanks a lot! 🙏

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

@12Xpert I’m sad to read this. Unfortunately, I couldn’t help via Bet365 since I’m not based in the UK, but if there’s any other way I can support what you’re doing, I’d be happy to consider it.

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

@12Xpert No worries man, you're doing an incredible job! Thanks a lot!

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

@12Xpert I noticed some issues as well with the Pinnacle odds for Italian Serie B matches. The draw odds for some games seem off—resulting in negative margins. Also, another one has an extremely low margin compared to the usual for the league. Can you check? Thanks a lot!

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

@12Xpert Thank you very much! I could do what I needed to even with those 5 mins. ;)

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

@12Xpert I’m sorry if I wasn't clear - my english is not that good! 😅 I was referring to the pre-match data for Round 35 of the Italian Serie B, which will be played today. Of course, the matches scheduled for last Monday will resume on May 13th.

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

@modewarriors @AlKavadlo Thanks I’ll check them out!

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

Bought it since I read online saying it is the Bible of bodyweight training.
Never heard of a more overrated claim!

#calisthenics #overcominggravity

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

@Michele17166365 Per quanto ho analizzato sembra che stats e xG primo tempo abbiano pochissimo impatto sul numero di goal nel sh. Oltretutto sembrano avere poco impatto anche sull’eventualità che ci possa essere o meno un altro goal.

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

Do you think that first half actions and stats can predict the number of goals scored in the second half of a football match? 🏟️📊 #FootballAnalytics #DataScience #SoccerStats

[Sofascore Football @Sofascore]

🌍 | 🇸🇲 San Marino 1–0 Liechtenstein 🇱🇮

• Possession: 41% – 59%
• Shots (on target): 8 (2) – 8 (0)
• Touches in pen. area: 10 – 16
• Accurate passes: 235 – 361

For the first time ever, San Marino have won a competitive football match! 👏👏

#NationsLeague

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

Just analyzed xG vs. total goals in a single match—correlation (Pearson) is moderate at 0.53. While it's better than using total shots or corners, it's quite similar to just using shots on target as a predictor.

#FootballAnalytics #xG

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

Analyzed 3,945 football matches across major European tournaments (2022-2024):

Average xG per match: 2.81
Average goals scored per match: 2.86

While the sample isn't huge, xG seems to be a strong predictor of goals.

#footballtrading #xg #football

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

@micdangelo29 Non ne posso essere sicuro. Ma suppongo abbiano avuto meno utenti (quindi meno entrate) di quanto preventivato. Nel comunicato scrivono che la loro licenza AAMS scade a fine anno e che verrà rinnovata. Per loro scelta suppongo.

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

Pinnacle will cease is activity on the Italia market by the end of the year. That’s a shame. A real shame.

#pinnacle

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

@HarryDCrane I am. And I’m finding it very informative!

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

I've just scraped and recreated the actual Attack Momentum from Sofascore in Python.
What will I do with this? Most likely nothing at all 😅

[Trader Per Caso @traderxcaso]

If you noticed a bias in past results in some betting market, it doesn't mean it will appear again in future outcomes.
So be wary of betting gurus telling you to constantly bet on a certain outcome in a particular market just because past performance yielded a positive return.

[The xG Philosophy @xGPhilosophy]

England have created an average of 0.88(xG) over their Euro 2024 matches.

For context, Luton Town averaged 1.23(xG) in Premier League games last season.